Friday, November 12, 2010

"Cold November Rain"... Not Happening

Isn't it interesting how things can change so rapidly and how horrible computer modeling can sometimes be?  Let's just look at what has happened over the past week...

Last weekend, the models were in fairly good agreement with a strong front sweeping through late Thursday into Friday with the potential for severe weather.  Where's that front right now?  It's located well west of the state and it won't make a move on Arkansas until tonight and Saturday.  Severe weather?  Very Unlikely. 

Then there's the matter of a wave of low pressure forming along the front bringing a "cold November Rain" late Sunday into Monday.  Now that surge of moisture will likely stay south of us with only small rain chance for far southern Arkansas.

So where does that leave us?

Based on the models (you think I would learn not to trust them), cooler and drier.  Once in a drought, it's tough to get out of one!  Remember, if we receive 6.45'' of rain or less through the end of the year, we will end of as one of the top 10 driest on record for Little Rock.

Friday will be our last "warm" day for awhile.  Look for highs near 80 which should fall just short of records.  Temperatures return to reality over the coming days with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Another front may sweep through the state next Wednesday, but no rain is expected at this time.  What was that forecast for La Nina again?  Warm and dry?  Be patient winter weather lovers.  It will happen, even this year!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Really praying that severe weather season goes and hides somewhere! I really don't like that about Spring! Totally AWFUL! Really don't know how someone can say they want Severe! NO WAY!

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, I am still sticking by my predictions, that I made back on Nov.3, As far as the cold air & possible wintry weather for the Nov.20-30.I will say this"THE LIMB I AM ON IS GETTING A LITTLE SHAKEY"LOL.I know most of the models are trending back warmer for that time period.I still beleieve this will change to what degree, we will have to wait & see. I have been doing some research on the current & forcasted values of the NAO & AO,With these values we have seen some cold periods, In fact,The NAO & AO could change dramatically in the next 6-10 days, sending us into the deep freeze if the Polar Vortex was to strenthen. No, I am not saying that it will happen but it is very possible. The set up is there Very Cold very high pressures in Western Canada. Side Note" The Southern United States may have to be dealing with a Winter Storm during Thanksgiving Week" It's way to early to spectulate this far out, Again may not even happen. We will just have to wait & see. ...

Anonymous said...

I was looking at next Friday/Saturday models and some are hinting at maybe a cold shot of air into Arkansas and northern Louisiana.

Anonymous said...

hope your gut feeling is right snowbird bob i like snow bring it on please my kids beg

The Weather Fanatic said...

Bob,

It's bound to happen sooner or later. If we miss out on Turkey week, then the middle to later part of December is my target for something significant. It sure would be nice to have some type of wintry precip for one or both of the holidays. Time will tell..Keep the faith!

The Weather Fanatic

Anonymous said...

Im gonna go about mid december before we start seeing the snow or ice or even plain rain. I mean where in a strong la nina so it will take a while to brak out of it. My snow forcast for northern arkansas is ranging from 6 to 10 inches. Less the more south you go. Thats where im standing on how much well get this year.