3:10 PM... Video update showing 3 different computer models for next week. Enjoy.
As we thought, high thunderstorm winds were the main threat last night, but it appears a brief tornado did touch down just southwest of Sheridan. As I write this, a rating has not been assigned to it by the National Weather Service. The winds behind the front have been absolutely incredible gusting to 40-50 mph across most of Arkansas with almost 40 thousand without power as of 10AM Thursday morning. Think this pattern is active and wild now? It looks to continue.
The models have a little better agreement, but not much run to run consistency. While the forecast confidence is still on the low end, the good news is that the severe weather threat Christmas day is looking very low. That of course can change depending on the track of the low. The 12Z run of the GFS and the 00Z run of the European model both shows the upper level system moving over Arkansas late Christmas day into Wednesday morning. This would change the rain to snow depending on surface temperatures. I urge caution here because the 6Z GFS had NO precipitation whatsoever across the state, but the next run changed. That's why this forecast is still low confidence. This still has plenty of potential to change.
Here are the model maps I want to show.
I will not go out on a limb right now and say either of these solutions will verify until there's greater run to run consistency, but as you can clearly see here, there is hope for snow. This isn't a done deal by any stretch of the imagination, but let's keep hope alive!!!!!!!!!!