An update now on the Thursday situation. You can read more about that below from the mornings post and especially yesterday's post. You should watch the video as that really explains what could happen. In the model world, it's the NAM vs. the rest of the world. The NAM has an absolutely terrible track record this winter, but at some point, it's going to be right. However, I don't think that's the case here. The only way I'll buy into the NAM scenario is if the GFS or Euro comes around to that solution and that's just not happening. What COULD happen is a comprise between the data and some wintry precip develops, not as heavy, and focused again towards the south. That's just me thinking out loud. Look at the NAM snowfall accumulation below....
|12Z North American Model (NAM)|
Fast forward to next week. It's looking more likely another big chunk of very cold arctic air will take a nose into the United States. I got a tweet from someone saying highs could be in the single digits. I never say never to Arkansas weather, but that seems highly unlikely. Let's consider this, Little Rock has NOT had a single digit temperature since early February of 1996! That's 17 years ago! We got down to 10 degrees one night in February of 2011 and in December of 2004 if memory serves me correctly. Those were LOW temperatures and NOT high temperatures. Outlying areas away from Little Rock have been in the single digits though, but we go by the official numbers at the Little Rock airport. I have always said there are 4 things needed to get the official number in Little Rock into the single digits: arctic high pressure, clear skies, no winds, and snow cover.
Let's look down the road at the beginning of next week.
|The Euro Tuesday morning of the 22nd shows the 32 degree line across southern Arkansas. We have cold air in place, but it's nothing too unusual.What is noticeable here is the -20 to -25 degree air over the Dakota's. BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR|
Where do I begin? As I blogged last week, there's sooooooo much on the table for the last half of January it's going to be a challenge to keep up with it all. First of all, let's step back and take notice on how different this winter is compared to the last winter!
The next two weeks will present more challenges, up and down temperatures, and even more chances for precipitation. I'm going straight to the model maps for you this morning. You might want to also check out Sunday's blog post for more very in depth information, especially the video.
|The new GFS is in good agreement with the above scenario which has me alarmed this could turn out to be nothing for us. But as described in the video in the previous post, I'm not writing it off yet!|