Friday, April 12, 2013

Spring Gets Ready To Throw Punch Number 2

We warned you a week in advance about last Wednesday's system and now it looks like we need to keep an eye on another one next week as well.  As usual, the details with this can't be pinned down this far out, but it's safe to say an environment favorable for thunderstorm development will exist.  What will be the dangers, exactly where, and at what time can't be forecast this far out, but it's never too early to communicate the potential like with the last system.

In regards to Botkinburg, the warning lead time for that was incredible.  Great job by the National Weather Service for issuing those warning and local media for getting the word out too.  It's all about saving lives and property.

This is a quick post today and I will use maps from the Weather Prediction Center because I think you'll understand them a bit better than all the model data I throw on here sometimes.  I WILL have some model data below as well though.

On another note, today is my 10 year wedding anniversary.  With each day that goes by I know getting married to Andria was the best thing I ever did.  She is an incredible wife and VERY loving mom.  I can't believe how lucky I am to have her in my life.  She understands me and the chaotic things that can go on with my job... working weird and long hours sometimes and she supports me every step of the way.   For example, when I had to wake up at 1:30 AM the day after Christmas and hike a mile in the deep snow and wind to get to my ride into work, she was at the door with a bag of food for me on my way out.  I didn't even ask her for it.  She takes care of me for sure!  That's just one of many examples and I could go on and on.  I just hope the next 10,20,30 years etc are just as good for her.

Back to the weather....

Tuesday AM you can see a front has stalled just north of the state.  It won't get a push in here until some upper level energy out west can develop a surface low along that front and it send away.  See that low in SW OK and the dryline?  Watch for severe weather out there.
By Wednesday morning, the low is really taking shape over the Red River Valley of TX and OK.  The air mass ahead of it over the mid south is becoming warm, moist, and unstable.
And by Thursday morning the surface low really develops and rockets into the Great Lakes with the cold front pushing through Arkansas.  So the time to watch appears to be late Wednesday.  The later this comes in (Wed. Night) the better.  While instability levels could drop some, nighttime severe weather is still very possible.
By late Wednesday, the GFS develops ample amounts of instability.  These levels you see here are very adequate for severe weather and are more than likely underestimated.  This is what really concerns me.
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined the areas they intend to keep an eye on for severe weather.  The purple D5 means "Day 5" which is Tuesday.  D6 is Day 6 which is Wednesday.

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