Cold and Unsettled This Weekend

New video going over the models for the weekend.  While it won't be a storm, we can't rule out a few snowflakes for portions of the state.

This video goes over everything from A to Z

Winter Punches Back

We still have plenty of time for winter to punch back and punch back hard.  However, what's coming at the end of the week is just a little jab.  

The January thaw has been noticeable and strong when compared to where we were from Christmas to around mid-January.  We had a break with even some severe weather (4 tornadoes), and now we are going into a more active and potentially colder pattern.

The developing pattern screams cold, but the models are getting cold feet with each run.  I'm referring to the week of February 4th.  I know, I'm getting ahead of myself.  I don't think anyone can expect the models to have a full grasp on what happens as we head deeper into February.   However, with a ridge going up into Alaska and the arctic circle, I think it will be quite easy for the cold to push south.  I just don't know at this time the furthest extent to the south.  This will also help determine where the active and potentially stormy pattern evolves.  More on that later.

The weather this week looks quiet through Wednesday, then a strong front will move through the state with a cold RAIN!!!  Yes, rain.  The question remains, how much moisture remains by the time to coldest air arrives.  The models offer varying solutions.  The Euro has a brief changeover across northern and northeastern Arkansas while the GFS shows a longer changeover and a more expansive one covering the northern 1/2 of the state.  As much as I want to believe the GFS, I can't.  However, it does have support from the operational Canadian.  Nevertheless, I think when things are said and done, it will look more like the Euro.

Are we talking big snow or just some "flakeage"?  I just made that word up.  Anyway, I don't see this being a big one whatsoever.  The ground temps have recovered so IF there is any accumulation, it would mainly be on grassy and elevated surfaces and it would be light.

This being Sunday, things can always change and that's what we are here for.

Late Thursday, the cold is here and the moisture is leaving.  However, there is a chance for a brief change to snow or rain/snow mix north and northeast Arkansas according to the newest version of the Euro.

The GFS brings the rain and snow mix further south into portions of central Arkansas late Thursday into early Friday.  While I don't believe it will look like this at this time, all amounts would be light.

Only a model! NOT a forecast.  The Euro snow amounts are negligible.

GFS snow amounts are more for obvious reasons.

NOAA 8-14 day guidance.  THESE ARE NOT FORECASTS!!!!!  This simply shows you where the confidence for average, below average, and above average temperatures exist.  When Alaska goes above average, look out!  I find it humorous when we get cold, Alaska warms up and some think it's a weird weather phenomena.  No, It's very normal.  It's how we get cold in the south.  That cold air gets dislodged and moves south.  It's only natural they warm up relative to average.  There's something you really need to notice with this map though.  Look at the area across the mid-south to the southeast.  Notice how you go from below to above over a short distance.  There will be a zone of great temperature variance and this is where the storm track will likely be found.  If the jet and the surface front is suppressed south, we're looking at winter weather chances.  If it's further north, rain and storms.

And the precip outlook in the 8-14 day time period shows where that storm track will likely exist with a good chance for above average precip from Texas to the middle Atlantic.

From WeatherBell.com.  This is the Global Ensemble Forecasting System 500mb GPH anomalies.  I would like to show you the Euro Ensembles, but it's prohibited.  Sorry. However, the GEFS is similar.  In short, look at the reds (ridging) into Alaska the week of February 4th.  You can also see the vortex spinning across Hudson Bay.  The Alaskan/arctic ridging and downstream trough is a perfect set up to deliver multiple punches of cold air. You can clearly see the flat ridging over Cuba and the Bahamas.  The cold air will be low level and will meet resistance.  Where that zone sets up will likely be from Texas into the middle Atlantic.  I don't expect the models to ever have a good handle on the location and extent of arctic air.  However, 999 out of 1000 times, it underestimates it so it will be fun to watch.

Colder, But What About Moisture?

There are signs our January thaw is coming to an end and it's perfect timing as we begin February.  You have probably heard all the rumors around social media about the coming cold.  There's little doubt it's coming.  But here are my questions: how far south and will there be moisture?

We know models have a difficult time handling the strength and southward push of low level arctic air.  While I can't be definitive, that probably answers the first question.  Now, what about moisture?  This is the time of year when we typically get more vigorous storm systems and if there's cold air in place, then anything can happen.  

There are also signs a sharp temperature contrast will set up somewhere over the mid-south and that could lead to an area of active weather.  The maps below explain and are courtesy of WeatherBell.com

The first week of February, our pattern will change and look more like it did at the end of December.  Look at the ridging in the eastern Pacific into the arctic circle.  There's the polar vortex spinning downstream over Hudson Bay.  This is a pattern conducive to delivering shots of cold air.  It might not be sustained cold, but the overall averages should be below with a pattern like this.  Again, the question is how far south the cold air will penetrate, and most of the time, it goes further south than the models predict.

The Canadian model as of February 7.  These are temperature anomalies in degrees C.  The cold air is coming down the plains and down the east slopes of the Rockies.  It meets some sort of resistance over the  Gulf States with warmer than average temperatures.  This could be a zone where it becomes active with rain, storms, and wintry weather.  It's useless to get specific at this point.  If the cold air penetrates further south, that storm track is suppressed as well.  If the colder air stays north, it would bring rain and storm chances from time to time.

GEFS total precip over the next 16 days has higher precip amounts from east Texas into the east.  THIS COULD be a sign of a more unsettled pattern taking shape and with cold air back on the playing field, it will be interesting and fun to watch unfold.

Meat's In The Freezer. Let's Go Skiing

Colorado, Colorado, Colorado!  That's all I hear from my ski friends here in Arkansas. One of the best kept secrets, until now, is just a 2 hour flight north into northwest Montana.  Deep powder, no lift lines, crowd free slopes, and incredibly friendly people make Whitefish, Montana so awesome!

You may have heard me talk about living in Montana for 2 and a half years after college.  I wanted my first job to be where it snowed A LOT.  Of course, you can't help but think of Montana as a very snowy place.  I landed a gig in Missoula, which is just a couple hours south of Whitefish.  This southern boys wanted to play in the snow and I did!  My first winter up there (1997-1998), we had 111 inches and that was in the valley.  The mountains had much, much more.  I skied all the local areas, but then discovered Whitefish and fell in love with the place immediately.

Have you ever heard of "snow ghosts"?  The trees are loaded with frost, snow, and ice in a cement like pyramid sticking out of the ground.  When you see one, you'll be in awe.  They are all over the top of the mountain and they're mesmerizing to look at.  Everywhere you look, it's a postcard.

There's nothing like skiing that mountain, then going to The Great Northern at night to relax, drink a Moose Drool, and listen to good music.  It's what I consider THE perfect day!   Downtown Whitefish is really cool western town centered around the railroad.

If you ever hear someone in Little Rock hit the lottery and I suddenly go missing, you'll know where you can find me.  Arkansas will always be home to me, but I will retire to the Flathead Valley one day. If you have been there, you know exactly why.

More than a year ago, my wife and I decided to save up and plan a trip up there.  It was our first time to go back in more than 12 years.  This was the perfect opportunity to introduce my two boys (8 and 6 years old) to the sport of downhill skiing.  They had 2, half day lessons and are now skiing quite well.  The instructors, staff, and everyone on the mountain were overwhelmingly nice and accommodating.

No, this isn't an ad for Whitefish.  I just want to share with you the place I call my home away from home.  It's a very special place to me.  If you ski or just want to see the great northern Rockies and Glacier National Park, you will not be disappointed.  You fly into a 3 gate airport, rent a car, and walk 20 yards to it with no hassle.

www.skiwhitefish.com

Here's a video I put together of our trip.

Music by John Dunnigan - "Meat's In The Freezer"

1st Widespread Snow Of The Winter

You have seen our forecasts throughout the past couple days evolve and I have a few thoughts and updates I want to share with you.

• No matter how much snow you get, roads will be slick.  Whether it's 1'' or 3'', that does not matter.  In this situation, it only takes small amounts to cause issues.

• Power outages should not be a factor.

• I think it's very reasonable to increase the snowfall amounts for much of southern Arkansas and I think it's possible for amounts to exceed 4 or 5 inches, but not much more than that for most places.  

• Central Arkansas will be on the northern fringe of the snowfall so I expect a significant gradient in snow amounts across the metro.   Again, it does not matter how much you get.  It takes very little for slick roads to develop.

• The snow will stay on the ground for a couple days.  This means if your school closes Tuesday, there's a good chance it will close Wednesday too.  I don't make those decisions. 

• Wind chill values will drop to -20° at times across northern Arkansas.  This is dangerously cold weather!  Wind chill values may drop well below zero across portions of central Arkansas too.  Remember: PEOPLE, PETS, AND PIPES.  Plants are already done.

STAY WITH CHANNEL 7 FOR THE NEWEST INFORMATION AND OUR SPECIAL EDITION OF DAYBREAK FROM 4-8AM TUESDAY.

Courtesy Pivotal weather.  The HRRR ,using the Kuchera algorithm, has amounts close to 5'' just south of the metro near Pine Bluff.  This is a model and not a forecast.  There should be a swath from SW to east central of 2-5''.  Look at the gradient across the metro.  Tough forecast.  Yes, those are lighter amounts north, but remember, it won't take much for slick roads so travel will be messy there too.

Our forecast as of 4PM Monday.  There's the swath of 2-4'' or more from Texarkana to Pine Bluff over to east central AR.  Again, I would not be surprised to see isolated higher amounts.

Snow Way?!

Please forgive me.  I have very limited access to wifi and no cell signal whatsoever where I am right now.  Due to this, I have looked at only limited data.

I expect a weak disturbance to bring areas of flurries and light snow Sunday, especially to northern Arkansas.  While this will NOT be a storm, a few slick roads can be expected.

The bigger issue is the front and moisture late Monday and Tuesday.  This has more impact due to everyone returning to work and school after a long holiday weekend.

Looking at the data, it does not scream big snow potential, but I do think flakes fly and there could very well be some accumulation.  At this time, I do not believe it will reach winter storm warning criteria, but probably a winter weather advisory.

The focus will be central and southern Arkansas!  It does not take much to close schools and I think there's a good chance some will cancel Tuesday based upon two things:  the data I have seen and my past experience on what it takes to close schools.

Stay with Channel 7 for the newest information and I will hopefully have more later.

Thanks for your understanding,

Todd

Possible Winter Weather

I continue to think this develops and intensifies east of the state, BUT there could be a few effects across portions of northern and eastern Arkansas Friday.  At this time, I don't expect this to be a winter storm.   However, I would not be surprised if northeastern areas of the state had a few slick roads Friday morning.  As I stated in a Facebook Live last night (Tuesday), if this develops further west, winter weather will be more likely.  However, most signs point towards intensification east of the state.  I have seen these things change rapidly so stay with Channel 7 for the newest information.  The surface temperature may struggle to even get down to 32° Friday morning across much of central Arkansas.  If it does, it won't last long.  Readings should jump above freezing quickly.

If you are traveling east of Arkansas into MS and TN and north of the state towards the Ohio River valley, expect winter storm conditions.  

We will have a return to cold this weekend with highs mainly in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.  

The models differ on what will happen Monday or Tuesday.  The European is very consistent with a wave of low pressure bringing wintry weather to the state and the GFS has little to nothing.  Remember, the past is a guide to the future.  It hurts to say this, but the Euro hasn't been that great lately.  GFS hasn't been great either.  This is a very low confidence forecast for that reason and because it's in the long range.

The following images are the GFS from WeatherBell.com.

It's a cold rain late Thursday with a changeover across Oklahoma and FAR NW Arkansas.

From 6PM Thursday to midnight Friday.  There's a change to sleet and freezing rain across north central Arkansas.  It's still above freezing central.  There could be a changeover across the north to light snow before ending.

The change to sleet and snow continues into Friday at 6AM, but most of the precip will be east of the state at this time.  However, it will be possible for slick roads mainly eastern and northeastern Arkansas for a time Friday morning.  Then temperatures go above freezing.

Winter For Some

This is by far not a done deal, but it does continue to appear SOME will get wintry weather Thursday night into Friday.  There are still significant differences in the modeling, but that's to be expected.  I think we'll have a better handle Wednesday.  At this time, the best chance for wintry weather will be north and east of the metro.  That does not mean we won't get any in central sections.

This video goes over the differences in the guidance and the difference scenarios. 

Guidance Again... Wintry Weather

At some point, it's going to get it right, right?  Over the past few days, the models have been back and forth with some sort of wintry weather late this week.  Of course, any specifics are pointless this far out, but it has my attention now.

Temperatures will warm up significantly by the middle of the week, then fall sharply.  As the front passes through, strong upper level energy will develop low pressure along the front.  According to the guidance, this will throw moisture back into the cold air for a brief period either Thursday night or Friday.  The favored area, according to the newest data is the northeastern half of the state.  While there's a possibility for some wintry weather, there's also a chance this develops further east and misses Arkansas.  Since this is Monday, it's too early to know.

The cold during the first 7 days was nothing short of spectacular and something we may not experience for a very long time again.  I posted the following on Twitter this morning....

• By average low temperature, the 1st 7 days of January was the 3rd coldest in Little Rock weather history with 16.7°. By this measure, it was the coldest since 1887 (131 years).

• By average high temperature, the 1st 7 days of January was the 14th coldest in Little Rock weather history, which dates back to the 1870s. By this measure, it was the coldest since 1988

• By average temperature, the first full week of January 2018 (Jan 1-7) was the 5th coldest in recorded Little Rock weather history and the coldest since 1928 (90 years). The average temperature was 27.1° 

The 00Z run of the GFS valid midnight Friday into 6AM Friday has a wintry mix across the state on the back side of a strong area of low pressure.  It should be noted, the 6Z run shows this to a much lesser extent.  However, this model is erratic in the long range.  This image is courtesy of WeatherBell.com

Courtesy of EuroWX.com.  It has the precipitation changing over to a wintry mix Friday afternoon.  Amounts are not known at this time since it's long range.  Once again, there's also a chance this does not fully develop until it gets a little more east of the state.  

Wild Temperature Swings

In-depth video going over the next week.  We have a lot of weather to deal with through the middle of January, then we should have a thaw.

This video covers

• How warm we get this week
• The chance for any wintry weather late in the week
• More cold air coming 

Wintry For Some, But Thaw In Sight

Before you get too excited, I don't see any widespread chances for wintry weather this weekend, but I do think we may have to deal with light icing across portions of northern Arkansas for a time early Sunday morning into the early afternoon.  Trust me, it's not wish-casting since the models clearly show the potential and it makes sense given the features on map. 

We will have an arctic high moving away from the state and moisture will follow.  Where those two overlap is the concern.  If you have been a reader here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, you know arctic air is stubborn to moderate and we will likely see that across northern Arkansas Sunday, especially in the valley areas.  That's where the heavy, dense air will settle and take time to scour out.  It's like trying to push a heavy brick with a garden hose.

The rain will be needed since we are still in a drought despite the heavy rain towards the end of last month.  

I'm already watching the end of next week too.  However, I urge caution since the models have been such horrible forecasting tools lately.  We will have another cold front come through and a wave of low pressure develop along that boundary.  There are signs it could develop over Arkansas, but other signs it could be further east and south.  Yes, further east and south!  Wouldn't that be fitting for how this winter has been for us?

As we go into the following week, January 15th, the well-known "January Thaw" will begin to take over and we'll have substantial warming for the last half of January.  Winter weather lovers, never fear, there's still plenty of time in February and March.

All of the following maps are from WeatherBell.com

3 hour precip from 9AM to noon Sunday has that stubborn cold air over northern Arkansas for a light wintry mix.  The red line is the 32° line and the blue line is the 35° line.  The moisture is running into the back end of the cold, sub-freezing arctic air.

From noon to 3PM, Sunday the subfreezing air is leaving the state and it's mostly a cold rain.  Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 30s for much of the northern half of the state.

By the end of next week, the GFS has a wave of low pressure developing along another arctic boundary.  Cold air is pouring into the state from the north.  This model does NOT show any wintry weather for us, but the Euro does show the potential.  Again, I urge caution in dealing with long range models.  We have seen how horrible they are this winter.

Confidence is building we'll have a good ole' fashioned January Thaw beginning the week of January 15th.  Milder Pacific air will flood the country and the arctic air will leave.  Will winter return?  Too early to know, but I would say there's a good chance.