As I look out the window, there are a lot of clouds and drizzle around Little Rock at 9:30 AM. That's a good thing. However, the models are forecasting instability levels to increase significantly this afternoon and this could lead to the development of thunderstorms. Some of which could be severe. The main threats will be wind and hail.
Like I mentioned Thursday, I'm also watching Monday afternoon and evening as another cold front swings through the state. This will be followed by a cooler and more stable air mass and that should last a few days.
|3PM Friday. Just like yesterday, this simulated radar from the HRRR is not perfect, but it can give us a good idea of what radar should look like. Scattered (hit and miss) thunderstorms should begin to develop around this time frame.|
|5PM Friday, scattered thunderstorms continue.|
|6PM today, the storms are shifting into southern, eastern, and northeastern Arkansas.|
|8PM, the storms start to gel into a large area of rain and thunder over southern and eastern Arkansas.|
|9PM, the storms continue.|
|Here's what the surface map should look like next Monday morning. A strong front will develop west of us and push into the state later that day. It's possible to have a strong or severe storm at that time along with more heavy rainfall.|
|There's concern for more flash flooding across western Arkansas where the ground is saturated from heavy rains Thursday. This indicates 2-4'' of additional rainfall could fall across western Arkansas. Flash flood watches may be needed Monday.|