Isn't it interesting how things can change so rapidly and how horrible computer modeling can sometimes be? Let's just look at what has happened over the past week...
Last weekend, the models were in fairly good agreement with a strong front sweeping through late Thursday into Friday with the potential for severe weather. Where's that front right now? It's located well west of the state and it won't make a move on Arkansas until tonight and Saturday. Severe weather? Very Unlikely.
Then there's the matter of a wave of low pressure forming along the front bringing a "cold November Rain" late Sunday into Monday. Now that surge of moisture will likely stay south of us with only small rain chance for far southern Arkansas.
So where does that leave us?
Based on the models (you think I would learn not to trust them), cooler and drier. Once in a drought, it's tough to get out of one! Remember, if we receive 6.45'' of rain or less through the end of the year, we will end of as one of the top 10 driest on record for Little Rock.
Friday will be our last "warm" day for awhile. Look for highs near 80 which should fall just short of records. Temperatures return to reality over the coming days with highs in the 50s and 60s. Another front may sweep through the state next Wednesday, but no rain is expected at this time. What was that forecast for La Nina again? Warm and dry? Be patient winter weather lovers. It will happen, even this year!