Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Tracking A White Christmas. Video Blog Discussion

I'LL BE LIVE ON "THE BUZZ" 103.7 THURSDAY MORNING SOMETIME AROUND 8 OR SHORTLY AFTER.


I would like to think I'll be talking about the weather, but with those guys, it could be anything.

5:30 PM Wednesday Update... This is just not coming together like I was hoping it would.  This is why I have cautioned everyone and only called for accumulations across northern Arkansas and that should be on the light side.  Things can still change and I'll keep looking over the data.  The piece of energy coming at us from the west looks to stay too far south and the cold air to support snow won't arrive until later Christmas Eve.  A push of energy from the north will bring very light accumulations to northern Arkansas.  I still think it's possible for a few flakes to fly across the central portions of the state.  Now, that's better than nothing right?  I'll keep you updated here and on twitter!!!

11:45 AM Wednesday Update... A few items here. First of all, I will maintain my northern Arkansas forecast with only a dusting at best central sections. I am very cautious about the whole system due to the stubbornness of the GFS southward track.

THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL BY ANY STRETCH! I also think there's a chance all we get is a few flurries and that's it. So many things can and will change. I think we'll have a better handle on this late today or Thursday AM.

The WeatherNinja has convinced me to make an appearance on the Buzz Thursday AM so you might want to listen. More updates later.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Im at work cant watch the video discussion phone wont support it but i can imagine its looking bleak for a white christmas in little rock because all i have to do is look at todds percentage is still 18 percent chance has not budged so i guess the models are not our friends anymore..oh well life goes on.

Pintailkiller said...

OMG - Todd said snow. I've got to go to the grocery store for milk and bread!

Amy said...

OH....Anonymous Hugh, or Hugh-like blogger....you'll feel much better once you get a load of Todd in his reindeer horns singing White Christmas!! Great job, Todd! This is definitely a classic! Thanks for not taking yourself too seriously and making weather fun!! What an exciting week on the blog!!! Now, keep us posted as the models continue to roll in throughout the day!!

Caleb said...

Hi Everyone,
I was just going to mention that I was looking on the accuweather website and one of their headlines was " christmas snowstorm shifting south". Also I was looking at the forecast for Malvern, AR where I live and ther is a 60 percent chance of snow/sleet. We may get a white christmas after all. As Snowbird would say, " We shall see!"

Amy said...

And now the NWS has issued a special weather statement concerning this possible "event". Excitement is gathering......I know..I know.....don't get your hopes up!!!! TOO LATE!!! LET IT SNOW!!!

Chad Gardner said...

Ouch... the Android jealousy is getting pretty heavy around here. I love that I can watch these video blogs on my DroidX while iPhone users... well... they'll have to wait until they get home.

I might have to do some snow-chasing in Alabama. It'll be tough to pull me away from our Christmas Eve shrimp boil along the gulf though. ;-)

Eric said...

Been reading tweets not good news looks like little rock going to get zip out this system. Oh well we still have 55 more days or so for a realistic chance to see snow this year.

Anonymous said...

Hey Todd i see you are talking about the gfs going south in your tweets will that mean snow for south ark? and whats the big WOW for new years?

Daryl Stout said...

I too, thought it was the bread and milk that went first of the shelves when a winter storm approached. But, others have told me the most important things are "beer and toilet paper"...I guess to each his own on priorities (grin!). If we do get winter precipitation, I'd rather it be snow, as you can get traction on it, although the bridges and overpasses may be slick. However, if freezing rain/freezing drizzle occurs, all bets are off.

Daryl, AE5WX

snowfreak said...

im going crazy. OMG PLZ DNT LET THIS B LIKE LAST YEAR. how did OKC get a blizzard but when the preccip got to us we got a flurry of two....... plz let it snow....TODD, MAKE IT SNOW!!!! o yea. has anybody looked at the NAM model lately.

Caleb said...

Snowfreak,
I am also going crazy. I'm going back and forth from website to website looking for updates. Also I did look at the NAM model and it is taking the accumulations further south! Let it snow!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Im disappointed about no white christmas but we still have two months to get snow. Winter just started yesterday little rock had snow in april one year maybe that could happen again this year

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone & Merry Christmas, I picked the "Snowbirdbob Sweet Spot" For Harrison,Arkansas Total Snowfall 1-3 inches. My opinions on the Little Rock area, yall seem to be stuck in between "a rock & a hard spot" lol, I know thats not funny,But looking at the model data, thats what it looks like to me.So, I feel yall will see light snow maybe a dusting. Here is a situation that could bring Central & Southern Ark lots more snow, The low needs to track further north across Central or Northern La,Also, it would need to deepen faster, that would draw more cold air into the system, therefor more snow. It would also need to slow down to allow this to happen. Do I beleive will happen No, Is it possible, Yes. Infact, If this was to pan out I would have picked the Snowbird Sweet Spot" in the El Dorado,Ark area Total Snowfall 3-6 inches. & Total snow for the Little Rock area around 1 inch, Like I said, the Little Rock area just seems to be in the wrong spot this time, Hey, Mother Nature has the last laugh.. So We Shall See..

Kevin Conant (weatherman15) said...

Are weather models even showing this possibility...I have been praying for 4 or more inches of snow for Southern Arkansas (Nashville, AR) for Christmas Eve

Anonymous said...

Maybe, maybe not, but I'm still joyously dancing and singing around the house "we're going to have snow for Christmas, we're going to have a White Christmas, la la la la la!" lol

I'm in Searcy, accuweather says 1.6" for us Friday.

Anonymous said...

Im in Bull Shoals and accuweather said 3.4 inches of snow. Is is possible that we could see around 3 inches of snow up here?

tboyce1979 said...

I think I've just lost all hope after seeing Snowbirds post :( But congrats everyone else...see you guys next year!!! Merry Christmas :)

snowfreak said...

all of these northern arkansans are sending me into a deepening depression. you ALWAYS get more snow than us with every system.... WE DESERVE A TURN!!!!!! gosh.
Also, why has everyone given up hope... does anyone remember the last day of february 2009. a measley 30% shance for snow and we get son accumulation. yet the very next system with its 80% chance of precip was a bust.... these models have nothing on mother nature.... you just gotta believe!!!!! :)

Anonymous said...

Im sorry the little rock area wont get snow but we still have jan an feb an march an first of april lets just wait our sniw will come maybe next week ninja said on the buzz next week is looking snowy for central / southern ark lets just all be patient last year little rocl had no.snow at all until feb then wham over 7 inches in one day

raishaw said...

Sorry, but I am not excited yet. I have been following these systems for the last two years only to have them go bust when they got to Pine Bluff. It seems like everyone around us got snow. I'm tired of getting my hopes up only to be let down. Mother Nature is like every other woman I know, myself included. You can't MAKE her do anything! So I'm done with the dancing and wishcasting. I will just wait patiently until I SEE snow. THEN, I will get excited. ;-) As far as Pine Bluff's chances go with this system, I have to agree with Todd's statement about our last chance for snow -- there's no need to run to the store. We already have everything we need. All that said, I would love for Mother Nature to prove me wrong! However, I am not holding my breath.

Anonymous said...

And all of these central arkansans are sending me into a deeper depression. YOU WILL GET YOUR TURN!!! Just beause its northern arkansas dont mean we get a white christmas all the time. Gosh i just asked!