Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Heat Wave of 2007 Just Beginning

Sorry I have not posted in a few days. It's been kinda busy. Anyway, looking down the road, I think 100 degree plus temperatures look more likely for several days maybe more than a week because of a couple of things. First, with each passing day, soil moisture is decreasing. The suns energy goes into evaporation. If there's nothing to evaporate, we heat up much more efficiently. Next, temperatures at what we call 850 millibars are warming. This level is about 5,000 feet. Warmer temps. there usually translates into warmer temps. here at the surface. Also, the high pressure aloft is strong enough to keep us sizzling.

As far as the length of this pattern. I look as far as two weeks away and see NO significant change to the pattern. The computer models are very consistant with that. This takes us to Aug. 21. I think it's safe to say the heat wave of 2007 will take us to the very end of the month.

LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL??? The sun is getting lower and lower on the horizon. The angle is lowering especially at the higher latitudes. This allows cooler, even colder air to begin to build way up in the NW territories of Canada into the arctic circle. I have noticed over the past few days the temperatures dropping there. This is an indication of nice fall air masses beginning to develop. But the pattern must change to get pieces of that cooler air south. That's typically sometime in Sept.

In perspective, having temperatures in the upper 90s to 103 degrees in August is very normal for Arkansas. It's comforting to know it waited this long to occur. It will be gone as fast as it began. Be patient.

No comments:

NOAA Winter Guidance