The more I look at this, the more I don't like it. This could turn out to be the biggest severe weather event so far this season. I'm confident there will be an outbreak of severe weather (wind and hail). However, will there be an outbreak of tornadoes? While the data points to that, I urge caution and hope it doesn't happen. When I talk to schools I always teach what I call the "tornado cake". If all the ingredients are present, tornadoes form. If you're lacking just one ingredient, it doesn't turn out right and tornadoes don't form. It's sort of like baking a cake. You leave out the sugar and it's not happening. While this is a couple days away, much can change. What if the instability is lower than expected? There are many variables we will watch to see how this comes together. Again, we are confident there will be severe weather, but an outbreak of tornadoes is questionable. Looking at the data this morning, it's a definite possibility. One more threat on the table is flash flooding. A few inches will be possible.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a rare moderate risk for severe weather in its 3 day convective outlook. This indicates their high confidence severe weather will occur due to model agreement.
The severe threat may linger into Monday and Tuesday depending on how fast the front exits the state. There are signs the upper flow may run parallel to the front. This could stall the front keeping the threat for heavy rain and severe weather in the forecast Monday and again Tuesday. The favored area at that time will be eastern Arkansas. Again, this is still subject to change so stay tuned.
Some of the maps below are from weatherbell.com
|This is the GFS indicating areas of rain and storms over the state between 7AM and 1PM Sunday. While there will be the chance for some severe weather at this time, the greater threat arrives later in the day.|
|Rain and storms should increase over western and southwestern Arkansas between 1PM and 7PM. The GFS is indicated much of this will be convective. We can only hope instability values are not too high.|
|Between 7PM and 1AM Monday, the storminess shifts into eastern Arkansas. However, notice the surface low is still over northern Oklahoma. The front is still to the west and this could keep the atmosphere unstable going into Monday.|
|By Monday at 7AM, the front is still over eastern OK and the entire state is still in the "warm sector". This opens the window to the possibility for more severe weather Monday.|
|Here's the risk area from SPC Sunday.|
|This is the risk area Monday as the front slows|
|And Tuesday as the front continues its slow trek across the state.|
|Flooding will be a concern. At least 1-3 inches will be possible over that 3 day stretch. The highest amounts will be across the eastern half of the state since they will be more susceptible to storms in the warm sector ahead of the front.|