So no tornadoes?
While I agree with you Todd on Southwest Arkansas getting the most rain I think one thing you are leaving out is how topography is going to have a big play in this. The Ouachita mountains and the Ozark mountains will act as a blocking mechanism thus there will be more rain that predicted particulary in the Arkansas River Valley from Clarksville to Russellville to Clinton. With situations like this, areas especially down in the valleys could easily get a foot of rain due to blocking/geographical location. I don't think you've got the heavy rainfall amounts like the 5-7 inches far enough to the west and north. The Euro EPS has shown for the last 4 runs the same areas getting the most rainfall (Ouchaitas and the River Valley) and the NAM is finally getting on board too so I turn more toward the Euro/NAM than the GFS/GEM but that's just my 2 cents.
Thank you very much for the above comment. Very interesting analysis! I do agree the higher elevations of western Arkansas could enhance rainfall amounts with added orographic lift. However, with the River Valley running basically SE to NW, their amounts might be a bit less. Regardless, lots of rain. Thanks again for your input!!!
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