Thursday, June 23, 2011

Whether We Like It Or Not... 100 Degrees, Here We Come

9:45 PM Saturday Update... I'll start a new post soon about a chance for showers and storms Tuesday.  The upper level high will move westward a bit allowing a disturbance to move in on a northwesterly flow aloft.  Not everybody gets rain, but at least there's a chance.  New post coming Sunday!

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We haven't hit 100 degrees since August 21st of last year and I think we will have a shot at doing it next week whether we like it or not.  The raw numbers from the GFS indicates Little Rock could hit and exceed 100 by the middle of next week.  I want to go on the record by saying I hope it does NOT happen.

Remember the 3 things necessary for 100 degree temperatures: dry ground, strong high pressure, and complete sunshine.  We'll have all three of those next week, however, some places have seen rainfall recently and that may keep temperatures just below the century mark.

I have updated the summer contest numbers so check that out.  Below is an explanation of the situation next week using model data.

The upper air pattern, according to the GFS, features a developing, sprawling area of high pressure across the southern half of the country.  The main storm track is located to the north with a storm moving into the Pacific northwest.  That storm may actually intensify the ridge over our region of the country later in the week.

These are the GFS forecast temperatures Tuesday afternoon.  There's an enclosed area of 100 degrees along the Louisiana and Arkansas border.
The GFS Wednesday points to widespread 100 degree temperatures over the western half of the state including Little Rock.  It's interesting to note the eastern areas could stay below that 100 degree threshold.  You may recall, this area of the state has seen "some" wet weather over the past couple of weeks.  Remember, one of the necessary ingredients for triple digit heat is a dry ground.
By next Thursday, the upper air pattern shows a strengthening ridge of high pressure right over the central portions of the country.  The storm over the Pacific northwest is amplifying the pattern.  That storm will have absolutely NO chance of making it into our region.  This indicates a very hot pattern as we roll into July.

1 comment:

SnowbirdBob said...

Hello Everyone, Snowbirdbob here with ya.. We'll were far from anykind of winter weather right now!! The words so far this late spring & early summer is HOT & DRY!! We'll we have a had a few showers & storms here & there, with a few cooler days.. I am going to give my personal long-range forecast for July & Aug.. I get my forecast from many man hours studying all the lastest computer models,AAO,PNA,AO & many more sources such as the Farmers Almanac.. I beleive as we head into the first of July the tropics will start to come alive in the Gulf, But will we get any moisture from any of these systems is the big question, We have to get the big ridge to break down or better yet retrieve northward..It is possible that these systems could find weakness in the ridge & bring some much needed rainfall for all of us.. I do think that all in all there will be several landfalling tropical cyclones this season, than we have had over the past few years..& The Gulf to me is a real concern, I guess you could say those waters have not been disturbed in quite some time..As far as temps are concerned for that time-frame, I expect to see near normal temps to slightly below normal for this time-frame..As far as the near term, The first named storm for this season could be in the making in the June 30- July 4 time-frame in the Central to Western Gulf of Mexico..All in All I look for a pattern change to more cooler & stormy weather pattern as we round out the end of this month heading into the first of July...We Shall See..