Here we go again. I have hesitated to post an update for a number of reasons, but mainly due to some uncertainties. The picture is becoming more clear today. Remember, no matter how much data you look at, the weather is going to do what it wants to do. Sometimes we rely way too much on data instead of just stepping back from the situation and asking ourselves, "what usually happens with a system like this."
Our own Channel 7 Storm Chaser, WeatherNinja, is out in the plains chasing today and you can watch his live stream here. It will be down at times due to limited cell coverage. If things get going around here Thursday, he'll be chasing in Arkansas.
REBROADCAST OF ANY OF THESE LIVE CHASE FEEDS IS STRICTLY FORBIDDEN.
I think this is going to be a line of storms with embedded cells. Those cells along with anything that forms in front of the main line will have a chance to produce isolated tornadoes. While that's possible, the threat for damaging winds and hail will be higher. Here's a look at the exact timing and threats involved.
|This is 1PM Thursday. The line of storms is edging into central Arkansas. At this point, they will begin to intensify as it taps into increasingly unstable air.|
|By 7PM, the storms are located on the Mississippi River and the threat for severe weather will be decreasing at this time for much of the Channel 7 viewing area... again, according to this one piece of model data.|
|The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Arkansas in a "Slight Risk" for severe weather Thursday.|
|That risk for all modes of severe weather is highest across the red shaded area. This is where the atmosphere will have the chance to destabilize and shear will be highest.|
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING LOOK CHILLY. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FROST/FREEZING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. STAY TUNED.