Sunday, December 19, 2010

Video Blog Discussion Sunday December 19th

Click on "Ninja's Corner" above for Christmas Karaoke. 

8 AM Monday Update... Just looked at the latest run of the Euro and it shows my "wishcasting".  It slows the system a bit and digs it further south giving more people a chance for snow Christmas Eve.  I WANT TO MAKE THIS CLEAR... I am not basing a forecast off of one model run that appears to be the outlier among all other pieces of data.  With the system still several days away, there will likely be more fluctuations with the track, strength, and timing.  I am going to maintain a chance for snow flurries or snow showers across the north before ending.  I'll keep you posted.  In the meantime, let's keep "wishcasting" and enjoy the videos Ninja posted on his corner of Christmas Karaoke.

3:30 PM Sunday Update... Let me define "white Christmas"... snowflakes flying in Little Rock.  Not necessarily sticking to the ground ,but flying in the air.

17 comments:

Alan said...

Todd,

I have to say I am enjoying your "Chance for a white Christmas..." section on the side.

I told my wife the other day you increased the chances and she got all excited then I said "ya... to 4%". She did not throw anything at me but she gave me "the look".... LOL

Alan

Eric said...

thanks todd for wishcasting but we realize there is a 96 percent chance for a non white christmas. looks to be typical chilly but no moisture. i think january is going to bring a five inch snow for about the northern two thirds of arkansas somewhere between jan 11- jan 19th, now im doing a little wishcasting hey its all in the fun. lol

tboyce1979 said...

Nat'l Weather SErvice has a 20% chance for Friday night :) This is getting interesting! My dad says you guys are all crazy and looking at the wrong radar! HAHAHAH!!

Daryl Stout said...

Here's an excerpt from the new Area Forecast Discussion (256pm CST Dec. 19, 2010) from the National Weather Service, Little Rock, which has the following:

"Rain chances will enter the forecast Thursday afternoon, before increasing rapidly during the evening hours. The cold front will move through mostly during the overnight hours, which will keep the thunder mention out of the forecast. Behind the front, the European is showing small amounts of wrap around moisture, so have introduced a rain snow mixture for Friday night into Christmas Day. However, the pops will be small, and am only expecting snow flurries in the air, NOT on the ground. In the coming days, as the models come into better agreement, there will be a better handle on if any precipitation will be left for Christmas Day".

From what I've seen, the models have a hard time with arctic air, and precipitation...and the GFS is "cold biased", in my opinion. But, I noted the "White Christmas Potential" was up to 10%. Keep wish-casting, Todd!! :)

Daryl Stout, AE5WX
The Weather Wonder (Wx1der)

Anonymous said...

Hey I would like to hear some thoughts on the gfs 0z around the 30th -3rd if that could happen it would be nice.

SNOWBIRD BOB said...

Hello Everyone, Regarding the Christmas Eve possible event, There is still way to much time to say for sure, If yall will get flurries or a alot more, I would have to say, from what I see, I would say flurries or light snow at best, But "WATCH OUT" In my opinion that could be just a taste for what could be brewing sometime between Dec.28-Jan.1, Not only that timeframe also, there are more systems lined up ready for a ride across the nation after that, Let's have some fun here, Given the research & gut feeling"more on research lol. I beleive that parts of Arkansas will be under Winter Storm Warnings sometime between Dec.28-Jan.10, Hey if I am wrong, I know yall will let me know lol.Maybe that' being a little BOLD or Wishcasting, This dry winter is going to break,lets hope we can start it up with a few winter storms, hopefully SNOW "Not ICE. We Shall See...

Jason H said...

The chances has more than doubled today, you must have seen something. :-) Im with snowbirdbob. Things should really get active in the days after Christmas. The tap to our best friend "The Gulf" hopefully will come open, and I dont see the cold air moving much, maybe even getting colder after the 1st. Could be a good snow, and maybe a BIG Ice Storm somewhere in the South around the 28th-2nd !?!? Still hoping for at least a dusting Christmas morning up here in Randolph County, Wishcaster-Jason

Alan said...

Todd,

Please don't define a white Christmas as a few flakes flying in Little Rock.

If a few flakes fly between 2:00am and 2:30am on December 25 that this NOT a white Christmas.

It does not have to be a half inch of snow but at least enough for most people to see it falling for a while (not 10 minutes) or not melt on the ground in a few grassy patches.

The definition of a white Christmas is not the same a did a flake fall at the reporting station.

Put that up as your poll and see how others vote.


Respectfully,

Alan

Amy said...

Snowbird....I see a WSW on New Year's Eve!! One of the models I looked at had us rockin and rollin that day! And Todd, a little weather blog representation is in order at Christmas Karaoke!! You were noticeably absent last night! A rousing rendtion of "Let it Snow" with you and Ninja and Snowbird would be alot of fun!! You guys should think about it for next year!! I'm lovin how this little tiny piece of hope for Christmas snow has made its way into the forecast!! It's Christmas....and anything can happen!! It's going to be a fun week on the blog!!

Eric said...

Lets All hope we c at least a few flakes on the 24th or 25th in little rock that would be great . I sure like the accuweather forecast for little rock on the 28th of course we all know accuweather is like the outlier of all weather sites, but it sure is nice to see at least for one day tomarow it probally say sunny and 60 degrees lol.

Weatherman15 (Kevin Conant) said...

A "Winter Storm Warning" will likely be issued for the area between December 28 and January 2nd...

The old weather almanic shows a Snow Storm for the Southern Plains between December 30th and January 2nd...

Models are showing alot of precip down the road after Christmas

Anonymous said...

Looks like late december could be wet weather channel has little rock showers an in the low 50s for highs

Anonymous said...

Hey todd i wont get excited until u boost that percent up to at the very least 40 to 45 percent but understand that is prob unrealistic with this system i was excited to hear maybe late this week may be intresting then i looked at weather channel extended forecast and they had 53 degrees with showers on the 28 then i went to intellicast they had 50 degrees with showers. looks like be to warm for snow in little rock late in december. looks like christmas eve may be our only chance for snow in central arkansas for a long while

Jason H said...

With the way models are looking now, what would you say our chances are up here in Randolph?

WeatherNinja said...

Amy,

I have done Christmas Karaoke twice (once as the Hoggy Bottom Boyz and year before last as the Osmond Brothers. I tried to get Todd into it this year and he won't do it. Next year, I'm thinking of doing a little Kung Foo Fighting..

Jason H said...

This is what I love about weather. Just a couple days ago we are talking about a warm Christmas with a 0% of snow, with maybe a warm Jan. Now here we are 48 hrs later talking about a "chance" of a White Christmas and some Super cold air with multi storms maybe on the way....No matter what a model tells ya, its going to do whatever it really feels like doing. Models 7-10 days out are only good for hints and thats about it.

Amy said...

C'mon, Todd!! Live a little!!! You couldn't be worse than Ray Tucker!!! LOL!!!