Monday, September 21, 2015

WINTER FORECAST 2015-2016

Full credit to Meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics for this winter forecast.  Joe has proven to be a very reliable long range forecaster.  While we stick to forecasts within the next 7 to 10 days at Channel 7, Joe is one of the best researching long range patterns and signals.

Please put this forecast in context.  Central Arkansas averages 3.5 inches of snow per year.  If Joe forecasts 150 to 200% of average, that's roughly 5-7 inches.  I have seen that much snow fall in just a few short hours.  As far as temperatures are concerned, he is forecasting seasonal temperatures about 3 degrees below average.  That's chilly!

There's no doubt you will hear the term, "El Nino" in the media, but that's only one piece of the puzzle.  There are other factors influencing our weather.  I'll give you an example.  A few years ago, a La Nina was occurring.  Forecasts were for a dry and mild winter, but it turned out to be one of the coldest and snowiests in more than 20 years.  Why?  The Arctic Oscillation was strongly negative for most of the winter and that tends to suppress the storm track pushing cold air deep into the south.  The AO is tough to forecast more than a couple weeks out.  

Again, Joe has done a great job and his forecasts deserve you attention.  Check out his blog at Weatherbell.com and follow him on twitter @BigJoeBastardi.

Central Arkansas average temperatures and snowfall.
    

    

1 comment:

Scottie Gillespie said...

Joe Bastardi is an awesome long range weather analyst. He is usually more right than wrong. Being a retired analyst I appreciate his analysis that takes decades of data into consideration.
And I really appreciate your blog Todd. I'll be looking for your other postings. Thank you so much.