Tracking Sandy

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There's not much going on around Arkansas so I thought I would put up a map of our interactive radar and let you track Sandy with it here.  This historic storm will disrupt air travel all over the country so if you're traveling be prepared for that.

There are several storm chasers streaming live video all up and down the east coast.  You can click on their cars and watch it.

Also, it will be interesting to watch the mountains in West Virginia.  Where the cold air and tropical moisture intersect, VERY heavy snow will fall.  Blizzard warnings are in effect there.  Being a snow lover, I wish I was there!

Sandy and Arkansas

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Sandy will not be as nice as the character in Grease.  Am I showing my age? You know I keep this weather blog all about Arkansas weather, but I'm going to take a detour to that approach for this post.  Although, I will be showing you how Sandy will impact our weather so that detour will be a very minor one.

This tropical system will phase with a cold system diving out of Canada to form a massive low pressure area which will affect MILLIONS of people along the east coast.  High winds, heavy rain, heavy surf, and even HEAVY mountain SNOW will all be possible from whatever is left of Sandy next week.  As I have mentioned in previous facebook posts and here on the blog, Sandy will impact travel across the country due to the ripple effect through our nation's airports.  So if you're a traveler next week, especially across the eastern United States, it could turn out to be a nightmare.

There's talk about this being a once in a hundred year storm.  Hype?  Maybe and maybe not.  We just don't know yet.  Plus, some people's perspective only dates back to when they began remembering things as a kid.  You know the movie, "Perfect Storm."  This was a similar situation, but if I remember correctly, it was worse away from the coast.  We have seen very disruptive storms before such as the Blizzard of 1993.  That produced severe weather in Florida and a massive snow storm from Alabama to the northeastern United States.  The way that storm was produced is different, but it was devastating for millions of people.  So I'll leave it up to you to decide if this turns out to be a 100 year storm.  Regardless, as a meteorologist, it will be fascinating to watch.

Sandy will impact our weather here in Arkansas... to a degree.  Pun intended.  Our average high temperatures for the end of October into the beginning of November are in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.  The flow of air around the storm, will keep readings a few degrees below average and with a northwesterly flow in place... mostly dry.

Check out the model maps below from the European model

This is valid 7PM Sunday.  Look at Sandy just off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia.  The solid black lines are isobars (lines of equal barometric pressure).  The gradient is very steep around the storm indicating very high winds circulating counterclockwise into the storm.  The area of high pressure located in southern Canada is producing a northerly wind flow across Arkansas at the surface.  The colored contours are temperatures at 850 mb (roughly 5000 feet).  This shows very cool air at that level diving south and getting ready to get caught up in Sandy's circulation.  This will eventually make Sandy more of a hybrid system and produce snows on the western side of the system in the mountains along the eastern United States.

24 hours later, Sandy is ashore causing big problems according to the Euro.  Notice the cold air at 5000' is getting wrapped up into the system.  We still have a northerly flow here.  It's dry and cool in the central United States including Arkansas.

By 7 PM Tuesday, it's still going and we're continuing to see dry and cool weather as a result of Sandy.  While still a strong storm, it has weakened a little here.

I wanted to show you the 500 mb pattern.  This upper level chart shows winds coming out of the north/northwest across Arkansas.  This is a flow which continues to bring cool and dry air as we remain on the west side of the upper level system which caught Sandy.  At times, small disturbances can come through and bring clouds, but precipitation is difficult to produce due to the dry air in place.

Octo-BRRRR... The Sequel

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Many times the original is better than the sequel, but that's not the case this time.  The cold air mass arriving tonight will be the coldest so far this season.  It will also come with some rain and rumbles of thunder, but right now, it appears it will be out of here for all the Friday night football games.  I'm sure the hot chocolate sales will be through the roof as cold and windy conditions grip the state.

If you watched my Facebook video extra Wednesday, you know that Hurricane "Sandy" will have an indirect impact on Arkansas and a direct impact on some Arkansans.  There's a very good chance Sandy will phase with a strong trough of low pressure across New England and create a MONSTER storm over New England next week.  In the storms wake, a northwesterly wind flow aloft will keep up cool and dry.  Temperatures will only be in the 50s and 60s for highs with lows in the 30s and 40s.

Sandy, or what's left of her, will impact any Arkansans traveling as there will major air travel delays up and down the east coast.  Whenever there are major and widespread delays, it will create a ripple effect across the country.

I have detailed maps below showing the timing of the front according to the hi-res North American Model. It will take you through Friday night football and the Razorback game Saturday. You may have to click to enlarge each picture to read the temperatures

Can you guess where the cold front is located?  This is at 1 PM Thursday and the front is just touching the northwest corner of the state.  Ahead of it, readings will soar into the 70s and 80s, but the cold air is just up the road.

By 7 PM Thursday, the front is entering central Arkansas.  There is a huge spread in temperatures from the 40s across the north to the 80s ahead of it in southwest Arkansas.

By 1AM Friday, the front is through most of the state with only southeast Arkansas still seeing the warmer temperatures, but that won't last long.

At 7 AM Friday morning, the big BRRRR is here.  Look at all the 30s across northwest Arkansas and 40s elsewhere.

By 7 PM Friday, all the football games around the state will be getting underway and you're going to need your coat!  Temperatures are in the 40s across northwest Arkansas with 50s elsewhere.  Readings will fall into the 40s for most of the state during those games.... BUNDLE UP.  It's going to be breezy as well.

By 7 AM Saturday, tailgaters at War Memorial are going to get a cold start with widespread 30s and 40s!

By 1PM Saturday, we're only in the upper 50s across all of central Arkansas.  It's going to be cool at the game!

Cold Air Coming

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Our mild days are numbered as a cold front brings us back to reality. 

The Super Front of 1911 (11-11-11)

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I always hear talk about how extreme the weather is nowadays.  I completely agree, but I also know it has ALWAYS been extreme.  From what I'm about to show you, the "super front of 1911", to the dust bowl, to recent major hurricanes, to record heat, the weather is always changing from one extreme to the other.  

I was talking with meteorologist Brian Smith at the National Weather Service in North Little Rock a couple of weeks ago and he brought something fascinating to my attention, the "super front of 1911".  On November 11th, 1911 (yes... 11-11-11), one of the most extreme temperature swings occurred right here in Arkansas.

Brian wrote the following information last year on the 100th anniversary.  Scroll down for actual weather maps of this event.  Thanks Brian for sending me this!

You will need to click on each section of the report to read.

 

This is the actual weather map from 11-11-11.  You can see the strong south and southwesterly winds ahead of the front.  The boundary is northwest of Arkansas with a could of areas of low pressure along it.

Here is the weather summary from that day.

Severe Weather Likely Today

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While I don't expect an "outbreak" I do think we'll see several severe thunderstorms warnings later this afternoon and evening.  The main threat will be wind and some hail.  There will also be the threat for tornadoes, but I still don't think it's all that high, but you should stay weather aware today.  

I think there's a very high chance the Storm Prediction Center will issue a tornado watch this afternoon for portions of central and eastern Arkansas.  I don't want to completely downplay the tornado aspect of this, but high winds and hail will be much more common within the severe thunderstorms.

As I said in the previous post, this will be a fast moving front and the window for severe weather will be quite narrow.  These storms will develop and merge into a squall line and sweep east of the Mississippi River in just the matter of a few short hours. 

The hires NAM shows storms initiating in central Arkansas between 5-6PM.  I wanted to show you another hi res model below for comparison and some graphics from the Storm Prediction Center.  Remember, these models are NOT perfect, but I like to show them to give you a general idea as to what will happen.

By 7PM, this model shows individual cells developing from south central into northern Arkansas.

The HiRes NAM has more of  solid line by 7PM in almost the exact same location.

By 8 PM, this hires model still has individual cells pushing into eastern Arkansas.  If there's enough low level shear, the tornado threat will be a concern IF this were to verify.

By 9PM, the cells are merging and moving into far eastern and southeastern Arkansas

By 10PM, the storms are exiting the state

The SPC has almost all of AR in a slight risk for severe weather this Wed. afternoon and evening.

SPC indicates a 10% chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point in the yellow area in eastern AR.

SPC shows an area where there's a 30% chance of severe thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of any given point in the red shaded area.

SPC shows a 15% of severe hail within 25 miles of any given point in the yellow shaded area.

Wild Weather Wednesday

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In the previous blog post, I wrote about the secondary severe weather season we are now in and it appears more and more likely a round of strong to even severe thunderstorms will sweep across the state Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

What makes this potentially wild as well will be the temperatures and winds both ahead and behind the frontal boundary.  I expect strong southerly winds Wednesday and this will draw in Gulf of Mexico moisture.  At times, wind speeds could easily exceed 20 mph and maybe go up to 30 mph.  Temperatures will likely reach the low to mid 80s and as a result of the increased levels of heat and humidity, instability levels will reach more than 2000 j/kg.  This is called CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy.) 2000 is considered very strong.

The front will quickly move through the state and as the evening progresses, those instability levels will come down.  There will only be a narrow window of a few hours when severe weather will be likely.  Winds will become west-northwest behind the front at speeds greater than 20 mph with falling temperatures and falling moisture levels.  It will be a wild day for sure.  Models show highs Thursday in the low to mid 70s, but watch out, that could be too warm.

As far as the tornado threat, you know my saying, "never say never to Arkansas weather."  The threat is LOW however, it can't be completely ruled out.  If any cell can develop by itself and away from the squall line, it could happen, but it's a low threat.  IF there is any tornado threat, it will be early in the event, then this should organize into a line and sweep off to the east.  The main threat for Arkansans will be hail and wind. 

Check out the maps below.

This is the NAM hi res simulated radar at 4PM Wednesday.  It's warm and humid across the SE 1/2 of the state with showers and storms developing near the front to the northwest.

Hires simulated radar data shows the line quickly forming from NE to SW across the state by 7PM.  The main threat will be wind and hail.

By 10 PM, it's east of Arkansas.  Notice how short of a window the severe potential is at your location!

The NAM shows a large build up of instability across western AR by 4PM.  There's an area of up to 2500 j/kg forecast in the middle of that yellow blob.

As the front moves through and daytime heating decreases.  The instability levels gradually decrease over time and it shifts to the east.  This is at 10 PM.

The SPC has much of AR under a slight risk for severe weather Wednesday.

Secondary Severe Weather Season Is Here

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It still surprises some people when we get severe weather in the fall and winter, but it's very common for this to happen.  We call this time of year our "secondary severe weather season".  However, there have been years when there are more tornadoes in the fall than in the spring.

This fall concerns me due to the evolving El Nino pattern and the tendency for more frequent storm systems to race through this area of the country.  So far this year, officially, there have been 14 tornadoes in Arkansas.  This is well below the average of 33.  In Arkansas, it can only take a few hours to change this statistic and for it to go above average. 

I'll never forget the late November outbreak in 2005 when a tornado outbreak affected much of western and central Arkansas.  Barry Brandt and I were on the air for hours and hours tracking those storms.

In November of 1983, Arkansas was playing SMU (if my memory serves me correctly) at War Memorial.  We had a tornado warning in effect for Pulaski county during the game.  I'll never forget the phone call from my dad after the twister struck his business.  He said,  "we're ruined".  1 month later, we had a major outbreak of cold air and ice on the ground for days around Christmas.  My point, we can get some very wild weather this time of year and we all need to be weather aware.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE FALL SEVERE WEATHER SEASON FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NORTH LITTLE ROCK, CLICK HERE.

Graphic from the National Weather Service office in Little Rock showing the November 27th tornado outbreak of 2005.

2010 Tornado statistics from the Storm Prediction Center.  Notice the spike in late October into November in the amount of severe weather.

Here's another example of an increase in the fall of 2005.  There's a noticeable spike in November.

This is data from the SPC.  Notice this year the number of tornadoes across the United States so far is well under what happened in 2011 and is below the annual average.

Cut Off Low... Look Out Below

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I apologize for not blogging lately.  I have taken a few days of vacation to fish and attend my 20 year high school reunion.  In case you didn't know, I'm a 1992 graduate of Little Rock Catholic High.  It was wonderful seeing my old(er) classmates, hear what they are doing, and share memories.  

Our guidance counselor and religion teacher, Brother Richard, is still at the school and took some of us on a tour Saturday afternoon after a reunion mass.   The picture above includes him and a few of my classmates taken below our 1992 class picture on the wall at CHS.  It would be impossible to describe how wonderful a person Brother Richard is to the students of CHS past and present.  This is a man who has dedicated his life to Christ and the students who pass through those hallways.  If any of you have a boy who has gone through CHS, you know what I'm talking about.  If you have a son soon to attend, Brother Richard is one of the greatest assets to Catholic High. 

Now onto the weather.  The models ALL agree on a good dose of cool, fall air.  It should start to arrive by the middle of the week.  After that, there are some disagreements that could have major impacts on the long range forecast.  It seems like we get rain every Friday night and there's one model pointing in that direction while others do not.  

An area of low pressure aloft will cut off from the main jet stream.  These are ALWAYS difficult to predict the placement and movement especially this far out in the forecast.  When you see the models below, you will understand what I'm talking about.

The closer that low cuts off to Arkansas, the higher the chance for "wrap around moisture".  The proximity of it will tend to increase the chance for occasional cloud cover, light rain chances, and some wind.  This is not only important in forecasting for next Friday night, but it will also help to dictate where our temperatures will go.  More clouds and wind will keep overnight lows from really dropping off.  This is important when forecasting the first possible frost or freeze and the end of the growing season.  If skies can clear out and winds lighten up behind the front, a greater chance will exist for readings to drop to levels that could produce frosty conditions and maybe a freeze.  Stay tuned.  

Here are the maps.

This is the European model valid late Wednesday showing the front slicing through the state with some rain and thunderstorms.

The European model cuts off the area of low pressure aloft just north of AR late Friday.  If it cuts off this close to the state, the winds will stay up, occasional clouds will pass by, and even a few showers.  This indicates NOTHING heavy in terms of precipitation, but many times, little spokes of energy can rotate around the parent low and spark off some light showers.  If this model verifies, that will have to be watched.

The GFS takes the low further to the north into the Great Lakes by late Friday.  This would bring clear and cold conditions to the state Friday night.

The CMC keeps the low to the northeast with dry and chilly weather Friday night

3 Seasons in 24 Hours. More Wild Weather To Come?

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Thanks to FLW Outdoors for this hail video shot in Russellville Saturday, Oct. 6th.

The 2nd piece of video comes from KATV viewer Lori Dobbins of a hail storm in north central Arkansas Saturday.

More about the upcoming weather pattern below the video.





I think we went through 3 seasons within just 24 hours.  Spring (warmth and thunderstorms), fall (cooler air), and winter (sleet in northern Arkansas)

I want to jump ahead to next weekend.  There is a piece of energy sitting off the west coast of the United States and it's closed off from the main flow.  In terms of big weather makers, this has POTENTIAL to be our next one.  It's too early to say for sure due to MANY uncertainties.  How does this come out into the plains, what kind of airmass will be in place ahead of it, timing of the associated front, etc?

I do want everyone to pay attention due to 1 of the possibilities... thunderstorms and severe weather.   Again, it's wayyyyyyyy to early to say this will happen, but let's watch it.  We are entering our secondary severe weather season and this scenario needs to be addressed.  Check out the maps below....

Here's the upper level map next Thursday.  See the big upper level low in southern California.  This is what I'll be watching!  This is forecast to pull into the plains and drag a front through the state.  Again, this could come through with just some rain and a few storms or something a bit stronger.  Entering our secondary severe weather season, let's keep an eye on it!

This is the GFS next Sunday afternoon showing CAPE... Convective Available Potential Energy ( instability).  You can see how that's lining up along and ahead of the front.  The center of low pressure at the surface and aloft will go north of the state.  Again, too early for any specifics.

Video Blog Discussion.... "Octo-BRRR" Front Timing

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The video below discusses the exact timing of the frontal boundary and what to expect hour by hour Friday into Saturday.

Don't get use to this warm weather as temperatures will plunge at least by 25-30 degrees.  Enjoy the video.

Video Blog Discussion.... Octo-BRRRR Update

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It's going to be a roller coaster over the next few days as strong warming ahead of a front will take temperatures well into the 80s, then temperatures tumble with rain chances this weekend.

The video below is a very detailed look at 2 of the major long range computer models... the Euro and the GFS.

"Octo-brrrrr" Coming To A Town Near You Soon!

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Have you noticed how there has been a major flip in our weather since the middle of August?  The entire year up to that point was well above average in terms of temperature with well below average precipitation.  It seems like these patterns can snap like a rubber band and I would NOT be surprised to see a rainfall surplus by the end of the year.  We have gone from rainfall deficits of more than 8 inches in Little Rock to deficits around 1-2 inches.  It will not take much to put us in the "plus" category now.  That's just incredible considering the historic drought and hot weather we all experienced this summer!

The effects of the developing El Nino pattern usually brings wetter and cooler weather against the averages and this should take us right through winter.

This week will feature a warm up, but it will not last long and it should not be too strong.  The upper level wind flow pattern is undergoing a strong amplification.  A large ridge of high pressure will develop over the eastern Pacific into western Canada with a strong corresponding trough across the central and eastern United States.  This will dislodge cool, Canadian air and send it south.  We can expect well below average temperatures by the end of the week into the following week.  As far as precipitation is concerned, there should not be much with the actual front.  However, at times, the models do show periods of wet weather developing after the front passes as disturbances flow through the region.

If you watched the blog video in the previous post, you know there are model differences concerning the timing of the cool air.  There is a little better agreement and I expect the front to sweep through the state Thursday night or into Friday.  The Global Forecasting System forecast numbers indicate highs only in the lower 60s Sunday in Little Rock.  This would be almost 15-20 degrees below average!  IF there were clouds and showers around, this may be too warm, but it's too early to speculate about that.

Let's look at the model information below...

The GFS shows warming ahead of the front Thursday with highs going into the 80s especially across the southern half of the state.  Look at the colder air poised to move in from the north.  There will be widespread 40s and 50s just north and west of Arkansas.  Do you see the closed white line near Yellowstone Park?  That's an area of freezing temperatures.  Keep an eye on that white line in the maps below.

By late Friday, the colder air is establishing itself across Arkansas with readings only in the 50s and 60s.  The freezing temperatures are still wayyy to the north.  Look at the warm air.  It has moved to the southeastern United States.

This is the GFS next Sunday morning.  The 35 degree line is situated across far northern Arkansas with the freezing line in southern Missouri.  This indicates lows around 40 degrees in central Arkansas.  Do I buy this?  It's too early to tell!  There are some indications we could have some cloud cover and wind which would keep temperatures from reaching these chilly levels.  Nevertheless, it will be MUCH colder regardless.  STAY TUNED!!!!!