Saturday, November 26, 2011

Mother Nature Throws A Cold Punch

The winter contest numbers are posted.  Just click on the link in the navigation bar above.  Good luck!

Get ready and hold on tight!!  The weather will take us on another wild wide over the next few days.  After rain and a few rumbles of thunder Saturday, it will turn much colder and windy.   We have been talking about an area of low pressure aloft which will cut off from the main flow.  While there are still model disagreements, the low should cut off close to the state.  This will keep clouds and a few light rain showers around, especially for those closer to the area of low pressure.  The conditions in the upper levels of the atmosphere appear favorable for frozen precipitation to fall, but surface temperatures should be well above freezing.  If any snow can mix in with the rain, it will be light and confined mainly to northern and eastern areas.  Ground temperatures are also way too warm for anything to accumulate.

As I have been saying on Saturday Daybreak, if there are any snowflakes, it will NOT be anything significant.  The BIG weather story will be the turn to much colder weather as highs today reach 70, but won't get out of the 30s and 40s Sunday and Monday with even colder wind chill readings.

Remember, you can always send pictures and video to photo@katv.com

This is our exclusive model, "Futurecast".  This shows the cold upper low sitting on top of Arkansas.  This will definitely bring a chill to the air.  If there are any light rain showers, a few wet snowflakes COULD mix in at times.

This is the overnight run of the NAM.  It indicates snowfall accumulations in eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee, and northern Mississippi.  I think it's overdone due to the warm ground and surface temperatures above freezing.  However, this does give a good indication where a few flakes could fall.  I'll keep you updated

12 comments:

JasonBHampton said...

Ground temps are way to warm for it to amount to anything, not to mention the ground will also be wet, and temps will remain above freezing. Anyway it will nice to see some flakes flying around! Early start to what will be a December to Remember. Even COLDER air coming down 1st-3rd and maybe First Winter Advisory or Watch 5th-10th? This is gonna be fun.

Anonymous said...

Annoying how if we get a few flakes in the air all the schools shut down and they put a winter warning in effect. But in north they could get a blizzard and still have to go to school.

Omarr Wilson said...

Guys This will Def Be a "December to Remember". But I'm Skeptical about any Wide Spread Accumulations This Year due to Ground Warmth...

Anonymous said...

lets challenge the 14 inches of snow that little rock had last winter and the 15 north little rock had. i believe we could see more this winter . i know the record is 26 inches for little rock that may be tough but u never know.

Omarr Wilson said...

No Dought This Will be a Very Interesting Winter to Watch. And a Tricky one To Forecast Lol. The Models Will most Likely be Put to the "Model Limit".

Anonymous said...

its not gonna snow this year you are all out of your wacky minds. Snowbird bill keeps saying i told you so but we havnt seen nothing yet and wont. look how warm it is and the grass is still green and now we have omar saying the ground will be to warm for any acumulation.

I say this will be a winter without any snow as it will be to the north and all we get is rain. we might get teased by Ninja and Clipper an Todd but it wont happen. i was gonna enter the winter contest but was late. i would have entered 2 inches just for Harrison and tempertures would be 3945 its just going to be to warm no matter and now ninja is saying a storm dec 4-6 i dont see it and Omar is saying the models will be crazy Yes crazy with rain and storms

this is Hugh

Anonymous said...

Hugh = Ultimate Troll

Anonymous said...

Hugh, they know a lot more than you do. Your say doesn't matter to anyone.

Anonymous said...

Let's hope we see some flurries tonight or tomorrow in Central Arkansas.

Anonymous said...

Hi everyone this is the real Hugh. We have a imposter on this blog. I am actually not negative anymore. It was my way of using reverse psychology to get the snow to come here. Anyway snowbirdbob has some real talent, anyone who reads his posts knows that. Anyway i think we will see ice and snow this year for about the northern two thirds of arkansas. Maybe a storm to remember.

J.Betnar said...

A Winter WX Advisory for extreme E/NE Ark. NWS predicting 1-3"

JasonBHampton said...

Arkansas has now seen its first Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watchesnow for Northern Ms and some of Western Tn! My sweet spot for Arkansas is West Memphis- 2 inches? This is the beginning of things to come for December. Could we be dealing with another Winter Storm in the days to come? First Artic blast and Winter storm Dec 5-10.....yes please. Wishcaster-Jason