5:30 PM Tuesday Update... Here's my advice, don't get too excited yet! As I stated today, it's only Tuesday and these computer models could just as easily move the other direction tomorrow, but I will say this... THE TREND IS OUR FRIEND!
I am continuing my idea of snow accumulations up north. How far south is still very questionable. Below are two of the midday computer model runs showing snowfall accumulations.
I will have a new post and video blog discussion Wednesday.
|18Z NAM showing 1-2 inches of snow across northern Arkansas by Christmas morning|
|18Z GFS showing snowfall accumulations of at least 1'' across portions of central and northern AR.|
2 PM Tuesday Update... Just looked at some of the data in depth and I'm sticking to my guns with the chance for a little snow across northern Arkansas Christmas Eve and early Christmas Day. I do think it's possible for few flakes to fly as far south as Little Rock, but if anything accumulates, it should be the far north. Still time to change and I'll keep you updated.
12:30 PM Tuesday Update... If you have been following the latest information on twitter, you know there is some real excitement about the prospects for snowfall Christmas Eve and Day! I want to caution everyone not to get too worked up about the idea just yet. It's only Tuesday, but there are some very encouraging signs. The track of the low is further south and maybe even slower. I still expect rain with a change over to some frozen precipitation later in the day. All we can continue to do is wait and see.
This is all fairly amazing to watch considering today we're pushing 70 degrees. The record is 74 set in 1889. I don't think we'll hit that due to cloud cover, but watch out.... temperatures will tumble in the coming days!!! I'll keep you updated here and on twitter!
All of you know I have been "wishcasting" Christmas snow for several days now. I think it's time now to officially "forecast" it. Here's what I want to stress... not everyone will see it and it won't be much.
If this all comes together, it will be the second straight year portions of Arkansas have seen a white Christmas. You may remember last year an intense storm brought several inches of rain Christmas Eve. On the back side of the storm, the rain changed to accumulating snow for northwestern sections while central Arkansas saw a few flurries after midnight. This system is NOT as intense, but locations north of Little Rock may have an opportunity to see some light snow before the system moves away. There could be light accumulations, but it's still too early to know for sure.
Each run of the computer generated models indicates a southern track for our system Thursday and Friday. I would like to see it slow down some and more cold air get involved, but then I would go back to "wishcasting". At this point in time, it looks like rain (much needed) will overspread the state Thursday. As colder air comes into the area, it may change over to some light snow or flurries across the north later in the day and into the morning on Christmas Day.
On Christmas Day, I expect a few lingering flurries across the northeast, then clouds will decrease. Highs will struggle to get out of the 30s for central and northern Arkansas with northerly winds 10-20 mph and gusty.
Remember, things can and likely will change. I will update here often and plan a "Video Blog Discussion" Wednesday.
Now onto some computer models...
The chart below is from the European showing a surface low near New Orleans. The red lines are isobars. With a 1036mb high coming out of Canada, the pressure gradient shows a cold, northeasterly wind flow at the surface. The "540 line" is slicing through Arkansas with some lingering precipitation north of it. This is the area where a little changeover to some light snow could occur before ending.
|Tuesday 00Z European valid Christmas morning|
|Tuesday 00Z European snow cover|
|00Z Tuesday GFS 120 hour snow accumulation|
|00Z Tuesday GEM total snow cover|
Once again, I will have updates throughout the day on twitter and on the blog. I will also produce another video blog discussion Wednesday. Until then snow lovers, let's keep hoping!