Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Harvey, No One Wants You

Harvey will impact Arkansas, but not everyone will see rain.  As we have said since last weekend, Harvey will likely affect southern and eastern Arkansas and now it looks like the far eastern and southeastern portion of the state stands the highest chance for a few inches of rainfall.  The track continues to change a little, but the consensus is for it to track mostly away from the state.

The current track puts central Arkansas on the fringe of any rainfall.  There will be a VERY sharp rainfall gradient.  This only means there will be a sharp cut-off from the rain to dry conditions.  Once again, it will be the far eastern portions of the state with the greatest chance for a few inches of rain.

Timing - I expect rain chances to increase through today (especially this afternoon) into Thursday afternoon.  The system is speeding up and that's another piece of good news.  Tailgating at War Memorial probably won't be ideal.  That's a nice way of putting it!  However, if it speeds up anymore, that can change.   The back edge of any rainfall should be exiting around 7PM Thursday, but lingering sprinkles or drizzle may persist in spotty areas.

Next week, we have 2 things to watch.  First, more tropical development in the Gulf.  Yes, I know.  At this time, it does NOT look like a "Harvey", but any tropical feature must be watched.  The second element is a strong trough of low pressure digging into the central United States.  This might bring a sharp cool down and we'll continue to call it the "Pumpkin Spice Cold Front."  It arrives around mid week and hopefully IF there is anything in the Gulf, it will pick it up and throw it east.  If there is development, this trough should keep it from stalling.  

GFS rainfall amounts through Friday morning.  Heaviest up to 4'' along the Mississippi River.  Look at that rainfall gradient over central Arkansas. 

The RPM looks very, very similar.  Little west, central not much, and eastern and southern Arkansas picking up a few inches.

Euro rainfall amounts look like the other models.  

Timing - 7PM Thursday the back edge of the rain is leaving the metro.  However, there could be spotty sprinkles or drizzle during the game

The RPM is similar with the back edge around the metro at 7PM Thursday with spotty sprinkles and drizzle behind the main system (Harvey)

The Euro at 500mb. (about 20K feet).  Hot ridge located over the western United States with a strong trough central next Wednesday.  This would bring in a significant push of cooler air for us.

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