Yes, you read that correctly. I don't think I have ever blogged about severe weather in November and a Christmas forecast in the same post. There's always a first time for everything I guess.
Let's start with the most important issue, the severe potential. Is this unusual? Absolutely not. We are in the heart of our secondary severe weather season. I discussed yesterday on the blog about the potential this weekend. With a latest information I have analyzed today (Wednesday), I think the potential has increased some. The timing of this is still very much in question as there are some disagreements. We want this to develop at night, when less instability exists. However, there's some potential for all this to happen with readings well into the 70s and plentiful moisture from the Gulf of Mexico... NOT GOOD. It's only Wednesday and we're discussing something on the table for next Sunday and Sunday night so there's bound to be changes. Oh, that Christmas thing, I'll have more about that at the bottom of this post. Once again, I will use maps generated by weatherbell.com. Great site!
|Here's the GFS temperature forecast at noon Sunday. Well into the 60s and 70s.|
|And here's the warmth at 6PM. You can already see the affects of the next batch of cold air pushing in behind the front. It's getting colder in OK and KS.|
|The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted almost all of Arkansas for the potential for severe weather. This is not a "risk" area, but it's an area of concern.|