Here we go with another round of fall thunderstorms as our secondary severe weather season is in high gear. Thankfully, the last round of storms wasn't all that bad. As we focus on this next round, there are a couple things that really stand out to me as I analyze the data. First, the system Wednesday is a quick mover. Second, the corridor for severe weather potential over Arkansas is quite narrow as instability will be in question. Since this system will move quickly and the area of thunderstorm potential will be narrow, I don't expect flooding to be an issue.
There are other factors we need to consider. This is a very strong area of low pressure moving into the central United States. The air aloft is super cold. This can help promote the development of severe weather. All of the models agree the track of the low should be well north of the state. I think it's closer to that track where you will find the worst weather. So northern Arkansas up into Missouri will really need to watch this. That does not mean other areas of the state are immune and things can't change since it's a couple days away.