Friday, September 23, 2016

Arkansas Leans Euro

You see all these political polls nowadays with states leaning GOP and leaning DEM.  My forecast usually leans Euro over the GFS.  I hate saying that, but the European model does an overall better job.

I want to show you how drastic a change the forecast for Monday is undergoing because the GFS is now catching up to the European's slower frontal boundary movement.  While the end result is about the same between the two models, cooler air next week, forecasting the boundary location is the big question for Monday!

Remember, the European model has shown highs in the 80s and 90s Monday consistently.  Here are the past two 12Z runs.

The following maps are from EuroWX.com and Weatherbell.com
The 12Z run of the Euro today shows a HUGE temperature contrast from north to south Monday for highs.  70s north behind the front with 80's and 90s ahead of it.  This makes more sense given the upper pattern with the trough going to the SW U.S and another piece going to the Great Lakes.  This would push the front in from north to south and the Ozarks would slow the southward push allowing for another hot day before the cool down Tuesday.

The 12Z run Thursday had the same idea as todays run.
The 12Z run of the GFS Thursday showed high temperatures next Monday only in the 50s and 60s as it pushed the front through too rapidly.  It took most of its upper level energy north of the state instead of leaving some behind in the southwest U.S. 

Today's run (Friday) now has highs in the 70 and 80s.  It's getting warmer with each run for Monday!  This is due to the slower frontal movement.

Why am I posting this?  Just an illustration as to why I like to look at the Euro so much.  Not always right, but if I was a betting person, I'd put money on it.

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