Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Got Rain?

We need rain badly and now there's an added concern, very low humidity!  The front will move through the state and take temperatures down and humidity values will tumble.  The front will also lack rainfall.  As a matter of fact, little if any is expected with the front.

I expect many more counties to go under a burn ban the and wildfire danger to increase for much of the state, especially west, central, and north.

I have some bad news as well.  It appears the cool down will only last a few short days.  However, when temperatures do warm up again next week, I don't think we'll have highs in the lower 90s and heat index temperatures near 100 degrees again.   I do think we'll go into the mid and MAYBE upper 80s, but the humidity should not be quite too high.  That's also bad news for the wildfire situation going into next week.

We have only had .45'' of rainfall so far this September.  If we don't have another drop between now and Saturday, and that's possible, we'll end up as the 9th driest on record.  Look at number 9 on the list!  2004 had a very dry September AND that was a year like this year with NO 100 degree temperatures.

Little if any rainfall is expected over the next 7 days.  If anything falls, it will likely be under a .25''.

The computer models continue to show the cool down, especially at night.  The humidity levels will also decrease.  However, look at the warm up the GFS and the Euro both indicate.

 It's worth raising this concern as the Euro shows an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico in about 8-10 days.  The pattern will favor more tropical development later next week.  These tropical systems have a way of clogging up the atmosphere and delays any cool air from reaching further south.  We'll see if this scenario pans out.  If you have any interests along the Gulf coast, I would not be too concerned at this point for 2 reasons.  1st, it's long range and we know that can always change.  2nd, at this time, it looks rather weak.  If any of this changes, I'll let you know.

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