Monday, January 08, 2018

Guidance Again... Wintry Weather

At some point, it's going to get it right, right?  Over the past few days, the models have been back and forth with some sort of wintry weather late this week.  Of course, any specifics are pointless this far out, but it has my attention now.

Temperatures will warm up significantly by the middle of the week, then fall sharply.  As the front passes through, strong upper level energy will develop low pressure along the front.  According to the guidance, this will throw moisture back into the cold air for a brief period either Thursday night or Friday.  The favored area, according to the newest data is the northeastern half of the state.  While there's a possibility for some wintry weather, there's also a chance this develops further east and misses Arkansas.  Since this is Monday, it's too early to know.

The cold during the first 7 days was nothing short of spectacular and something we may not experience for a very long time again.  I posted the following on Twitter this morning....

  • By average low temperature, the 1st 7 days of January was the 3rd coldest in Little Rock weather history with 16.7°. By this measure, it was the coldest since 1887 (131 years).
  • By average high temperature, the 1st 7 days of January was the 14th coldest in Little Rock weather history, which dates back to the 1870s. By this measure, it was the coldest since 1988
  • By average temperature, the first full week of January 2018 (Jan 1-7) was the 5th coldest in recorded Little Rock weather history and the coldest since 1928 (90 years). The average temperature was 27.1° 

The 00Z run of the GFS valid midnight Friday into 6AM Friday has a wintry mix across the state on the back side of a strong area of low pressure.  It should be noted, the 6Z run shows this to a much lesser extent.  However, this model is erratic in the long range.  This image is courtesy of WeatherBell.com
Courtesy of EuroWX.com.  It has the precipitation changing over to a wintry mix Friday afternoon.  Amounts are not known at this time since it's long range.  Once again, there's also a chance this does not fully develop until it gets a little more east of the state.  

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