9:30 PM Tuesday Update... Thanks everyone for a huge, successful, and FUN night on "Arkansas Weather Live". The two main models are now showing roughly 4 inches for Little Rock with higher amounts out west. The only model that counts is "reality" so we'll see what happens Wednesday. It has been brought to my attention that the models are under forecasting snowfall amounts that fell in Kansas today. That will have to be watched for us as the moisture moves into Arkansas. I expect the snow to arrive in central Arkansas around 7 am to 11 am.
I will activate a new post Wednesday that I think you will enjoy. Time for sleep!
12:40 PM Tuesday Update... Nothing has really changed from this morning. The NAM is still the most extreme when it comes to snowfall, but has shifted a little south. The new GFS shows the low end of possible snowfall, but the target from both models are the higher elevations of western Arkansas. The latest Euro puts out .23'' of water which will equate to 4-8'' of dry powdery snow. I posted below a new version of Futurecast and the latest 12Z GFS snowfall.
We're within 24 hours of the event and there are still MAJOR disagreements between the models with snowfall amounts. The extreme NAM has come down a bit with its outrageous totals and the GFS is steady as she goes with much lower amounts.
I want to highlight the differences between the models and look at how much water each shows..Euro .21'' , GFS .14'', and the NAM is showing an incredible .61'' of water. This huge difference is reflected in the amount of snow produced by each model. Remember though, we are dealing with cold temperatures and very high snow ratios. This means it won't take much water to produce a lot of snow. We're talking about rations around 15:1 to 20:1. This means for every one inch of water, that would equate to 15 inches of snow. This dry, powdery snow will not be good for snowball making, but GREAT for sledding!
The target continues to be western Arkansas no matter what model you look at. I strongly feel the higher elevations in that section of the state will see in excess of 8'' of snow and probably even higher. The further east, the snowfall amounts will decrease.
Let's look at some of the models: Using the Cobb method, the 6Z GFS gives Little Rock 2.1'' and the 6Z NAM gives us 8.8''. When I put the models into my bufkit program, the 00Z NAM shows 10'' while the GFS gives us 2.4''
There's no doubt this winter has been snowy as Little Rock now has 8.7 inches of snow and now we're only 4.7 inches away from breaking into the top 10 snowiest years on record. Remember those forecasts for a dry and warm winter due to La Nina? LOL!
I'll throw this out there as well and make a BOLD prediction. I'm really going out on a limb here. At sometime next week, we'll hit 70 degrees. How's that for a BIG turn around.
Don't forget Arkansas Weather Live tonight at 7 PM right here on the blog. Tell your friends and neighbors. If you haven't seen it before, it's all about FUN. It's not the 10 o'clock news for sure! We'll talk about all the possibilities out there and even give away one or two blog t-shirts.
Check out the maps below for accumulation possibilities and timing of the snow. Thanks for reading the Arkansas Weather Blog... We Are Your Ticket To BIG Weather Events!
|New 12Z NAM which looks realistic with snowfall placement, but still very high on its amounts. It shows a bullseye of high snow totals in the mountains of western and northwestern AR with decreasing amounts further east.|
|Official Channel 7 snow forecast for Wednesday|
|Exclusive and latest version of Futurecast|
|Channel 7's exclusive Futurecast from the 00Z run last night. It's very similar to the 12Z run yesterday, but shows slightly less for northwest Arkansas.|
|00Z NAM and its extreme scenario|
|The 00Z GFS and its less snowy look|
|This is the NSSL high resolution WRF showing precipitation types at 6 AM Wednesday. I wanted to show this for timing purposes. I don't expect the snow to arrive in central Arkansas until 7-10 AM Wednesday|