As you know by watching the news Sunday, I threw in a chance for a few showers and storms late Monday mainly for southern Arkansas. A disturbance coming up from the south could spark a few and the new version of the NAM is really hitting on this. There's a slight risk for some severe weather with the main threat hail and wind. I do NOT expect any sort of outbreak. As far as the tornado threat is concerned, it's very, very low. You know my "golden rule" of Arkansas weather though, "never say never when it comes to Arkansas weather." But like I said, that threat is very much on the low end.
Most of the storms will weaken as the evening progresses. Here's the NAM simulated radar below...
|The NAM valid by 6 PM this afternoon shows a few showers and storms across far southern Arkansas|
|By 8 PM, the area is advancing northward, but not into the metro yet. The NAM thinks the heaviest action will be across southwest into west central areas.|
|By midnight, the area is still across the south, but weakening. These may make as far north as central AR, but the severe threat will diminish overnight.|
|The SPC indicates a slight risk for southern Arkansas late today|