Tuesday, November 09, 2010

National Weather Festival and Beyond

11 AM Wednesday Update... Here's a quick update regarding the potential for "Cold November Rain" in a few days.  There's little doubt about a disturbance coming in with chilly air in place.  The only thing that the models going back and forth on is the timing of the feature.  Right now, it looks like a Sunday afternoon/Monday morning event with chilly temperatures.  

The latest run of the GFS indicates highs Sunday now in the lower 50s and lows Monday morning in the upper 30s with rain likely.  Many times the model temperature is too high in these situations.  I want to stress here, we are only looking at rain... nothing frozen whatsoever!  It's only Wednesday so the scenario could still change.  I'll have more later.

Starting today, if you click on "comments" a window will pop up.  You can read what everyone is saying here and add you own comment.
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As promised, the trip Ninja took to Norman, OK for the National Weather Festival is up on the blog.  If you're into storm chasing, you're going to want to check out this video then click on "Ninja's Corner" at the top of the page.  I'm already making plans to head out there with him next year.

video



video

Many of you have heard the rumors of colder weather for the last half of the month which could make Arkansas go "Cold Turkey"  Starting next week, the pattern is set for amplification.  This means a significant ridge of high pressure will build into western Canada with a trough downstream.  The western Canadian ridge will be able to tap into colder air and deliver shots of it southward into the United States.  So what about precipitation?  I expect at least a couple rounds of cold rain.  I'm not going to speculate about wintry weather, but I'm watching it and all the bloggers are watching it as well.

The National Weather Service release of their long range outlook over the past few days caught some attention.  It basically backs up the theory of a colder pattern developing.  The areas of deep purple means there's a high level of confidence of below average temperatures.  How much those temperatures drop is hard to say, but considering the warm fall, it will be welcomed my most of us!!!!!!

6 to 10 day outlook
8-14 day outlook

10 comments:

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, Taking a look at the latest computer models, Nearly all the Arctic cold building in the Northern Hemisphere looks to be postioning itself in Central & Western Canada over the next 10-14 days. That's alot of cold air, If that holds true, As we see series of systems moving across the country, each time it should tap into that cold air draging it southward further into the United States, If we have a strong enough push of all that air it will be hard to stop that kind of arctic airmass. That could set the stage for some wintry weather,if there is moisture available & a cold period. We Shall See..

The Weather Fanatic said...

Can you say BURRRRRR Rabbit? LOL..I guess I better get that firewood soon!!

Anonymous said...

just curious but are yall talking about it getting cold this Sunday/ Monday? The forecast still shows 60's? That will be crazy! It's so warm right now. Can't Wait! I love the blog! Yall do a great job!

Kevin said...

It now says 50s if that warm! NWS

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, Just a few comments on this boring weather evening before, Things get a little more interesting. I know many of the recent models are not showing the arctic cold being delievered this far south over the last few runs.I feel that will change as we draw closer to next week, The models do not do a good job with Arctic Airmasses, As Todd stated in the interview, sometime the models do not see the cold air even when it is on top of you.I know many sources out there are comparing this La Nina year with the year 1995-96, Well, If that's the case, I remember Feb.3 & 4 of 1996, Us here in Northern La had heavy sleet, with Thunder & Lightning with Temps in the mid 20's, I beleive Southern Arkansas was hit pretty bad at that same time, followed by low's in the 5-12 degree range. So, We still might have some good winter to hag our hat on, even as we head into the later part of winter also. We Shall See...

Drake said...

Well, the GFS only wants to go into the upper 30s in southern Arkansas. What are the chances of seeing some mix in Arkansas Sunday-Tuesday?? lol

Skywatcher said...

While I see a cold rain in our near future, I just can't buy in to the possibility of a wintery mix. Hopefully I'm wrong!

Anonymous said...

whats the news about the turnaround? We need details! Please. :)

Anonymous said...

Well Todd looks like the cold and wet pattern is not going happen. Do you think we will still get some rain in the next few days?

Kevin Conant (weatherman15) Amatur Forecaster said...

Thursday into Friday

November 18 through 19...Winter Weather Event Possible


00z Thursday

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/model/conus/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_20HR.gif

12z Thursday

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/model/conus/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_21HR.gif

00z Friday...

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/model/conus/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_22HR.gif

12z Friday

http://charlie.wxcaster.com/model/conus/cfs/CONUS_CFS_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_23HR.gif

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Thursday Morning through Afternoon...00z The freezing line or the 540 line is over Northern Arkansas...A little light snow or mixture is possible if this solution varifies

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Thursday Night...12z
The freezing line or the 540 line is over Northwest Araknsas...Light to Moderate Snow is possible over Northwest Arkanas with rain and thunderstorms elsware likely...If it varifies

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Friday...00z

The freezing line is still over Northwest and near the Mena, AR area and light snow will be possible for the areas just mentioned...A mix is possible for Little Rock and Eastern Oklahoma if this varifies...

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Friday Night..12z

The freeze line is in Lousiana and light snow is possible for all of Arkansas...If this varifies