FOR THE TOP 10 WEATHER EVENTS OF 2011, CLICK ON IT IN THE NAVIGATION BAR ABOVE!
I'm going to take a break talking about the weather for this blog post. How many people can say they lost 10.75 pounds during the Holidays? I proudly can claim that! I have been working out at the gym for at least the last 4 years. I mostly do the circuit room along with some cardio. One day shortly before Thanksgiving, I was in the circuit room at Powerhouse gym and owner, Jeff Lawrence, approached me with a challenge. He said, let's tone you up and lose 10 pounds over the next month starting the Monday after Thanksgiving. I cautiously said yes knowing that I would have to give up all those Holiday goodies that are so tempting.
That Monday, I weighed in at 178.5 pounds. Jeff put me through a series of workouts that made me quickly realize I was not in the shape I thought I was in! Over time, your technique can become sloppy when working on some of the machines. He helped fine tune that along with my diet. I tried to eat 4-5 times a day. They were smaller, but smarter meals loaded with fish and chicken along with vegetables. Breakfast usually consisted of 2 eggs, Ezekiel Bread and Oatmeal. I would throw in a banana or an orange every now and then as well. I also increased my water intake tremendously.
Over the course of the past month, I went off my diet 3 times: The KATV Christmas party, Christmas Eve, and Christmas Day. So you can STILL lose weight and eat those "bad things" every now and then as long as you stick to the diet as much as possible and work out 4-6 times a week. Today (Friday) I weighed in at 167.75 pounds! Mission accomplished!
Am I done? Heck no! Sully has aired a couple "toning Todd" segments during his sportscast and I think he'll be out there again next week so watch his sports. I want to maintain and add a little more tone. Thanks to Jeff at Powerhouse, I feel better, my clothes fit better, and I have noticed I have more energy. You know you need that when you have a little one running around and another baby on the way any day now!
Jeff shot this video below with my phone. No pain, no gain right?
Several days ago I showed you how forecasting in the long term can give a meteorologist big head aches. The major long term models were in two different extreme camps. The European model showed the coldest air of the season plummeting south with snow flurries and showers. The American GFS model showed a weak and progressive trough bringing a glancing shot of cool air. I took the middle of the road approach and that seems to be paying off.
The cold air arriving New Years Day will be somewhat of a shock to the system. We've probably felt colder air already this season, but before the front gets here, highs will be well into the 60s to near 70. I think highs during the beginning of next week will stay in the 30s and 40s statewide. It's still very interesting to look at the GFS forecast highs for next Monday and Tuesday. They're still in the 50s!!!! That's an error!
That dose of cold air will exit, but a northwesterly flow aloft will prevent any major warm up. Shots of cool air will begin to arrive keeping temperatures in check.
Many of you, like me, want snow! I don't see any within the next 7-10 days. You know once the models begin to show it, you'll hear it from me first! LOL
I hope everyone had a very Merry Christmas. I sent out a tweet Sunday evening saying it was probably the best Christmas I have had since I was a kid. Seeing Blake's reaction to everything was very special. We had a huge family gathering with all his cousins (5) and it was out of control and fun at the same time.
As many of you know, Andria and I will be having our second boy any day now. While I thoroughly enjoyed Christmas, it wasn't easy for her. She's having a very difficult time moving around and laid down most of the day. She was able to be a spectator to all the action. Judging by all her symptoms, I would be shocked if that baby didn't come this week. But what do I know? I can only forecast the weather, not when someone gives birth. Daddy has many more responsibilities right now. I'm really seeing how much of a "mommas boy" Blake is right now. Nothing wrong with that. He's a great kid.
Now onto the weather. As I have said here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, an area of low pressure aloft will bring its own cold air and bring some snow to portions of Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. YOU DON'T NEED FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE FOR SNOW TO FALL! This is very important. This is a situation where the temperatures above our heads are cold. Snow will fall, especially across the higher elevations of northern Arkansas. While I don't expect much, I think some minor accumulations will be possible on grassy surfaces. At one time, I thought those places could see a few inches of snow, I'm less optimistic about that, but we'll see what happens.
Here in central Arkansas, I expect all rain. There is a small chance a few snow flakes could mix in with the rain before ending early Tuesday morning. It will be while your sleeping though and I don't expect anything significant at this time. Again, mainly all rain and wet roads.
There's another fight with the models in the long range forecast. The European and the Canadian models are carving out one BIG trough of low pressure across the central and eastern United States. This would bring a blast of cold air and possibly the coldest so far this season. But in the words of Lee Corso, "not so fast my friends." The American GFS, shows the trough, but is less amplified and is more progressive with it meaning it moves in and out faster. Which one is right or will there be something down the middle of the road? Only time will tell. As you know, the models this season have been horrible in the long range so I expect much to change with the forecast to open 2012, but it will be something to follow. You know I'll keep you updated here, on facebook: Todd Yakoubian, and twitter @katv_weather.
Check out the model maps below...
Our model "Futurecast" shows where the flakes may fly Monday night into Tuesday morning. I only expect small amounts in the higher elevations at this time. I'll keep you updated with any changes.
"Futurecast" rainfall amounts will be around an inch for central into southeast Arkansas. Lesser amounts can be expected across the west.
This is the European model valid next Sunday evening. It shows a front moving south of Arkansas. There's an area of high pressure across Montana into Wyoming. The black lines are isobars showing winds driving the front southward. This would bring a strong push of cold air from Canada all the way down into the deep south.
This is the Canadian showing the same thing, but the front is a bit slower. The surface high is still in Canada next Sunday evening and low pressure is located across the Great Lakes. The pressure difference is driving northerly winds into the state. Again, this results in a strong push of cold air into the deep south to open 2012
This is the American GFS with the low across the Great Lakes and the surface high over Oklahoma. This is a push of cool air, but nothing like the other two models above. The push of cool air is focused more to the northeast. Also, this solution means the cool air would come and go rapidly. Again, not much model agreement and much can change. I'll keep you updated!!!!!!
This will be brief. It's Christmas and there's still plenty to do with family today. Hope you have had a fantastic day! Merry Christmas.
For an in depth analysis of the situation Monday into Tuesday morning, I urge you to view the video in the blog post below.
With no arctic air in sight, just about the only way to get snow is with a strong, cold core low! And we've got one to deal with. Rain will fall Monday afternoon and evening across much of the state, but as we have been telling you here on the Arkansas Weather Blog over the past few days, once that upper low moves through the state, flakes will fly. Where and how much is the big question! Right now, I like the NAM showing northern Arkansas for a nice coating of snow, but I also like what our own Futurecast is showing us as well. I"ll explain in the graphics below.
Again, I expect the atmosphere to cool downward as the snow falls due to the cold upper low. This means, temperatures will likely be around freezing or a degree or two higher. The best chance for accumulations will be in the higher elevations where they can tap into the colder air. Also, if snowfall intensity is great enough, it could lead to accumulations even if the temp is 33 or 34. None of this is set in stone and can still change easily which is why I urge you to check back here, follow on facebook: Todd Yakoubian, and twitter @katv_weather
Futurecast doesn't show much, but what I like about it is the location of the snow. I think it will be possible to fall from Mena to Mountain Home. ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS! You might be asking about central Arkansas? Right now, accumulating snow does NOT look good. It IS possible for a few flakes to fly. This can always change and I'll keep you updated.
The NAM indicates the higher elevations of northern Arkansas could see 1-3'' of snow
The disturbance to our west will mainly produce rainfall for the beginning of next week and we'll have to watch Monday night into Tuesday morning for a few snowflakes, especially across the higher elevations of western and northern Arkansas. The video below explains.
The one thing I have learned about Arkansas weather is "never say never". Over the past week, the models have had a very difficult time handling a vigorous area of low pressure aloft over the western United States. Even at this point, there isn't much agreement between the models. For awhile, it looked like it would weaken and drift across Arkansas on Saturday. Now the system looks like it could affect the state Christmas Day into Monday.
When you look the United States, there's NO arctic air in place. So it's very difficult to get snow around here unless certain conditions develop. The system to our west can bring its own cold air and moisture if it's strong enough and produces enough lift in the atmosphere. Right now, most models just show chilly rain showers, but I'm watching it like a hawk. If the low tracks a bit faster and stays strong, it would not be out of the question to see a few snowflakes at some point late Christmas Day somewhere in Arkansas. THIS IS A LONG SHOT, but if it happened, it would truly be a Christmas miracle! Remember, the track must be perfect, the timing must be right, and the system would need to maintain its intensity. At this point, I would say the chance for all this happening is well less than 10% so our official forecast will only call for rain showers.
Check out the models below...
This is the 00Z run of the NAM showing the strong upper low over southwest Oklahoma at 6 PM Christmas Day. This would need to track faster and stay strong for any hope.
This is the 06Z NAM for the same time period (6PM Christmas). Notice how it's speeding it up a bit and has it in south central Oklahoma! We'll watch later model runs to see if we can get it to speed up faster and track a bit further south.
This is the 00Z GFS indicating the low near the Arklatex late Christmas Day. Better! But will it be cold enough? The only way is to get enough lift to cool the atmosphere near the upper low. It's a long shot!
The 06Z GFS slows it down a bit and stretches the low out some. Not good for snow lovers.
7PM Thursday Update... I will have a blog post about the weekend Friday. For you snow lovers out there, it's really not looking good. Sorry, maybe tomorrow that will change, but I doubt it.
My fellow bloggers, chili fans, and bean lovers, I want to take this opportunity to first wish you a Merry Christmas. It's my favorite time of the year. Will there be snow? Well, I'll blog about that later.
In my fight to explain that chili does not have beans, it now appears bean lovers everywhere outnumber the real chili fanatics out there. Even though the International Chili Society says there are NO beans in chili, I will concede you can have beans in it if you wish.
The official definition of the meal by the Merriam Webster dictionary says: "a thick sauce of meat and chilis"
You can call it chili, but it's really "Chili with beans" or just plain ole soup!
Here are the final numbers.
Should Chili Have Beans? Yes: 1080 (65%) No: 580 (34%)
By the way, there's another poll out there on facebook and I would love to have your vote. CLICK HERE
If you want to see the top 10 weather events of 2011, you can either find it in the post below or click on it in the navigation bar above.
10:20 AM Wednesday Update.... The morning run of the GFS and NAM is in now and they are still in disagreement. Both models slow the system down this weekend. The NAM only goes out to 84 hours, but at that time, it has more of a compact cold core low to our west. This COULD bring precipitation late Saturday into Sunday morning. The GFS has a different look with the wave of energy... opening it up and bringing rain showers to mainly southern Arkansas late Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. It's obvious all the models are having a difficult time pinning down the details. As I always say, don't get your hopes up. The main thing to remember is that at the very least, there's something to watch. I'll keep you updated here, facebook, and twitter. ____________________________________________________________________________
We have a round of rain coming in Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Then we'll watch the next disturbance for Friday night into Saturday morning. The models are not handling this system well. I'll admit, I'm "wish-casting" a bit here and only choosing the model I like which is the NAM. You must always be aware of these upper air features because they can easily out perform the models. A recent example was the 2'' of snow just a couple weeks ago. The models didn't show much of anything, but the upper air feature managed to bring its own cold air and moisture resulting in widespread snow. I'm NOT saying that's going to happen here, but it's worth watching. There's no arctic air on the playing field which is a big problem, but like I said, these lows bring their own cold air and can squeeze out some precipitation. It's just a matter of where this thing tracks and how strong it is. Regardless of what happens, temperatures will warm well above freezing Saturday and again Christmas Day so there is NO chance for a white Christmas. The time frame to watch is Friday night into Saturday morning. Check out the models below.
This is the 500mb chart from the 6Z NAM valid early Saturday morning. Do you see that big area of orange in eastern Oklahoma? That's the vigorous upper air feature I'm watching carefully.
The NAM is showing some precipitation across western Arkansas into eastern Oklahoma. The blue line to the north is the 32 degree line. So temperatures here could be slightly ABOVE freezing. Another problem if you want snow!
This is the NAM snowfall output from the 6Z run. It shows a dusting across portions of central into western Arkansas with maybe an inch in the higher elevations of Polk, Scott, and Logan counties. Remember, this is only 1 model and I'm wish-casting a bit here.
As I always say, there's nothing normal about Arkansas weather and this year was no exception. Extreme cold, extreme heat, drought and floods; it was another busy year covering everything Mother Nature threw at us. As always on the Arkansas Weather Blog, we count down the top 10 weather events of the year. Since this is published several days before the end of the year, there's always a chance the list can be amended.
Compiling this list would be impossible without the help from the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock. They keep all the official numbers on record there and their staff does a fantastic job of providing information.
Arkansas averages 33 tornadoes a year. This year we more than doubled that number with a total of 75. 2011 will go down as the 4th most active tornado year in modern history. 3rd is 78 in 1982, 2nd is 81 in 2008, and 1st is 107 tornadoes in 1999. Tornadoes killed 12 in our state and injured 97 in 2011.
10) NOVEMBER 28TH. NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SNOW
An early season snowstorm starts our top 10 list. Shortly after Thanksgiving, snow lovers in northeast Arkansas got a rare treat. We knew a few inches would be possible, but some places came in with a lot more as an area of low pressure aloft brought a good thumping of snow. There was even a report from the far northeastern corner of the state of 8''. That will put you in the Holiday spirit for sure.
ASU dorms from Shelby Tull
9) HIGH WINDS
At first, I was going to only mention the record wind gust at the Little Rock airport on August the 7th. A thunderstorm downburst produced a 77 mph gust which is the second highest ever recorded at Adams field. I talked to meteorologist John Robinson and he brought up an interesting point. There were several very high wind gusts recorded across the state this year mostly as a result of thunderstorms. 7 people died this year from high winds inside thunderstorms which is why whenever a warning is issued, it's best to seek shelter.
April 19th, Oil Trough... 95 mph
May 25th, Cades (Lincoln County)... 89 mph
July 30th, Northwest Arkansas Regional Airport... 82 mph
May 11th, Rogers... 79 mph
The 77 mph wind gust at the Little Rock airport on August 7th flipped this plane over. Photo courtesy of John Robinson with the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.
8) RECORD NOVEMBER RAIN
In a year which featured horrible drought conditions for portions of the state, the rain in November was welcomed, but quickly turned into too much at one time. According to the National Weather Service, a thirty day stretch ending Dec. 10th brought 10-20 inches of rain for western, central, and northeastern Arkansas. 25% of our yearly rainfall fell in November. Several new records were established including one on the 21st of November. Little Rock received 6.06'' which was the wettest day since 1988. It was the 2nd wettest November day ever and the 9th wettest day on record overall according to the National Weather Service. When all was said and done, it was the wettest November on record in Little Rock with 14.57''. This is absolutely remarkable considering only 3.44'' fell during the months of September and October combined. It just proves, if you don't like the weather in Arkansas, just wait. It will change, and change drastically.
KATV viewer, Jerry Johnston, sent in this picture of a dock floating down Lake Hamilton
Fellow weather geek, Lindsey, sent in this picture of flooding in Russellville.
7) September 25th. Tichnor hail.
A strong storm system with very unstable air produced hail over southeastern Arkansas. There was even a weak tornado which touched down near Tichnor as well. Hail sizes ranged from baseballs to grapefruits with widespread damage reported. We're lucky that Bucky Graham didn't get hurt as he was storm chasing in the area. His car was a different story. Watch this scary video!
He even captured a funnel through his broken windshield
If he had a dollar for every hailstone, he'd be very rich!
5 Live Dopplers shows the large hail moving into Tichnor on the 25th of Sept.
6) JANUARY 9TH "SNOW-MAGEDDON"
For snow lovers, this storm was a huge treat. For travelers along I-30, it was a huge headache. The computer models did a fantastic job days in advance showing a significant snow for the I-30 corridor eastward. The storm lived up to all expectations and then some. Our own Channel 7 storm chaser, WeatherNinja, drove down to Texarkana early that morning to follow the snow and stream it live on the blog as it marched into central Arkansas. The snow started falling in Little Rock around 2 PM that day and by the next morning, we had 5.7'' of snow. In North Little Rock, 4.1'' fell. The corridor of heaviest snow was right along I-30 and it amounted to 6-10'' in some places. Traffic along I-30 came to a standstill for several hours and the Arkansas National Guard had to be called out to assist stranded motorists.
KATV viewer having too much fun making a snow angel. Wonder how sick he was the next day?
Paul, The Weather Guru, and his wife proudly wearing their Arkansas Weather Blog shirt in the snow
Just one of many accidents along I-30 giving travelers big headaches.
5) MAY 24TH/25TH TORNADO OUTBREAK (DENNING TORNADO)
A rare EF4 tornado tracked 1.5 miles south of Branch to 1.8 miles east-southeast of Rosetta. This tornado tore a path of 45.71 miles. Four people were killed and 27 were injured. The fatalities occurred in the Etna and Bethlehem communities. There were also fatalities in Denning. All of them were in mobile homes. The outbreak of tornadoes cranked up once again the next afternoon, especially along the 67/167 corridor in northeast Arkansas. Large hail was a big problem across southeastern Arkansas on the afternoon of the 25th. When all was said and done, there were 6 tornadoes. 5 people were killed and 31 were injured.
The video belowis the Oil Trough tornado Below is damage video from Denning
A Channel 7 storm chaser catches this tornado on live TV during our coverage just south of Augusta.
4) APRIL 25TH TORNADO OUTBREAK (VILONIA)
There were 18 tornadoes across Arkansas on this deadly day. When all was said and done, we lost 5 of our fellow Arkansans and 59 were injured. The tornado which got the most attention was inVilonia. 4 died there with 20 injuries. But many other areas suffered major damage. An EF3 tracked from Garland into Saline counties. An infant was killed there with 20 others injured. That tornado tore a path of 16.78 miles. Another tornado tore through the Little Rock Air Force Base injuring 4. This was rated an EF2 with a track of 5.12 miles. An EF2 tornado hit just south of Hamilton in Garland county. 10 were injured as this twister tore a path of 14.44 miles. Another EF2 hit the Sunshine community in Garland county. 9 people were injured there.
Here's an email and video we received at Channel 7 shortly after the outbreak... "Just thanking everyone in the newsroom, especially Ned, Todd, and Barry for the excellent coverage with the weather this week. I live in Vilonia and the tornado just hooked to the NW of us a few hundred feet. I set my video camera in the upstairs window and got to the closet with the family."Vilonia Tornado from Scott Patrom on Vimeo.
Debris sucked up off the ground seen on doppler radar as the tornado moved across the Pulaski county line into Vilonia
3) EXTREME FEBRUARY 9TH/10TH SNOW AND COLD
Every year in Arkansas, you can count on some snow and cold weather, but what happened on February 9th and 10th was beyond a shadow of a doubt, extreme! Northwest Arkansas saw the worst of it when almost 2 feet of snow blanketed that portion of the state. With fresh snow cover on the ground and clear skies, the morning of the 10th was bitterly cold. Fayetteville dropped to a record breaking -18 degrees. That was only 11 degrees away from breaking the all time state low temperature. ( -29 near Gravette on February 13th, 1905 ).
A KATV viewer sent in this picture from Rogers.
Little Rock officially recorded 5.9'' and North Little Rock received 6.2''. On the morning of the 10th, Little Rock dropped to 10 degrees while North Little Rock bottomed out at 12 degrees.
2) LATE APRIL/EARLY MAY EXTREME FLOODING
Multiple rounds of heavy rain and severe weather in late April into early May brought record flooding to most of eastern Arkansas. The Black River and lower White River saw record crests which exceeded the huge floods of 2008 (another La Nina year). At one point, the White River in eastern Arkansas rose to a point which covered a portion of interstate 40. A long stretch of the interstate was closed for days and traffic had to be diverted causing long delays for travelers and truckers.
The video below is from Chopper 7 flying over a flooded and deserted I-40
Water covers a deserted portion of interstate 40. Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock.
KATV viewer shot this picture from a plane of Augusta, AR
Another KATV viewer picture of the flooding
1) HOTTEST DAY EVER IN LITTLE ROCK WEATHER HISTORY AND "ARKANSAUNA".
On August the 3rd, Little Rock redefined the word "hot". The previous record for the hottest day ever in Little Rock stood for 25 years when on July 31st, 1986, Little Rock hit 112 degrees. We not only broke that record, we shattered it when we hit 114 degrees at the official observation station at the Little Rock airport at 2:40 PM. Early that same morning, the low temperature only dropped to 85 degrees which is the warmest low temperature ever in Little Rock. This shattered the old record of 83 degrees set on July 29th, 1930 and July 12th, 1936. When you average this low and high, it equals 99.5 degrees which turns out to be the hottest daily average temperature ever in Little Rock. All this occurred in the midst of a 9 day stretch of consecutive 100 degree plus days. However, this was nothing compared to what Fort Smith experienced. Their heat was much worse than any other part of the state as they hit 100 degrees 49 times in 2011. In other words, 13% of the days this year, they hit the century mark. To make it worse, they hit 100 degrees for 35 consecutive days which is the most in city history. According to the Arkansas Department of Health, 17 people died from heat related illnesses this year.
I successfully fried an egg on the street during the extreme summer heat. It took awhile, but it eventually cooked
Thank you for reading the Arkansas Weather Blog and making it another fun and successful year. While we don't know what Mother Nature will throw at us in 2012, you can always count on the Arkansas Weather Blog to be there. We are your ticket to BIG weather events. Remember to always stay connected on twitter @katv_weather and on Facebook: Todd Yakoubian. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
At least the chance for a white Christmas isn't zero. In the video I explain what COULD happen for you snow lovers. Also, check out the interactive radar below!!!!
I have a feeling a few storm chasers will be streaming live video from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles into Kansas. Early Monday morning, I already saw one chaser near Amarillo. Just click on the care when they appear and watch!
The pattern this weeks looks a little active heading into Christmas. We are getting into the time range when confidence on the Christmas forecast is getting higher. Check out the video blog for details on the weather this week!
8:30 PM Friday Update... I will have a new blog post this weekend detailing the weather next week leading into Christmas. There's a lot on our weather plate as the pattern will be quite active!
It's no secret that I'm a weather geek. Some may say they are, but I think you'll find this as video evidence that I'm the ultimate. My love for the weather started when I was only 6 years old. I was immediately addicted to the Weather Channel when it first debuted in the early 1980s. We only had one TV in the house with cable and my obsession forced my parents into putting another cable outlet in my bedroom so I could watch it there.
When severe weather or winter weather affected the state, I would draw my own maps outlining areas affected and I would even write my own weather discussions. I guess in a way, I started blogging when I was about 8 years old. (see pictures below)
One Christmas, I received a "Mr. Microphone" from Santa Clause. The signal only reached about 100 feet, but that didn't stop me. My own radio station was born and I called it WWZZ. I don't know why though. I had some news and music, but weather was the focus.
For my 9th birthday, my parents arranged a tour of the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock. It was a surprise as I remember the drive across the river not knowing where we were going. I was in weather heaven when I figured it out. Meteorologist Nelson DeVilliar gave me the tour. He just recently retired from the office and I will forever be grateful to him and my parents for that day! My love for everything weather didn't stop there.
On a trip to Atlanta, Georgia, I got a tour of the weather channel. I even got to sit down with the late John Hope who was their hurricane expert. He showed me satellite images from the tropics and treated me like a friend that day. Again, I was in weather heaven.
I'll also never forget working in Chattanooga, TN several years ago. My wife and I were driving in downtown and I spotted Dr. Lyons who once worked at the Weather Channel as well. He took over as the hurricane expert when John Hope died. I pulled over to the side of the road, got out, and ran down the side walk shouting, "Dr. Lyons, Dr. Lyons." Out of breath, I didn't know quite what to say when he turned around.
This blog has been a passion and love of mine since I started it in 2006. I love working at Channel 7, but 3 minutes a weathercast just isn't enough for me and this blog allows my passion to have no time limit. I look forward to many more posts and years to come. Most of all, THANK YOU for even reading it and making it what it is today.
Below are some of my early weather maps from the early and mid 1980s. Enjoy and I hope you have a good laugh!
What an artist huh?
Check it out, a winter severe weather set up! Maybe a La Nina year? LOL
A November soaker!
Okay, I was only 10 years old when I drew this. My county outlines weren't the greatest
Video of the frozen Arkansas River in December of 1983 from the KATV archive.
Do you remember what happened 28 years ago? One of the worst arctic outbreaks gripped most of the United States including Arkansas. Whether you like or hate cold weather, this period in Arkansas weather history is fascinating to all.
What made this outbreak notable was the severity and the duration. For about 10 days, the temperature never rose above freezing allowing the Arkansas River to freeze over.
We also had a few bouts with winter weather. Snow and ice glazed the state providing Arkansans with a white Christmas.
I was only 9 years old and remember the icy weather quite well. To begin the outbreak, we had 2 or three inches of snow. A couple days later, a round of moderate to heavy freezing rain coated everything with a solid sheet of ice. I could stand on the snow/ice in my front yard and never break or crack the ice. (I also weighed much less than I do now).
Just a month prior to this historic arctic outbreak. Little Rock experienced a round of severe storms. Some of you may remember while the Arkansas vs. SMU game was being played at War Memorial Stadium, tornado warnings were issued for Pulaski county. My dads business was hit by a tornado/high winds and destroyed. I was home watching the game on TV and remember my dad finding a phone somehow and calling. He said, "we're ruined". Thankfully he had insurance and it turned out to be the best Christmas our family ever had. He didn't have to work while the business was rebuilt and we spent a lot of time together during the Holiday.
Thanks to the National Weather Service in North Little Rock for this data.
December 19th, 1983 surface map
December 24th, 1983 surface map
The first surface map above shows the initial push of arctic air on the 19th with strong high pressure located in Minnesota. East winds at the surface and some moisture produced snow with an official amount of .04'' recorded at Little Rock Adams Field (melted snow). On the 21st, temperatures managed to warm to 31 ahead of another surge of cold air. It didn't snow with this system, it was all freezing rain. 1.03'' glazed many portions of the state encasing Arkansans in an ice cube.
The next map on December 24th, 1983 indicates a surface high pressure of 1060 mb in Montana. As you can see with the isobars (lines of equal barometric pressure), the flow of air was out of the due north at the surface. The strong pressure gradient indicated on the map contributed to very breezy conditions. This bitter air mass kept temperatures in the single digits and teens Christmas Day. As a matter of fact, when the kids woke up to see what Santa Clause brought them, the temperature in Little Rock was 0 degrees. I guess the "weather outside was frightful."
Will we ever see anything like this again in our lifetime? Who knows. If you remember this event, please leave a few remarks in the comment section.
If you have any pictures you would like to share of this event, send them to photo@katv.com.
If you haven't had a chance to check out "Ninja's Corner", I highly suggest it. You can get to it by clicking on the navigation bar above. He posted some interesting statistics recently about yearly snowfall and it's completely worth following this through the end of 2011. If you take a look at annual snowfall (January through December), both Little Rock and North Little Rock are in record territory. What a year! We started it with huge amounts of snow in January and February, had a violent severe weather season, then had the hottest day EVER in Little Rock, and now we're capping it off with more snow. If you ever think for a moment that our weather will settle down, you're wrong. This is Arkansas!
In 2011 so far, Little Rock's annual snowfall is 16.2 inches which makes it the 6th snowiest on record. Records for Little Rock date back to the 1870s. Here are the years we could beat if we get more snow by December 31st.
In North Little Rock the annual snowfall so far is 17.9 inches. This makes it the 2nd snowiest year in recorded weather history which dates back to the 1970s.
1. 1979 (19.1'') 2. 2011 (17.9'')
We'll see what happens between now and the end of the year! Thanks for reading the Arkansas Weather Blog!
If you scroll down a couple blog posts, you will find one about the possibility of Mother Nature throwing a curveball at us. While I'm glad we saw this coming, the extend and timing was off. Basically, it was a completely BUSTED forecast!
The reason for this mornings winter wonderland is a direct result of a strong upper level area of low pressure. Most of the reliable models we use showed it quite well, but moisture was lacking with it. Therefore, the snow chances were really downplayed in the forecast. I have seen this time and time again in meteorology, these upper level features tend to outperform what the models say. They have the ability to squeeze out any available moisture as these systems have strong lift with them. There were a couple models which showed it, but we failed to completely buy into it. The NAM did a good job and at one time the GFS model showed this, but backed away during the days leading up to it.
You can clearly see the strong upper level low at 500 mb over the mid south. It's in the area of red and orange.
Anyway, I don't hear too many complaints since we love the snow, especially during Christmas time. I just wish the roads didn't get slick.
This is the world of weather! Forecasting never has been, isn't now, and will not be perfect. We can only do the best job possible and learn from our mistakes. I promise you this, next time I see one of these strong upper lows, I'm not going to shy away from talking about snow or rain!
Here's some great video from Brian Emfinger with www.realclearwx.com. The video was shot just northeast of Ozark at about 1600 feet in elevation
We told you to hold on tight last Saturday for another wild ride! I think this storm system has lived up to its expectations. The rain generally amounted from 3 to 6'' area wide and lasted for about a day and a half. The cold temperatures didn't make it feel any better. The one thing that I wish I hit harder on the forecast was the snow in northwest Arkansas this morning. Amounts were small in the lower elevations, but went up to about 3'' on some of the higher mountains in the Ozarks. While I thought there would be a wintry mix for the northwest, it was a bit further south than I anticipated and the amounts were higher than I thought. I don't hear many complaints. There's nothing like a good snow to put you in the Holiday spirit. The winter weather contest is in full swing and we should have some small amounts for Harrison when the official data is released later Monday.
The curveball I talked about in the post below for Wednesday is still there. An upper level low will move across the area Wednesday and should bring a few clouds. It's not out of the question to get a sprinkle, flurry, or a sleet pellet. The chance is very low though as the models are not showing much if any precipitation with it.
Back to the rainfall, amounts lately have been incredible and I thought it would be a good idea to put out a few interesting numbers.
In Little Rock since Saturday night, we have had 5.06''
In North Little Rock, the total is 4.86''
The rainfall surplus in Little Rock this year is 11.86''
In North Little Rock, the surplus this year is 13.92''
It's now the 4th wettest year in North Little Rock weather history which dates back to the 1970s.
Little Rock established a new daily rainfall record Monday with 2.06'' shattering the old record of 1.92'' set in 1936 (75 years)
Little Rock established a new daily rainfall record Sunday with 3.00'' of rain shattering the old record of 1.54'' set in 2002
34% of our yearly rainfall in Little Rock has fallen in November and the first 5 days of December.
28% of North Little Rock's rainfall this year has fallen in November and the first 5 days of December.
THANKS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NORTH LITTLE ROCK FOR THE DATA.
Here are a few pictures sent in from viewers of the weather across Arkansas over the past couple days. Remember, you can always send yours to photo@katv.com
FOR THE TOP 10 WEATHER EVENTS OF 2011, CLICK ON IT IN THE NAVIGATION BAR ABOVE!
