I'm Amped Up Over Some Amplification

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Very sorry for not updating lately.  As the seasons change and the pattern becomes more active, the blog will be buzzing for sure.

I'm really getting excited over the evolving pattern going into the last half of October.  Frost on the pumpkin?  There's a good chance that will happen.  The average day for the first frost in Little Rock is November 3rd.  I think it could happen soon.  The average date for the first freeze in Little Rock is November 14th.  That may be a stretch this month, but we'll see.  The GFS is going bonkers in the very long range, but it's very typical for it to do that.  I still don't understand why that model goes out 16 days and is run 4 times a day.  It comes up with 4 different solutions and usually none of them even verify.  Oh well, that's another story for another day.

We're going to watch for two waves of low pressure over the next week.  The first one shoots way north today and Saturday.  A cold front will slowly ease into the state Saturday with a few scattered showers.  Probably nothing too major.  The front will try to drift back to the north as a warm front Sunday into Monday with slight rain chances, but they could be higher over far western Arkansas.  The main show is Tuesday into Wednesday with a round of rain and possible strong storms.  This will be followed by a BIG blast of cool air.  This is the type of chill that will make your heater click on at night, if it hasn't already.  There are signs more rounds of cool air will dive south out of Canada beyond that, but we'll wait and see.

The GFS at 500mb valid late next Wednesday.  This is indicating a large trough of low pressure settling in across the central US.  There's a wave of energy over Wisconsin.  That will help push a front through the state at the surface.  There's more energy upstream coming out of Canada and that could result in reinforcing shots of cool air.  IF this verifies, we're talking about highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s across the state.

At the surface during the same time period you can see the low over southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois.  The front is stretched across AR into TX.  The green blobs indicate accumulated rainfall over the previous 6 hours and some of it could be heavy. 

Like I said above, the GFS in the long range could be in "lala land" as it usually is, but this is fun to look at.  This map is courtesy of weatherbell.com.  Look at these low temperatures Friday October 25th, 20s north and 30s elsewhere.  While I doubt this verifies, it does signal the chill is coming and probably will stick around awhile.

This idea is supported by NOAA's 8-14 day outlook.  The blue area shows a good chance for below average temperatures.  Also, look at Alaska.  When temperatures begin to warm up there, look out!  That cold air is going somewhere and it looks like the highly amplified pattern with the eastern Pacific ridge will send it south!  Stay tuned.