SCROLL DOWN FOR DETAILS ON THE 2012-2013 WINTER WEATHER CONTEST AND GET YOUR ENTRIES IN BEFORE THE DEADLINE TO WIN A FREE IPAD.
Think this weather is boring? Hold on tight! The pattern is just about to undergo major amplification which will lead to a very unsettled weather pattern starting next week. It's really nothing unusual, but considering last winter was so mild and the weather this fall has been fairly tranquil, this pattern change will get your attention.
As I write this, it's 74 degrees in Little Rock and the record high today is 79 set in 1990. There's a very good chance we'll have a major swing in the other direction next week.
Also, keep this in mind... the lowest temperature last winter in Little Rock was 20 degrees on the morning of February 12th. I'm NOT saying that's in the forecast right now, but it's something to watch. Remember, I don't trust the details on long range models, but I do see a pattern developing which has real potential to deliver arctic air into the country, even Arkansas.
Many want to know what the chances for winter weather will be. Right now, it's absolutely impossible to say that's even remotely possible. However, meteorological winter begins December 1st and it's not unusual for something like that to happen. Wouldn't that be a shock and extreme compared to what we're experiencing right now.
First thing, I fully expect this unseasonably mild weather to end late Thursday night into Friday morning with a strong front. This will bring temperatures back to reality Friday and into the weekend. Then there's more down the road. Here are a few of the charts I'm looking at and why I'm getting pumped up about the colder pattern.
If you're new to the weather blog, welcome. I'm a HUGE winter weather lover and you're going to want to keep checking back for in depth weather analysis all winter long. It's going to be fun!
|This is the GFS valid next Tuesday morning. It shows the low pressure area just east of Arkansas and the front already through the state with colder air oozing into the state.|
So there you have it. Right now, I think it's safe to say the front Thursday night and Friday morning brings us back to reality. Another cold front moves through in the Monday to Tuesday time frame. After that, questions remain such as: how long will the cold air stay in place, does it quickly move off to the east, are there any waves of moisture further down the road. Those questions can never be answered until we get closer to that time range.