Friday, February 03, 2012

European Model Says Winter Isn't Over Yet!

Alright cold weather fans, this is just one model run and I'm not jumping on the cold bandwagon yet.  However, this sure is fun to look at!  As we head deeper into February we all may be singing a little American Pie by Don McLean.  "February made me shiver, with every paper I delivered..."

Enough with that!  Check out the video and



Will said...

What's this? Both the EURO and GFS hinting at something in the 7 - 10 day outlook. Can it be or is this just another tease.......Let's see what the next run of the models say as they have both been doing a lot of flipping and flopping..........;)

It's about time for SnowBirdBobby to start singing his song......

Anonymous said...

I have noticed a pattern with Snowbirdbob. He predicts an arctic jailbreak on a wide time frame. As time goes on, he pushes the date back more and more. Haha sorry Snowbirdbob but you have been doing this the whole winter.

03msc said...

lol I love the dramatic, "Let's go to the models..." lol

Anonymous said...

I am ready for some snow lets get it!!!!lol if it happens.

Amy said...

Ok, Snowbird!! You keep on keeping my snow hopes alive, but I'm running out of steam!! Here's to the Euro and the GFS showing cold and wintry in our future until it gets here!! No flip flops!!! Snow lovers unite!! One for snow and snow for all!!

Michael Hook said...'re losing credibility with each forecast you produce.

A bizzard? Really? Here is some February snow history: only 3 times since 1879 has Little Rock received 7"or more of snow in a single February day and only 7 times has LR received more than 7" in the month of February.

Blizzards are highly unusual in AR and only two Blizzard Warnings have been issued by the NWS out of Tulsa. Not sure about LIT, but NW AR had blizzard to near blizzard conditions Nov 30 2006 and Dec 24 2009.

So unless a dramatic pattern change occurs in the next three weeks your blizzard forecast will wilt like the rest of your winter forecast. No jailbreak arctic air seen. No coldest in 20-30 years.

You did get the November snow..which by the way was in autumn not winter. I guess we'll give you the surprise Dec snow.

So that leaves us with your two bold precitions of 6-12" of snow for LR. A blizzard for AR with LR receiving 7"-9" inches sometime between now and the end of winter which meteologicaly would be February 29th (you get an extra leap year day)or we'll just go with the calendar and say March 20th.

The bet is in place for the singing of Anne Murray's Snowbird if you win and if I win you'll be doing some Nelly. Now want to up the ante to FIFTY BUCKS? I'm calling you out on this one and remember it is in fun.

I hope your right and we get dumped on, but the bitterly cold Alaskan air has retreated to the North Slope and worked it's way not south but across the pole to eastern Europe and Asia. That cold air is not coming south. Temps that were in the -40s/-50s/-60s has modified to the -10s to near 0 and actually across the southern coast of Alaska is pushing 36-40 degrees above zero.

I'll give you don't give up.. And for everyone reading..we really are friends just having some competition.

The models keep teasing us and continue to do so..maybe they'll get aligned and it will happen.

I'd love nothing more to have to sing and eat some crow along the way. I love snow..and wish it would all work out.

Take care my friend.. Michael Hook aka The WeatherNinja

Anonymous said...

I would normally scoff, bu last year I DID see near blizzard conditions and recorded 22 inches of snow outside my NW Arkansas home. Two days later we recorded te coldest temperature on record, -18 degrees. This was the end of January and first of February. I doubt that happens this year, but I've learned never to say never when it ones to Arkansas weather. A big snow this month wouldn't surprise me if the pattern changes, and it looks like it will change soon. We'll just have to wait and see.

The Weather Fanatic said...

I love the enthusiasm Bob, but you are out of.bullets. It's not gonna happen. You'll have to chase in Kansas or Missouri to see something. Maybe NW AR sees a little but we are done with accumulating snow in LR. I like many love snow, but this is a strong LA Nina without a -nao. I still want to see you throw in the towel but you are chicken..It's ok to be wrong! Just look at the snowfall contest. It could completely bust. Don't be afraid to throw in the towel! Mother Nature proves us wrong all the time! For the record, my guess was 10.9 and that doesn't look promising unless Harrison gets 6 inches. As Ninja said, the cold went east and It won't come south. Hope you get a chase in before the season is over!

Anonymous said...

WOW haha! Everyone has been fooled including Todd and weatherninja by this snowbirdbob imposter! I thought something seemed off here. His predictions are a bit irrational but not THAT irrational.

SnowbirdBob said...

To..Weather Ninja..I enjoyed your post..LOL..But,I didn't post that stuff above..I have always posted SnowbirdBob..Anyway, As far as credibility, You can't gain any..LOL..You never go out past the NAM..After Feb.28th When you look back..All you will be able to say.Is WOW!! Never count out the Snowbird..So, Sit back buckle up & hang on for one of the wildest Winter's Blowout you have seen in Years!! & Its all in fun..I will take the $50 Dollar wager on Central Ark seeing a 6-12 Inch Snow before March 20th..But, Not on a Blizzard..I never said ya friend ;)

SnowbirdBob AKA
Bob Read
N Louisiana

Will said...

I'm pulling for the bird!! He puts it out there and doesn't waffle back and forth like some do. The snow trains a'coming and Bob's the engineer. Long time lurker, relatively new poster but I'll take half that 50 dollar bet if SNB wants the backup!!

Will said...

BTW......not an imposter. If that was the case I would not have signed as Will. The name is William, not Hugh and not anonymous. Big fan of SNB, the Ninja, the fanatic and all the rest that post their information and analysis.

Michael Hook said...

Well Snowbird...we have a bet.

To anonymous, you are correct in that very heavy snow fell in NW AR last year. That was one awesome display of Mother Nature. And I was trying to see if a Blizzard Warning was indeed issued for extreme NW AR (Benton County) but couldn't find it.

For those who might not know, a blizzard is classified as considerable falling or blowing snow, sustained winds of 35mph or greater for a minimum of 3 hours creating visibilities of 1/4 or less in blowing or drifting snow. The amount of snow doesn't matter.

On the other hand a snowstorm is typical of heavy snow falling and you can have gusty winds.

I was in NE AR in 2009 when they had the heavy snow and winds were blowing to 25mph so it feld blizzard like to me.

I wish I could have made it up to that NW AR storm. Best I could do was on top of Mt. Magazine and the 10 inches they received.

Good luck SBB.

Lori said...

Well, I am glad it has not snowed any great amount. I happen to work at a hospital and I have to be there no matter what the weather even though I work in medical records. I don't cherish the thought of having to stay over night either. We don't exactly have beds to sleep in.

Anonymous said...

Todd, love the blog, check it about ten times a day... but I have to say seeing victory vintage tweets is getting really annoying. I can understand if he is a sponsor( and he may very well be) but if he is not, why does he keep doing it? If you started a new poll on whether you like to see these tweets or not, the results will be more spread out than the chili poll.

Omarr Wilson said...

MAN I Honestly Love SNOWBIRD'S Spirit.! He's Not Going Down Without a Fight... And You Never Know He Might Not go Down At all.!! I STUDY The Models On Every Run Almost.! In My Opinion I havent Decided On Snow or No Snow. So I'm Kinda Neutral on it.! BUT I'm Still Holding out Hope for This Winter... And With Bipolar ARWX You Never Know These days. But The Winter Weather Contest. Complete Bust.! This Stuff Is Very Fun. I love seeing Theses Competitions Pan Out.! Thats What Makes Us Some of The Best People at What We Do. Plus Its VERY INTERESTING.!

Omarr Wilson

Anonymous said...

Look for a lackluster severe weather season. La Nina has already peaked. Look for a trsnquil spring and normal summer. Little rock wont hit 100 this summer. Look for a bitterly cold winter 2012-2013. Little rock hits 0 degrees in january 2013. If u think im full of it just watch how this all plays out.