Omaha, Omaha. Snow North, Sleet South. Hut, Hut

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As discussed in previous posts, there will be 3 chances for wintry weather next week.  This post will focus on the Sunday system, but first I'll talk a little about the midweek and the late week storms.

On Tuesday, I still think the brunt of the worst winter weather will be across northern Arkansas.  This is a set-up for ice.  I think it could start as something frozen across the northern half of the state (including central Arkansas), then go to a very cold rain.  Again, further north, icing will be a concern most of Tuesday.

A third system will arrive next Friday.  This will bring another "mixed bag" of precipitation.  As I always say, specifics this far out is useless, but it does appear another round is very possible.

Ok, now onto the Super Bowl Sunday Sleet and Snow.  Going to a party?  I would really pay attention to the forecast.  Roads could be impacted as a mixture of sleet and snow will be possible.  Also, I will likely issue a SCHOOL:CON index for Monday as some schools could close.  I'll post that on twitter and facebook.

The models keep trending further south with the moisture Sunday afternoon.  With that said, I think the best chance for accumulating snow will be from west central into north central Arkansas with sleet along the southern edge of this.  That means central Arkansas.

Once again, I'll have more about the Tuesday and Friday system later.  There's soooo much on my weather plate so we'll handle each storm one at a time.

I will use maps from weatherbell.com here.  It's the 00Z run of the Global Forecasting System (GFS).  Remember, it's showing you precip over the past 6 hours.  The red line is the 32 degree line.  Green is rain, orange is sleet, pink is freezing rain, and blue is snow.   This is just a model and details will need to be adjusted as we get closer to the event.

By noon Sunday, the precipitation is breaking out.  However, the freezing line is further north with temperatures around central Arkansas barely above freezing.  This shows you the amount of precip from 6AM to Noon Sunday.  Rain south, sleet and snow central and north.  See the "H" near Kansas City?  That's a surface high from Canada and our cold air pump.  The isobars (black lines) are oriented in a way which brings in an easterly flow at the surface.  This is favorable for wintry weather.

By 6PM, the surface low is shaping up well south of the state and we're firmly entrenched in the cold air sector.  It looks like sleet for much of central AR and snow further north.

Between 6PM and midnight, freezing rain, sleet, and snow is affecting much of the state with the back edge coming into western Arkansas.

In summary, it's going to be another "Arkansas Slushie" with all different types of precipitation.  Stay tuned.

Winter Kicks Into High Gear

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Over the past month, we have been completely dominated by the northern branch of the jet stream.  It has delivered numerous shots of cold air well down into the Gulf and this has cut off our main moisture supply.   On a side note, the continuous arctic air intrusions have cooled Gulf of Mexico surface temperatures and they are well below average.  As I have mentioned in previous posts, this may help squash any significant severe weather until later in the spring when those sea surface temperatures can recover.  I want to make it clear what I'm saying here.  We can still have severe weather, but significant outbreaks could be delayed this severe weather season much like last year.  Outside of the Botkinburg tornado in April, the only "outbreak" was late May.  On yet another side note, there is no official definition of "outbreak", but I think May 30th of last year did meet my criteria as more than a dozen tornadoes hit the Natural State.

Now the southern branch of the jet will get active starting next week with numerous precipitation chances.  At the same time, the northern branch will still be in a favorable position to deliver punches of cold air.  Ridging over Alaska will continue.  Many times you will hear it's warmer in Alaska than in the lower 48.  This is very normal in this type of pattern.  That's how the United States gets cold.  Rarely is it cold in both places at the same time. When Alaska is in the deep freeze, it usually stays bottled up there and we are flooded with milder Pacific air.  Anyway, the ridging up there continues and the transport (pump) for cold air will continue into the lower 48.

Now we have 3 systems to watch next week.  Mild air comes in through Saturday, then we get back into the cold air.  Waves of moisture will trek across the western and southern United States bringing numerous opportunities for precipitation.  This is wonderful news for the wildfire situation, but can be bad news for travel as winter weather chances will be on the increase. The cold air from the north and the moisture will first combine on Sunday.  This is a minor disturbance compared to the following one, but it can deliver some wintry weather, especially to northern Arkansas.  This will be the target area all week.  While winter weather will be possible further south, it's the north that will be more susceptible as the best cold air and moisture come together in that location.

The next and more significant disturbance arrives Tuesday into Wednesday.  The exact track of the low and the strength is crucial for precipitation types, but all will be likely across Arkansas during this 48 hour time period.  The further south the low tracks, the more likely frozen precipitation will be seen into central Arkansas, but the further north, just a cold rain.  This is still several days away so it's wayyyyyy too early to get specific.

The next system arrives Friday of next week.  The models show a very cold solution and snow, but I'm extremely hesitant to go with that at this time.   It's possible, but once again, I think the north will be the favored area.  

I have maps below explaining EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW.

Cold air will continue to come in waves from the north with a moisture supply coming along the southern branch of the jet.  The combination of these two means precipitation chances will be on the increase, relief from the wildfire danger, and maybe some winter weather.

This is the overnight run of the Euro.  In these maps, it's important to know what the blue dashed line is called.  It's the "540 line".  Basically this is the rain/snow line.  Just south of this, there can be an area of ice where surface temperatures are cold enough.  The black closed line over Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois is a surface high from the northern jet delivering cold air.  The green and yellow blobs are precipitation amounts over the previous 6 hours.  There is a wave of energy producing this coming from the southern jet.  This is showing the chance for some frozen precipitation across northern AR Sunday afternoon and evening with a cold rain further south.  This is round #1

Here's the Euro valid next Tuesday as noon. Taking this literally (this WILL change) it's a cold rain for much of central and southern Arkansas.  The tiny black circle over SE AR is the surface low.  The further south this travels, the higher the chances for winter weather.  Further north, just rain.  This is indicating heavy amounts of precipitation which is good news for the wildfire situation. Traveling to the north?  This version of the Euro indicates MAJOR snow for north TX, OK, KS into Missouri.  The 540 line is north of AR, BUT remember, just south of that there will be icing concerns if temps support that at the surface.

And here are the surface temperatures Tuesday at noon.  The solid white line is the freezing line.  That's located from near Ft. Smith over to near Clinton up to NE AR.  This is an icing situation for that portion of the state while central and south have a cold rain.  As the low moves away Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, that freezing line will move south and there's at least some chance the rain will change to snow before ending for central and northern AR.  Maybe even further south.  AGAIN, THIS IS MANY DAYS AWAY AND SPECIFICS CAN AND WILL CHANGE.

Here's the next system arriving Friday Feb. 7th.  The low is in the Gulf allowing colder air into the state.  The 540 line is much further south implying this is snow across the north half and ice/rain across the south half.   I have serious doubts about this verifying.  The Euro in this time frame has been less than stellar. 

In summary, as always, when you're talking about a winter forecast this far out, things are going to change.  The track and strength of the low will be crucial.  The purpose of this post is to show you the possibilities.   This is ONLY 1 run of the operational Euro, the next run could show something completely different.  However, at this time, given the pattern, I feel confident there will be wintry weather in the state.  As I mentioned on twitter this morning, the brunt will be across the north.  It's still POSSIBLE further south.  I'll keep you updated. 

Wintry Weather Possible Next Week

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3:20 PM Wednesday Update... well, the audio on that video was messed up for some reason and I hope I have it fixed here with this new one.  This is the latest model data I have this afternoon (Wednesday)

As always, whenever you can use alliteration, do it.  LOL!  Anyway, all the models point towards a significant storm system starting next Tuesday for much of the central and eastern United States.  As can be expected, all of the data shows differences in the specifics.  If the storm goes further north, then we're talking about rain.  If it goes south, then we're looking at more wintry weather.  This video goes over it all for you.  Enjoy.

Pattern Finally Shows Signs of Delivering Moisture

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1:15 PM Monday update...  I don't want to hang my hat on a particular model run or two when it comes to a forecast that's more than a week away.  However, everything is pointing towards plain rain and even thunder starting a week from Tuesday.  We'll take that given the fire danger across the Natural State.  If enough cold air can get in front of this system and the track of the storm goes south, that could change.

I wanted to use this update to show you something very interesting when we look out even further in the long range.  I find it remarkable how cold it can get here in Arkansas without any snow cover over the state or just north of the state.  Many times arctic air will modify less as it descends south over snow fields.  The only snow fields are located well northeast of the state and I'll show you that below.  With the system next week, I'm very confident it will be a MAJOR and very SIGNIFICANT storm system and it will lay down a ton of snow.  At this time, it looks like the favored area would be from the Texas panhandle up to the I-70 corridor and points eastward.  Following that storm is the possibility for another plunge of cold arctic air.  This time, there will be deep snowpack to the north and the potential is there for more bitterly cold temperatures.  

Here's snow cover across the country this Monday according to NOAA.  Look at the lack of it over the Plains!!!

 

This is the new European model total snow out to 10 days.  You can clearly see the swath of snow with the storm Tuesday/ Wednesday over the Gulf coast up into the Carolina's, AMAZING!  Now, look at the huge and fresh snow cover over the plains into the Great Lakes!!! That's from the system estimated to arrive February 4th and 5th.  As that storm leaves, a new arctic high may come out of Canada and advance over that cold snow north of us.

Lo and behold, here's the climate model (CFS) for the period February 5th through the 10th.  This is showing you near surface temperature mean forecast departure in degrees Celsius.  That's some very cold air again over the plains banked up along the front range of the Rockies diving into the southern plains and mid south.  This is indicating readings which could be at least 10 degrees Celsius below where they typically are for this time period.  This isn't showing you what the temperature will be, but the departure from what it SHOULD be for this time period.

 ________________________________________________________________________


The cold is here and it's here to stay until the middle of the week.  You know me, I'm already looking well past that.  The wildfire situation has become very bad and there's no relief this week.  However, I see signs of a significant change the first week of February.  It's a change that could bring large amounts of moisture.  I know many of you want to know what type of precipitation will be falling.  

First of all, this current cold snap breaks Thursday and we'll have rain chances this next weekend.  Not a lot of rain, but some.  Temperatures will warm up.  I just looked at the overnight run of the Euro and it indicates readings going back into the 60s by Friday, then cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend with some wet weather possible.

Next week shows an active and very challenging weather set up.  Previous runs of the European and GFS showed quite a bit of cold air around with the storm track just south of the state.  However, the new Euro and the Canadian indicates the track of low pressure will be much further to the north opening up the possibility for heavy rain and thunder.  The GFS wants nothing to do with that so we have an interesting system to watch by next Tuesday February 4th.  This being 8 days away, getting too specific is dangerous and what I like to call "meteorological malpractice".  I'm looking to an index called the "arctic oscillation" (AO) for some guidance.  When this is in its negative phase, it tends to send cold air to the south.  When it's in the positive phase, warmer air usually finds its way into Arkansas.  Meteorologist John Lewis with the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock presented some research a couple of years ago that really got my attention.  When this index jumps rapidly from negative to positive, we open up the chances for heavy rain and severe weather.  This makes sense if the cold air retreats and the storm track can shift to the north opening up the Gulf of Mexico which is our main moisture supply.

Most of the data has shown this index to remain neutral to negative as we go into February.  One run of the operational Euro from last night is the first time I have seen this pop into the positive.  Until I see more evidence, I'll consider it an error.  The GFS and a climate model called the CFS still indicate this will remain negative. 

Here's the bottom line, it appear a significant storm system will arrive by the beginning of next week.  As is usually the case this time of year, the track of this storm is far from known and it's crucial when dealing with what kind of weather we will experience.  The good news out of this is the fact our wildfire danger may improve.

The overnight run of the Euro shows low pressure over the Arklatex moving northeast.  This is valid Tuesday, Feb. 4th.  Most of the state has milder air with only some cold air locked up over the far north.  This solution is a rain maker as moisture can come in off the Gulf.

This is the GFS valid at midnight Feb 4th.  The surface low is forming over west TX.  This is further south and west than the Euro.  Remember, buying into the specifics is pointless.  The message here is cold, cold, cold with a new area of arctic high pressure nosing in from the north.  This is hinting at some frozen precip, especially from OK to the northeast.

By noon Tuesday on the 4th, the GFS shows heavy amounts of moisture with the low well south tracking more to the east, northeast.  IF this solution were right, it would turn out to be a major snow and ice storm for most of the plains north and east.

In summary, don't look at the specifics at this point.  I'm not saying we're going to have wintry weather and I'm not saying it's only going to be rain.  The point of this post is to present to you the challenges facing us next week.  That's the purpose of this blog and why I'm so thankful you come here. 

More Cold Coming and Maybe Some Moisture Too

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As advertised here for more than a week, the cold is here and it's brutal!  However, what's coming Monday into Tuesday may be COLDER!  After that, moisture may FINALLY get into the state.  Before I get into that, I want you to watch this piece of video from my interview with weatherbell.com meteorologist, Joe Bastardi.  Joe has done a great job with forecasting this past fall and winter.  He specializes in long range forecasting with what will happen months down the road. I'm sure Joe is already doing research into the hurricane season into next winter by now. LOL.  Anyway, he sent out a tweet last week saying the economic impact of the coming cold would be very significant.  Just think about what has happened already (snow in the mid Atlantic, Ohio River Valley, into New England) and listen to what he has to say...

 

Now onto the weather for us.  I'm already looking at next Monday and Tuesday and the potential for winter weather later next week.  The next strong push of arctic air will bring colder wind chill values and colder temperatures.  The overnight run of the Euro shows the cold, but I don't think it's showing how cold it will actually become.  There could be a wave of moisture bringing a wintry mix to the state next Thursday and again the following weekend (Super Bowl weekend).  REMEMBER, FORECASTING THAT FAR OUT IS NOT PERFECT AND DON'T TAKE THIS MAPS LITERALLY! SPECIFICS CAN'T BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT!  

Wind chill values next Tuesday morning.  The white area is 0 or below.  I don't think this is cold enough.

Wind chill values again Wednesday morning of next week.  Again, I think there's potential for it to be even colder than this.

The European model valid next Tuesday at midnight shows the potential for some very light snow flurries, especially across western Arkansas.  Moisture is extremely limited, but the airmass may be cold enough to squeeze out whatever moisture is available in the form of a couple snowflakes.  Not a big deal at all.  At this point, the the bigger story is the cold and wind.

By next Thursday afternoon, the arctic high is retreating and there appears to be a wave of moisture the back side.  The blue dashed line is a good indicator of the rain/snow line.  HOWEVER, I think south of this line, some ice will be possible due to the low level arctic air. As I said above, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS FOR SPECIFICS.  The underlying message I want you to take away from this is that there's some moisture possible Thursday of next week.  Who gets what and how much can't be determined at this time.  Being 7 days away, it's quite possible this could be completely wrong.  

This is where things COULD get very interesting.  Late next Friday into Saturday another boundary is draped across southern AR.  Look at the black closed line over the northern plains.  That's another cold area of high pressure.  It looks like a wave moisture comes out and precipitation overruns the cold air at the surface.  The "540 line" is north of the state.  Where this eventually ends up is a BIG ?.  One might look at this and say "rain".  I would caution you.  With that high coming down, the low level cold air could be strong enough for icing across some portions of the state.  This is more than 7 days away and there's NO doubt this will change.  I'm putting this information out there for you because I want you to be aware of the possibilities later next week and to keep checking back.

Here are surface temperatures at that time from the Euro.  Notice the very sharp boundary over southern Arkansas with warm air south of it and very cold air north of it.  You may need to click to enlarge to see these numbers.  Again, where this boundary ends up is not exactly known at this time.  Look at the air north of the boundary at ground level.  Very close to freezing or below.  That's why I have icing concerns.  Stay tuned!

Cold and Dry, Cold and Dry, Cold and Dry, MOISTURE?

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Like spokes on a tire, we have to tread very carefully here.  See what I did there? LOL.  Cold without snow is just a waste in my opinion.  The cold talked about here on the Arkansas Weather Blog for at least a week now is here and it's here to stay for at least the next 7 days.  I can't help but think, at some point, moisture is going to get involved and the overnight run of the Euro even hints at that, but I'm not completely sold on it right now.  I'll have more on that down below.  Nevertheless, right now, the flow of air around the main vortex in southern Canada is overpowering everything.  The highly amplified pattern is making the cold, dry air overwhelm areas east of the Rockies.

The vortex over southern Canada is just sitting and spinning.  You have to think about this like it's a tire on a bicycle.  Each spoke rotating (counterclockwise) around it is a surge of cold air.  Between each arctic high is a brief and minor warm up.  Also, each surge will have the potential to bring strong winds both ahead and behind of it.  This will not only make the fire danger worse, but bring very cold wind chill values.  As a matter of fact, a wind chill advisory is in effect for Thursday across northern Arkansas as the "feels like" temperature goes well below zero.

According to the European model here's the cold air schedule

1. Thursday
2. Late Sunday
3. Next Wednesday January 29th
4.  If you believe the GFS, the following weekend as well.

Later this week, the upper air pattern from the Euro really shows that bicycle tire.  Look at that deep area of yellow over southern Canada.  That massive upper low (vortex) spins counterclockwise sending waves of cold air south.  With the northwest flow, it's incredibly difficult to get moisture here.   The fire danger will remain elevated.

Let's go down to the surface.  This is the Euro valid Thursday at noon.  The black circle over the plains is a massive arctic high.  Those black lines around it are closely spaced over Arkansas.  This is a pressure gradient which results in high wind speeds.  So while the bitter cold air pours into the state, wind chill values will be brutal.

How about ANOTHER surge next Monday!  Same thing.  Another strong high comes down just east of the Rockies.  The pressure gradient is strong and wind chills will be brutal once again.  The only thing good I can tell you (if you don't like cold weather), we'll be between these cold surges this weekend so there will be a brief warm up Saturday and Sunday before this arrives.

Next Wednesday, there's ANOTHER surge of cold air.  Look at that arctic high over north Dakota!  This time however, there COULD be a wave of moisture..... COULD.  The grey and green areas show precip over the past 6 hours.  The blue dashed line (540 line) is over south of Arkansas.  This is usually a descent indicator of the rain/snow line.  So while nothing too heavy, it does show some moisture.  HOWEVER, being in the long range, doubts are high.   STAY TUNED.

Arctic Express... The January Thaw Is Officially Over.

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It's long, but once again loaded with information I think you will find very interesting.  We will have at least 2 more big pushes of arctic air over the next 7 days.

Talking More Cold Air With Weatherbell.com Meteorologist, Joe Bastardi

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Some of you may already know Joe Bastardi.  In my opinion, he's one of the nations leading long range meteorologists and it was a pleasure to interview him via Skype Thursday afternoon from his home in Pennsylvania.

Since last fall, Joe has been on top of the evolving pattern all the way into this winter.   For quite awhile he has been talking quite a bit about an upcoming cold period at the end of this month into February.  Lo and behold, the data lately is supporting his ideas.

On Wednesday, Joe sent out this tweet and it really got my attention, "I believe when totaled up, the economic impact of cold from Jan 20-Feb 5 on the US will be the winter equal of a major hurricane hit on US".  I thought it was time to interview him!

In this two part interview we discuss the possibility of the coming arctic air,  the February forecast, and the upcoming severe weather season for Arkansas.

While we were recording the interview something was wrong with my audio input so you will not hear me in this interview.  I will put up graphics with what I asked Joe.  It's a long interview, but it's absolutely loaded with great information.

Winter Roars Back?

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Keep the comments coming on the post below.  It's interesting hearing your thoughts on the Weather Channel vs. DIRECTV debate. Also, don't forget to participate in the poll on the right side of the blog.  

I promised a post about the POSSIBLE upcoming cold later this month.  This will be a brief post and I hope to have something very special for you later today or Friday morning here on the blog.  For those who are TRUE weather geeks, you WILL enjoy.  No doubt.  If you aren't, I think you will find the information coming very interesting.

The data continues to point to cold pattern for the last half of January, especially the very end of this month into the beginning of February.  Remember, cold does not mean snow, but at least you have 1 necessary ingredient right?  Will this all come together?  Only 1 person knows for sure and it isn't me.

This might look greek to you, but I'll explain it.  This is a level in the atmosphere called 500 millibars.  It's very useful for several reasons, but i want you to notice how the river of air ( jet stream)  in the upper air is arranged.  See that black closed line over eastern Alaska? This is a very amplified pattern.  That's a strong ridge of high pressure aloft.  To counter that, you can see the trough over much of the central and eastern U.S.  That black closed line near Hudson Bay in Canada is the Polar Vortex.  Yes, the Polar Vortex.  Remember, the (PV) isn't anything new, it's just new to the national media.  It's a feature that has ALWAYS been around.  When it shifts or gets displaced southward, it gets cold and sometimes VERY cold.  It's what I like to call "winter".  Anyway, this should set up and send several shots of very cold air southward.  This map is valid on Sunday, January 26th.

Don't take this literally!!!!! This is the surface temperature forecast for the same time period.  The white line is the freezing line and it's located in northern AR.  There's a very tight temperature gradient in our region which will divide the arctic air and the milder air to the south.  Where this sets up exactly is impossible to nail down this far out. However, I just want you to notice the vast cold pool of air located across the northern U.S and Canada.  That's BITTER COLD.  So here's what needs to be answered:  how far south will the cold air push if this is correct?  We may be able to shed more light on this later today into tomorrow with a new blog post.  Stay tuned.

The Weather Channel vs. DIRECTV

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I'll have more on Arkansas Weather in a new post soon, but I wanted to ask you an interesting question first.

I'm sure you have heard of the big dispute between the Weather Channel and DIRECTV.   Each side has made their position clear and it's up to them to resolve it.  However, the Weather Channel is using this on their home page as as argument for DIRECTV to keep them on their channel line up.

"As the most trusted source of comprehensive weather information before, during and after a severe weather event, our viewers have lost access to life-saving services and alerts. Our 30 years of expertise and scope of over 220 meteorologists, along with up-to-the-minute live reporting cannot be replicated by any other service."

I have a serious problem with that argument.  I don't know anyone who watches a cable channel located in Atlanta, Georgia for severe weather information.  Maybe I'm assuming too much, but don't you and most people turn to LOCAL media when severe weather is  approaching  your town?  Don't you want that information from experienced meteorologists in your own community without commercial or reality show interruption?  Also, over the past several years, social media has evolved into a major source for severe weather information.

Please participate in the poll on the right side of the page.  It's not scientific, but I thought it could be interesting to see your opinion.

A Little Ice To Wake Up To Thursday Morning

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This is something I alluded to last week when I saw the data and I never backed down or flip flopped my forecast.  Many times when the arctic high retreats to the east, a return flow will set up.  The warmer air will chase the cold air out, but during this transition, a period of wintry weather can be expected.  I fully expect this to be a LIGHT event and it will be limited in duration.  HOWEVER, as we all know, it does not take much icing to cause slick spots on the roads.  All of the roads will be prone to some slick spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to the recent cold weather making the surface temperatures very cold.  The transition to plain rain will occur during the morning from south to north as the warmer air works into the state.

Will I release a new "SCHOOL:CON" index?  I have been asked this quite a bit.  I'm very hesitant to do this since the duration of this event is limited.  It COULD be one of those situations where schools delay their openings... COULD.  I'll think about it and look at the new morning data and come to a decision.  If you live in northern or western Arkansas, I would pay attention to those closings or delays since you will be in the target area for this event.  Even central Arkansas may deal with a little ice too.

This is our model "Futurecast" which is exclusive to Channel 7.  Ignore the time stamp on this.  It indicates around .1 to .2'' of ice.  Not a huge amount at all, but again, it takes just a very little to cause slick spots and travel headaches.

During the onset of the precipitation, it could be snow flying just west and north of the metro, then it goes to freezing rain/sleet.  The Ozarks up to the Missouri border could stay snow a little longer with some minor accumulations.

This is the European model from weatherbell.com and it's showing you snowfall accumulations.  I just don't see this happening.  This model has been prone to greatly exaggerating snow amounts this winter around here.  I love this model, but I think it's "out to lunch".   The temperature profile just doesn't support this.  I think there will be warming aloft as the arctic high retreats.  You must have the complete atmosphere below freezing and I haven't seen a single piece of data indicating that will happen.  It will be interesting to watch, but I just don't see this verifying.

This is baffling as well.  The GFS shows snow accumulations across much of the state, but once again, the temperature profiles don't support this.  Also, it's precip type maps that I'll show below do NOT indicate ANY snow.  Weird!  I hope someone can tell me what's up with the models doing this.

Now onto the timing from the GFS.  This is valid at 6PM Wednesday.  The red line is the freezing line at that given time.  The purple is freezing rain, orange sleet, blue snow, green rain.  No snow around here, but the model accumulates it.  Again, I don't know why it's doing that.  Anyway, you're looking at the total amount of precip. over the past 6 hours.  So this is valid from noon today (WED) to 6PM.  I expect this to start mid to late afternoon across the west with sleet and freezing rain.  I would not be surprised to hear some snow reports, but a transition to sleet and freezing rain will occur.

By midnight, the target area is western and northern AR as that area of the state will be the coldest with the highest amounts of moisture.

By 6AM, many areas could see light icing.  Again, the duration of this will be short and the amounts will be light. Slick spots are likely though.

And by noon, the warmer air is winning and we're going above freezing.  The only portion of the state hanging onto subfreezing air is the northeast.  This is why I'm hesitant of putting a SCHOOL:CON index out there.  By mid to late morning, conditions should be improving.  Will they cancel or delay schools?  I don't make that decision.

The National Weather Service has issued a "winter weather advisory" for the northern 2/3 of Arkansas late today into Thursday morning.

Winter Weather To Kick Off The January Thaw

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This will be a quick update about the winter weather on the way late Wednesday into Thursday morning.  As I have said, I expect this to target western and northern Arkansas, but some ice and snow will be possible in central Arkansas as well.   We're NOT expecting a major storm out of this, but it could be enough to cause a few travel headaches.  Temperatures will warm above freezing Thursday morning from south to north so the impact on travel will be limited in duration.  Once this wave of moisture passes, the January thaw is on!  Will winter return?  I bet it does, but will it be as harsh as what we're coming out of now?  I have doubts.

By the way, I had doubts about us getting to 9 degrees last night, but we did it!  It was the first time we officially had a single digit low in Little Rock since February of 1996.  That's amazing!!!!!

Here's a look at our exclusive model "Futurecast".  Remember ONLY a model, and not our forecast just yet.  This may have to be adjusted.  More soon.....

Ignore the time stamp on these graphics.  Small amounts of snow will be possible, especially during the onset of the precipitation.  Futurecast indicates this will be mainly west of I-30 and west of 67/167

Then the precipitation will turn to some ice.  Even a little will cause travel concerns.  It's not much at all, but roads could have slick spots.

Possible snow statewide will target mainly northern AR.

And here are ice amounts.  Remember, this is only a forecast and the precipitation types and amounts can and will be adjusted.  Stay tuned!

Here We Go Again

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I think this cold air is every bit as harsh as we have been talking about.  The low Monday morning in Little Rock was 13 degrees.  The GFS has 12 and the NAM has 9 degrees Tuesday morning in Little Rock, but the winds will not be as high.  Will we get down into the single digits for the first time since February of 1996?  I have my doubts.  Remember, we need three things:  clear skies, NO wind, and snow cover.  We obviously don't have the snow on the ground in Little Rock.  I think the official will be 10 or 11 degrees, BUT outlying areas will go into the single digits.  I'm not saying it's impossible for Little Rock to drop into the single digits, it's just very difficult if you don't have all three of those key ingredients.  It will be interesting to watch.

We'll come out of this deep freeze as we go into Wednesday and Thursday, but a round of ice and snow will be likely late Wednesday into Thursday morning.  I expect the models are warming us up too much Thursday, but we should easily manage to get above freezing so I only expect problems for a few hours.  The target area will be western and northern Arkansas, but I think central areas have a chance as well.  At this time, I think snow will fall across at least the northern 1/3 of the state with a mix of freezing rain and sleet further south and west.  There are differences in the modeling that must be sorted out.  For instance, the GFS appears colder than the NAM.  I might be issuing another SCHOOL:CON index map Tuesday.

Here are a few maps below...

This is the Euro surface temperature maps.  The solid white line is the 32 degree line.  Everything north of it is at freezing or below.  At 6PM Wednesday, you can clearly see there's a dip in this line over western AR.  That's likely due to the fact precipitation is just starting there and the model sees some evaporative cooling over there.  With dry low level air in place, the temperature will actually drop a few degrees during the onset of the precipitation.

By midnight, most of the state is at or below freezing, except the south and southeast.

At 6AM Thursday, the freezing line is still over southern Arkansas.

According to the Euro state snowfall map from weatherbell.com, there's a good bit of snow that falls over a large majority of the state.  HOWEVER, I caution you, DON'T take this literally right now.  I think it makes more sense for snow further north given the vertical temperature profile.  While I'm not 100% sure, I think the model may be seeing sleet further south.  This is NOT our forecast at this time, just a computer model

This makes more sense to me.  The GFS from weatherbell.com.   This shows you the amount and type of precip over the previous 6 hours.  Purple is freezing rain, orange is sleet, blue is snow, and green is rain.  The red solid line is the 32 degree line at the surface.  This is valid at 6PM Wednesday.  Just like the Euro, evaporative cooling during the onset of the precip lowers temperatures over the western portion of the state.  Freezing rain and sleet is falling.  I think it's underdoing the snow across northern Arkansas.

By midnight Thursday, you can see icing problems across the north and west.  Little Rock is borderline with this model

By 6AM Thursday, we see a wintry mix across the northern half of the state.  Shortly after sunrise, temperatures should climb above freezing from south to north changing the mix to plain, cold rain.

This is from a program called "BUFKIT".  It's the GFS and it's read from right to left.  The orange lines indicate sleet from around 6PM to about 10 PM Wednesday in Little Rock.  The red lines show freezing rain from about 10PM until late Thursday, then green is rain.  I think it's holding onto freezing rain wayyyy too long.  Much still can change.

In summary, there are a few things that still need to be resolved with this Wednesday PM/Thursday AM forecast.  Precip type will be quite tricky.  Many times, arctic air is more stubborn leaving than the models indicate which would lead to a more icy scenario and a colder Thursday, however, I still think temperatures will go above freezing Thursday morning.  At this time, I think it's best to say western and northern Arkansas stand the best chance for seeing snow and ice and it could be enough to cause plenty of travel headaches.  Central Arkansas is more questionable.  STAY TUNED!

BRUTAL Cold and Northern Snow

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It's here.  I think it might be the most talked about cold front in years! LOL.  I'm writing this post Sunday morning around 7AM and it's starting to enter central Arkansas.  High temperatures are being set early, then they go into free fall.  Northern Arkansas is the target area for the snow while the BIG weather story statewide will be the extremely cold temperatures and outrageously cold wind chill values.

Sorry for the kids that go back to school Monday.  I know you wanted snow to extend your vacation, but it looks like this will target northern Arkansas.  However, it will be interesting to see if any schools close because of the wind chill advisory and warning in effect.  I have NEVER seen them do that before in Arkansas so it's something to watch.  Not my decision.

Again, cold will be king through Wednesday.  I'm still not ruling out some light ice and snow Wednesday, especially across the northern portions of the state.  I'm not going to flip flop based on each run of a model run a gazillion times a day.  It only makes sense with dry arctic air in place and precip. overrunning it for some wintry weather to occur.  To what extent is debatable.  While I don't think this will be a big deal, let's just watch it.

What about Monday and the possibility for snow I mentioned a few days ago.  I still think northern and northeastern Arkansas could see a few snow showers.  The models will not be able to pick up on these small disturbances well.  The extreme arctic air could squeeze out a few flakes out of these moisture starved disturbances.  Nothing big, but I wouldn't be surprised to hear reports come in.  I'll have a map below explaining.

I'm really shocked when I see some of the data.  Dew point values will be around -5 to -15 degrees Monday into Tuesday morning according to the GFS.  That's BONE DRY ARCTIC AIR!!!!!!!  If winds were to completely diminish and no clouds were moving overhead, air temperatures could drop well into the single digits.

Here's what we will watch in terms of actual air temperatures.  Little Rock has NOT had an official single digit low since February of 1996.  I'm convinced we must have three things to get into that territory: NO wind, NO clouds, but some snow on the ground.  I don't think we'll have all 3.  I'm NOT saying it's impossible, just difficult.

Here's something else fascinating to watch.  Little Rock has NOT had a high temperature in the teens since December of 1989!  The GFS is forecasting 18 degrees now for Monday as a high in Little Rock.  It's possible!  I think 20-22 will be a good bet.  Again, it's something to keep an eye on.

Our exclusive model, FUTURECAST, indicates wind chill values at 7 AM around 0 for much of central Arkansas.  I think it will be lower with some of the higher wind gusts!

By 3PM, it gets better, BUT NOT MUCH!  Still bone chilling cold

Once again Tuesday morning, wind chill values are around 0

A WIND CHILL WARNING is in effect Sunday night into Monday morning for north central Arkansas.  That's right, wind chills could drop to -10 to -20!  OUCH!  Across the the remainder of central and northern Arkansas... -5 to -15 with a WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

FUTURECAST, snow amounts indicate it's the northern 1/3 of the state with accumulations Sunday.

Monday snow showers?  Let me explain.  There will be an intense vortex spinning over the Great Lakes.  Along the back side of it, a strong northerly flow will send small disturbances southward in a counterclockwise manner.  This is the NAM and you see clouds rotating around it into northern Arkansas Monday afternoon and evening.  Underneath those clouds, the arctic air could squeeze out a few snow showers.  You see the NAM showing one area of that over Benton county in northwest Arkansas.  This will not be anything big, but I think we'll get a few reports from northern and northeastern Arkansas.