Thursday, November 06, 2014

Fireplace Weather Arriving Next Week



As discussed here on the Arkansas Weather Blog over the past few days, I'm becoming very convinced a strong shot of very cold air will cruise down the plains next Tuesday (November 11th) and lock in place for a few days... at least.  This set-up is classic for the delivery of arctic air into the central and eastern United States.  When you see a strong ridge extending up the west coast into Alaska, it dislodges the cold air and sends it south.  That's why many times you will hear Alaskan temperatures are above average while we go well below.

What about record lows?  With a pattern like this, you gotta look at them.  HOWEVER, wind speeds could stay elevated and there may be cloud cover from time to time.  This would prevent temperatures from dropping off significantly at night.  This will also keep readings cooler during the day.  The records for coldest high temperatures next week are generally in the mid and upper 30s.  Not impossible to break, but most of the data I have looked at keeps highs in the low to mid 40s and I'll show that to you with model data below.  One other point, with winds blowing, wind chill temperatures may drop into the teens and 20s!  Now the next thing I know you're asking... any moisture?  I think it will stay mostly dry, but we must watch for possible LIGHT precipitation.  Nothing major whatsoever.

Getting shots of arctic air into Arkansas in early to mid November is nothing unusual.  Some of you may have heard me talk about 11/11/11.  November 11, 1911.  This will NOT rival that, but that was the date of an historic arctic outbreak.  For some locations across northern Arkansas, it's the greatest 24 hour temperature range on record going from the warm weather ahead of the front to the frigid air behind it.  For example, Fayetteville had a high of 81 degrees on the 11th, then a low of 9 degrees the next morning.  Harrison had a high of 76, then a low of only 5 degrees a few short hours later.  In Little Rock, the temperature went from 81 degrees on the 11th to 22 degrees on the morning of the 12th.  While we won't see that, it's just a reminder we can have some very changeable weather around here in November.  You know my saying, "Never Say Never To Arkansas Weather".

The following maps are from the overnight run of the European model courtesy of weatherbell.com


Tuesday November 11th at noon.  There's a huge spread in temperatures from NW to SE as the front slices through the state.  Readings will be in the low to mid 40s NW to near 70 southeast.

High temperatures next Wednesday only in the 40s for much of the state.  There's the potential according to other data which suggests, it COULD be a bit colder than this.
Thursday high temperatures don't change much.  The Euro has it in the low to mid 40s for most of the state.
Friday November 14th highs could be in the 30s NW to 40s elsewhere.
Now, let's look at lows.  Again, this is from the Euro courtesy of weatherbell.com.  Due to wind and possible clouds, there may not be a much of a difference between highs and lows.  Wednesday morning could see lows in the low 30s north to mid and upper 30s central and low 40s south.
Thursday morning lows in the 20s and 30s
Saturday morning lows generally in the 30s.
NOAA 6-10 day temperature outlooks shows a very likely chance for well below average temperatures.
NOAA 8-14 day outlook continues that trend.  Could we go into the end of November "Cold Turkey"?  It's possible. 

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