Friday, January 09, 2015

Sunday Ice Update


10:15AM Friday Update.... the latest data continues to bring in morning freezing rain and change it over to plain rain my mid to late morning across much of the metro.  Amounts should not be much, but enough to cause a few slick spots.  The highest concern will be western Arkansas, especially the higher elevations.  The combination of the coldest air and the most moisture will be found there.  It's Friday and the forecast may need tweaking a little as we go through today and Saturday.  Once again, I do not expect this to be a major storm whatsoever.  But when it comes to freezing rain, just a very very little can cause a few travel concerns.

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I really do not think this will turn out as an "ice storm" for most.  Yes, there will be some freezing rain, but the question remains, how long will it last?  All the models indicate the highest threat for ice will be during the morning with a change over to plain rain late morning into the afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing.  History tells us the models usually warm us up too quickly with an arctic airmass in place.  Therefore, I think the best forecast is to hold onto the chance for freezing rain just a little while longer towards noon and early afternoon, especially for western, central, and northern Arkansas.  What about amounts?  Ice storm criteria is .25'' and it could get close to that in the higher elevations of western Arkansas, but I think lesser amounts elsewhere.  It doesn't take much to cause slick spots on the roads.  I think that is a threat for many areas Sunday morning, then it improves later in the day.  Temperatures just around 32 degrees should keep the roads alright with even a little insolation and heat from cars. Bridges and overpasses are still issues though at that temperature.   It's when you get down into the upper 20s to 30 degrees those roads will be an issue and that could happen in the morning.  The models this Friday morning have trended a bit warmer Sunday, so we'll have to see if that's a trend.  I really hate ice and would much rather have snow!

There is a weak disturbance moving in next Wednesday.  At this time, I think it's possible for a few areas of flurries or very light now.  At this time, I do not think this is going to be a big storm whatsoever, but it's worth watching.

The following weather maps are from weatherbell.com

North American Model showing precipitation from midnight Sunday to 3AM.
3AM to 6AM Sunday
9am to noon Sunday

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I could have sworn this winter was predicted by weatherbell or JB to be worse than the last one. With the January thaw coming, it looks like we have February and maybe the first half of March left. What a let down.