Saturday, January 21, 2017

Severe Weather Likely

A very powerful storm system will bring a chance for rain and storms late Saturday and again Sunday.  This will cross the state from southwest to northeast.  The initial round will have the highest potential to produce all modes of severe weather: wind, hail, and even tornadoes.  I fully expect a tornado watch to be issued.  I have concern a small surface low may form and increase the tornado potential from SW AR into central AR.  The winds could back at the surface into the low and this increases the wind shear and storm rotation may be enhanced.  This is something to watch!

The HRRR at 8PM shows a POSSIBLE low just east of Arkadelphia.  The wind flowing into this (backing) COULD increase the tornado threat.... COULD.

There could be some redevelopment after midnight and the main threat will be hail.

Another round of storms will be possible Sunday, but precipitation should not be very widespread and we're not expecting a washout.  However, a very cold pool of air aloft will move overhead.  This will increase the threat for at least small hail.

The following is simulated radar from the HRRR.  It's a great model, but no model is perfect.










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