Friday, October 06, 2017

Hot-Tober Interrupted By A Cool Down.

We're getting into that time of year when the weather begins to get active.  While Nate will make headlines across the country, I have doubts it will have much if any impact on Arkansas weather.  With the center of the storm moving east of the state, the heaviest rainfall will likely stay east of the Mississippi River.  However, it is possible for eastern Arkansas to get some rain on the western side of the system.  How much?  It's too soon to tell at this point.   If Nate does bring rain to eastern Arkansas, it will be the 4th tropical system to affect the state so far this year: Cindy, Harvey, Irma, and MAYBE Nate.

Here we are wrapping up the 1st week of October and the leaves are changing colors already, but it's only because of the dry conditions.  I guess we can call it drought induced fall foliage.  While we do have cooler temperatures in the forecast and a little rain, it's not looking good for brilliant fall colors this year.  I hope I'm wrong.  It also looks like peak (if we have one) will be delayed.

As I told you last weekend, we will get within a few degrees of daily record highs this weekend.   We won't break them.  Readings will be well above the seasonal average ahead of a potent front.  The front will come through with minimal rain amounts.  

Here's some more bad news.  The cooler air will not stick around long at all.  I expect a quick moderation of temperatures.

Nate should make landfall late Saturday into early Sunday, then rapidly track east of the state.  It will have little if any impact on Arkansas weather.  If that changes, I'll let you know.  These tropical systems can throw curveballs. 

Daily record highs are in the 90s, but I think we'll old in the mid and upper 80s.  Hot-Tober?

The GFS shows the warm temperatures, followed by a cool down starting Monday, but look at the warm up again by the end of next week.

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