The forecast for the very minor snow event over northern Arkansas worked out well. I'm very impressed with the performance of our new hi-res Futurecast. Our good snows never come from the north. You must have cold air in place or cold air moving in as a surface low tracks south of the state.
I want to thank you for the feedback in the previous blog post. It seems many want video blogs and a few like the written ones. I will continue to do both and that will hopefully keep everyone happy. I think a good snow for the entire state would be the best for raising every ones spirits.
The Pacific air I have been talking about will flood much of the western half of the country, including Arkansas this weekend, with warmer air. While I do think temperatures will be well above average, I'm concerned a few clouds may prevent temperatures from reaching their maximum potential. The models even show this at times with areas of cool in a sea of warmth. Regardless, the weekend will feature highs in the 60s and maybe even lower 70s. That enormous Pacific jet will bring almost 18 inches of rain to northern California into the Pacific Northwest. That's where we want a ridge to be in place to deliver cold air here. The models do relax that jet, and a ridge does build next week over that area. That will shut off the Pacific moisture and allow the jet to tap into colder Canadian and arctic air. It does cool down next week, but nothing drastic. I will watch next Thursday for a stronger cold front. The GFS is very strong with it and brings in well below average temperatures while the Euro only brings in readings which would be a little below average. Way too early to tell the strength of it.
Most of the following weather maps are courtesy of Weatherbell.
|That Pacific jet will scream and 7 day rain totals could reach 18 inches. This may make news headlines.|
|Highs Saturday afternoon area in the 60s.|
|Highs Sunday are in the 60s to near 70, but look at the cooler air south. That MIGHT be due to some cloud cover.|
|This is the GFS and it's much colder than the Euro next Friday the 13th. It only has highs in the low to mid 30s. That's quite a change from the 60s this weekend! It has everything to do with that jet stream changing configuration explained above.|