Friday, October 13, 2017

Long Range Cold

I think warm weather fans are kinda getting tired of it too!  We'll probably fall just short of a daily record high in Little Rock Saturday.  That record is 93° set just a couple years ago in 2015.  At this time, I think we'll have a shot at 89 or 90°.  A strong cold front will move in Saturday night and Sunday with a few showers, but nothing heavy.   There's a chance some places don't see any rainfall at all.  Most of it will fall during the first half of the day as well.

Next week will be cooler, BUT there's a chance even cooler air arrives for the end of the month.  Many years ago, meteorologist Joe Bastardi with taught me the typhoon recurvature theory.  When you have a typhoon in the far western Pacific recurve to the north and then the northeast, it typically produces a trough in the central and eastern United States 6-10 days later.  Lo and behold, the models are forecasting that to occur.  So, if the theory holds true, the last week of the month should deliver a shot of cold air.  The models are now starting to indicate this.

The GEFS ensemble run last night does show the cooling in the long range.  In the 11-16 day time period (Oct 24th - Oct 29th), temperature anomalies in degrees C are around -1 to -3°.  Remember, this is over a 6 day period of time.  It does show the cooling and the chance for below average temperatures over the areas the trough should be situated at that time. The averages at this time are around 70° so it's POSSIBLE we could have highs in the 50s and 60s at some point towards the end of the month.  Under the right conditions, overnight lows could be cold enough to support our first frost and that would be typical according to climatology.  It will be interesting to watch NOAA and their 8-14 day outlook.  Those are manually drawn and NOT computer generated.  At this time, they indicate nothing but a high chance for above average temperatures.  Let's watch and see if it flips within the coming days. 

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