Tuesday, August 19, 2014

100 Degrees In Sight?

I said there's a 70 percent chance we will not hit 100 degrees this summer and my optimism may go down in flames... literally.  It's going to get hot... REAL HOT late this week into the beginning of next week before any sort of cool down can occur.

IF we hit 100 degrees, it will be the 2nd latest first 100 degree day in Little Rock weather history.  The first latest 100 degree day is September 6th, 1922.   Hopefully the models are running a little too hot with their output and that has been the case this summer.  Also, any moisture in the ground will also slow the ascent to triple digit heat.  No matter what, the heat index will be outrageous this week.  That "feels like" temperature will be around 105 degrees or higher and heat advisories may be required. 

The models are hinting at some tropical development later next week in the Gulf of Mexico.  The Tuesday overnight run of the GFS brought a hurricane up into the northern Gulf and then the next run shifted it further into the eastern Gulf.  Bottom line, don't hang your hat on any one solution, but let's watch this.   We are going into the most active time of the year for tropical storms/hurricanes.  It's wayyyyyy too early to say if anything will develop and if it does, where it will go.

Below are maps from weatherbell.com


GFS temperatures just off the surface Friday high temperatures may be near 100.

Highs Saturday afternoon will get very close to 100 degrees.  Remember, the heat index will be around 105 or higher.
Sunday's highs (August 25th) could be right at 100 degrees.
Monday looks like a sizzler too with triple digit heat according to this model.
And next Tuesday could be horrible too. 
The GFS on Tuesday August 26th into the 27th shows an impressive tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.  DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY!  THIS WILL CHANGE!  It's impossible to predict something like this when it's a week away.  Just know we're watching for possible development and check back!

2 comments:

SnowbirdBob said...

Hello Everyone, It has been a couple of years since I made a post on the Arkansas Weather Blog. I hope everyone is doing fine. I would first like to give a Big "Thank You to Todd & Ninja" for all of there pointers over the years, because without those two & of course the good Lord I wouldn't be where I am today. I would also like to say I am sorry for any harm that I may have caused with my Wishcasting back then, I have learned to be much more responsible & YES..Conservative over the last 2 years. Thanks to Todd & Ninja once again. Even though I do my own thing now, I still think the Arkansas Weather Blog is the Best Weather Site in the Southern United States. For those that wonder " I still check out the Blog for Todd's Tips ;) Y'all have a great Fall & Winter.. Hopefully we can get some good Snowstorms this year.

Anonymous said...

Todd. This heat has been killing me lately. Give us a glimmer of a hope, a light at the end of the tunnel here?