As I look at the data today (Tuesday), I am cautiously optimistic we can escape with minimal severe weather, but remember, it only takes one. With that said, I DO NOT WANT ANYONE TO LET THEIR GUARD DOWN! I still think thunderstorms will develop, but the worst of this may be up into Missouri and Iowa.
At this time, it looks like wind shear is plentiful. If storms were to get going, they would have the ability to develop rotation.
Now onto instability. That's in question. There will be some, but not a ton and the corridor of instability is very narrow as the front sweeps across the state. Since this is a quick moving system, where rainfall (storms) do occur, flooding should not be an issue.
Once again, we MUST keep an eye to the sky Wednesday, but I think the worst of this will be well north of Arkansas.
|Late afternoon instability is present, but not in huge amounts. Notice how narrow the area is!|
|There will be large amounts of spin in the lower atmosphere along and ahead of the front.|
|While simulated radar is NOT perfect, this is valid late Wednesday afternoon and it shows a broken line of showers and thunderstorms from north central Arkansas into southwestern areas of the state.|
|Most of the state has a slight risk for severe weather. There will be a 15% chance for severe weather (wind, hail, and an isolated tornado) within 25 miles of a given point.|
|The storm prediction center (SPC) has identified northern Missouri, western Illinois, and southern Iowa for a higher threat for severe weather. Once again, we can't let our guard down.|