Tuesday, January 15, 2013
All Aboard The Arctic Express
6:40 PM Tuesday update... Well that was interesting today huh? It just shows you the worry I have had. It only takes very little wintry precipitation to cause BIG problems. Little Rock had .3'' and North Little Rock had .4'' which broke a daily snowfall record for NLR. Once Hot Springs reports Wednesday morning, I'll update the winter weather contest for all of you waiting on that. I'm still watching the Thursday system. Even though the models look harmless, whenever you have something that strong come through, you watch it! Moisture return is limited and looks mainly east of us. We'll see. Also, the models continue to show a minor late week warm up, then the arctic express makes another visit to Arkansas Sunday into Monday. Also, I can't thank you all enough. Today we surpassed 2 MILLION blog hits over the past 2.5 years. I'm so glad you share my weather passion! Words can't describe how much it means to me you come here and read this! THANKS!
More later. Have a good evening!
You know I'm suppose to be on vacation right now, but I just can't stay away from this stuff sometimes. I absolutely love forecasting winter weather, especially when you can get multiple events within a short period of time. I guess the challenge is what drives me. Anyway, southeast Arkansas as expected you're getting it again today. As is usually the case, you deal with ice and not snow many times and today will be no exception to that rule. With temperatures hovering around 30-32 degrees all day, amounts could exceed a quarter of an inch. This would cause some power outages and some road issues as well, especially on the bridges and overpasses. In my opinion, I don't think this will be to the extent of the Christmas storm in central Arkansas. That was really incredible with ice, heavy snow, and wind. So while I would expect some power to go out, I don't think we're looking at a situation like that... I HOPE!
For central Arkansas, we will be on the fringe of this and I think we could see a few snow flakes and some sleet.
Now onto the Thursday system.... Once again, I urge you to watch the video I posted a couple days ago. You'll have to scroll down further for that. The NAM was generating incredible snowfall amounts and I did NOT buy it. All the other computer model schemes indicated a strongly positively tilted trough while the NAM was either neutral or negative with its various runs. A positively tilted trough has its axis running from northeast to southwest. This does not allow for moisture return and shunts most of it off well east... simply put. The negative tilt does increase moisture flow for a significant storm. With all that said, I'm still not writing this off! These closed lows can still produce surprises and I'm going to keep watching it! Right now, I think it's southern Arkansas which could see a few flakes of snow from it Thursday. I'll keep you posted.
After that system, we'll get a lull where temperatures will actually moderate a little, BUT DON'T LET THAT FOOL YOU!!!!! Another big chunk of arctic air will arrive early next week and it has the potential to be the coldest so far this season. There are signs the area of cold high pressure will move in and out with yet another surge further down the road. I'm getting tired now.... onto the maps.
Posted by Todd Yakoubian on Tuesday, January 15, 2013