Thursday, January 03, 2013

More Cold On The Way Later This Month?

If you heard me on the air a could of days ago, I talked about a stratospheric warming event underway across the polar regions.  I will admit that I have not studied this phenomenon carefully over the years, but some long range forecasters have done extensive research on it.  There is a lag time between when it starts and the delivery of cold, arctic air into the United States.  It appears that such an event is underway, however, where will the cold air go and how does it progress?

Don't get alarmed by this whatsoever.  This has been going on forever, it's just that we can now recognize this event and its effects on the weather around the northern hemisphere.

I have found a blog post by another meteorologist who really studies this stuff and you can read it by clicking on the link below.  While I don't trust details, it does appear many of the long range computer models show arctic air getting back into the United States after January 10th.  How cold and where is it directed is still a question.

Again, don't be alarmed... It's January and we're suppose to get cold.  Let's just see how it plays out..

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/01/multiple-stratospheric-warmings-confirm.html

6 comments:

Daniel McGowan said...

I read this on snowbird Bob's twitter link. It is interesting. From what I understood it is kinda like when a lake turns in the fall right?

Gusty Gal said...

In December of 1989, I remember a very cold week! The temperatures did not get out of the single digits, as I remember it, for several days around Christmas. Pipes burst all over town and it was a mess. I never see December '89 referenced as a cold period and I'm wondering if I've made it colder in my mind than it actually was. Anybody else remember the "jailbreak Arctic air" that winter?? I wonder if it could have been caused by sn event like the one that is taking place now?

Jason H said...

My December Outlook was perfect, or I wouldnt be doing a January. Here ya go....and remember it is just for fun, or is it ;)

Jan 5-9 Very calm with temps around avg and very little if any precip.

Jan 10-17 Very active time with above avg temps & Severe weather chance on 10/11 followed by a "cool" shot and a chance of light winter weather. Another chance of heavy rain toward the 16th/17th.

Jan 18-24 Slightly below avg temps and very little precip

Jan 25-31 My 2nd Winter Storm comes in this time frame. Shallow COLD air comes in around the 25-27 with a strong storm system coming out of Texas....Ya know what that means: Ice. Temps end the month 10-20 below avg.

jimmylee42 said...

Gusty Gal-I have some info on that winter you talked about. This info comes from the NWS with NLR stats. Back then they were publishing NLR as the official readings. Winter of 89-90 had .3 inches of snow,all in December. Record cold temps all in Dec. Arctic outbreak started 12/15/89. Highs and lows starting on that day 28&12,22&6,27&16,28&16,34&26,33&14,28&7,14&0,18&-2,29&8 on 12/24. The month overall ended in the top 10 coldest of all time, but after that arctic outbreak winter was generally mild.

Will said...

Well as the only person that actually predicted the Christmas day snow on this very blog some 10 days beforehand it's time to step out on that limb once again.....

Here goes -- There are definite signs of what is referred to as a McFarland Signature like event, (Stratosphere Warming) in our 10 - 12 day forecast. This means some exceptionally cold air coming our way. Easily some of the coldest air we have seen in quite some time. I do believe that we will have another significant weather event but what usually happens with severe cold is an icing event and not another good snow. Only time will tell...... :)

Gusty Gal said...

Thanks, Jimmie Lee! Great info and I appreciate you! It was definitely a cold December in 1989! Looking forward to some more wintery air later this month!