Thursday, December 29, 2016

Mild To Wild Next Week

2:30PM Thursday Update... This is a classic example why I always say "things change".  One model run shows tons of snow, then the next shows just a little.  I'm willing to bet the next model run shows something completely different when it comes in tonight.

Then what is the data trying to tell us for the end of next week?  With cold air in place, there's a chance SOME moisture could get involved.  Timing, strength, and location are absolutely IMPOSSIBLE to pin down this far in advance.  There's even a chance NOTHING happens.  Trust me, as a snow lover, I'm rooting for snow!!!!!!!!!  My objective is to be right and not wishcast a snow storm!

This is going to be fun to follow next week and I can't thank you enough for coming here to the Arkansas Weather Blog.  Buckle up!  It will be an interesting ride!

These two images are from EuroWX.com

NOT A FORECAST!  The overnight run of the European would be a snow lovers paradise... if it verified.

The very next run of the model still shows wintry weather, but amounts have changed drastically as well as location.  Guess what?  The next model run will be different too!


FOR MORE INFO, READ BELOW!

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It's going to be another wild ride next week from mild temperatures to cold air once again.  It seems like the pattern is repeating itself from mid December!  Whenever you have such a transition, you must always be concerned about severe weather.  At this time, there are a couple factors which may limit that threat.  One of which is thunderstorm development along the Gulf Coast next Monday and that could keep instability away.  Again, this is early and it's something we must watch.

The purpose of this blog is not to show you a forecast, but to show you what goes into making that forecast.  It seems like whenever we mention winter weather, our words get twisted into something we never said.  In mid December, I still don't know what happened, but we never said there would be a winter storm, but that's all we heard and we don't know what started that.  We told you cold would be the big story and that's what happened.  I get as excited as most of you when snow is mentioned, but living in Arkansas, I know the realities, ESPECIALLY IN THE LONG RANGE!!!!!!!  Things change!!!!  With all that said, let's get to the meat of the post!!!!

Monday, a strong front will approach from the west with mild air ahead of it.  The surface low will shoot up to the northeast and this places the state in the warm sector.  I would not be surprised if highs made it into the 60s and 70s.  We must watch for at least some chance for strong thunderstorms, but that's not a guarantee at this point.
The European model has midday Monday temperatures well into the 60s, but there's potential for it to be warmer.  There's also potential for readings not to get out of hand if low clouds stick around.

In the past 2 videos I talked about the ridge in the upper levels building into Alaska.  That's very important.  That dislodges the cold air and sends it south into the lower 48.  I would expect it to arrive Tuesday the 3rd and Wednesday the 4th.
By Thursday, the cold air is getting firmly entrenched.  Look at these midday temperatures according to the Euro.
Map courtesy of EuroWX.com.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES!!!!  Remember, these models change ALL THE TIME!! With cold air in place the Euro is bringing a system out of the west with overrunning precip for much of the state Friday.  This would be an "Arkansas Slushie".

Courtesy of weatherbell.com.   The GFS not only has precip differences but timing differences as well.  The GFS is run 4X a day and comes up with 4 different solutions.  The overnight run has a light wintry mix over southern Arkansas Thursday.  DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY.  I PROMISE YOU THE NEXT RUN WILL BE DIFFERENT.



So what's my point in all this?  We feel very confident there will be a turn to colder weather by the middle of next week and it could be VERY cold.  Now we look for moisture!  Both the GFS and Euro show moisture overrunning into the cold air but differ on timing, strength, and location.  That's to be expected in the long range.  However, with both models showing this possibility, why not blog about it, right? LOL.  I would say "stay tuned", but who uses a tuner anymore on their TV? HA!

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