Friday, January 26, 2007

Battle Of The MOS... Wintry Weather Looming?

WE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES USING MODEL GUIDANCE CALLED "MOS"... MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS. WE ONLY USE THIS AS A TOOL AND DON'T TAKE IT FOR IT'S WORD. ANYWAY, THE 00Z RUN OF THE ETA HAS A HIGH SUNDAY OF 36 WHILE IT'S BROTHER, THE GFS, HAS A HIGH OF 44. WE'LL SEE WHO GETS CLOSER. YOU KNOW I WOULD CAST MY VOTE FOR THE ETA 36 DEGREES.

NOW ONTO WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBILITIES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A THREAT OR TWO MAY OCCUR DOWN THE ROAD. I WAS FIRST HESITANT ABOUT IT SINCE THE PATTERN COULD BE OVERWHELMED BY DRY AND COLD AIR, BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN JUMPING ON VARIOUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AT TIMES PRODUCING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW AND/OR ICE. THE ABOVE IS FROM THE 06Z GFS FOR NEXT TUESDAY SHOWING THE FREEZING LINE SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK AT 2 METERS. IT ALSO SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF. DIFFERENT RUNS OF THE MODEL DO THE SAME THING, BUT LATTER NEXT WEEK. IT'S HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME HANDLING THE PATTERN CHANGE AND THE COLD AIR. THE "MOS" HIGH FOR TUESDAY FROM THIS MODEL IS 48 WHILE THIS SHOWS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO FREEZING AROUND NOON TUESDAY. DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY IT DOES THAT, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS MODEL IS HORRIBLE WITH ANY CONSISTANCY IN THIS PATTERN. IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING THE CANADIAN MODEL DOES INDEED SHOW A WINTER STORM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENJOY TODAY AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH PLENTY OF SUN. THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT CUT-OFF LOW MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COLD AIR FOLLOWING SATURDAY EVENING.

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