Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Massive Outbreak of Flurries?

That headline is just a little sarcasm.  I really don't know what has gotten into me lately, but it all started Monday night watching the returns from the Iowa Hawkeye Caukeye ( a little rhyming there).  Cable news graphics had Hillary Clinton at 50%, Sanders at 50%, and OMalley at 1%.  Math is hard, huh? 101% of the vote?  LOL!  That's as far into politics you will see me go on this blog!

Anyway, models continue to indicate a nice blast of cold air next week with an upper level flow out of the north and northwest.  There MIGHT be embedded disturbances in that flow that can kick off a few areas of flurries and snow showers.  This is NOT how we get big snows in Arkansas, but you can see some minor accumulations, especially in the higher elevations of northern Arkansas.  These disturbances will be moisture starved, but cold air does squeeze some moisture out.  So if you're wanting more snow, there MIGHT be a little.

The Operational Euro shows a large trough of low pressure digging early next week with a blast of cold air.  The flow over Arkansas will be out of the north and northwest.

The Euro shows the potential for a few areas of light snow or flurries late Monday.  Anything out of this type of pattern is typically minor.

The GFS shows basically the same thing.
IN SUMMARY... The cold is coming back next week, but at this time, significant widespread snow looks unlikely.  Can this change, YEP!  Models have been nothing short of horrible this winter.  However, it's hard to ignore the current data.

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