Active Start To 2014... That's An Understatement

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5 PM Tuesday Update... I just want to clear something up with the post below.  No matter what model you look it, it's going to be cold next week.  There are no guarantees in weather until after it happens, but the confidence level is quite high.  I just thought it was interesting how the European model keeps plunging temperatures the way it does whenever it sees snowpack.  The last time it tried to do this, Dec. 5th and 6th, it was wrong.  If the snow does fall, ! IF !, then we'll see if it hits it this time.  But for right now, it does look like some of the coldest air of the winter thus far is on the table for next week.  We'll see and I'll keep you updated.

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1:30 PM Tuesday Update...  I just wanted to show you something interesting I have noticed lately with the European model.  This is NOT a forecast, but I just want to show you the latest version of it to illustrate a point.  

On the left (graphic below), you will see the forecast snowfall late this weekend.  It has shifted the track of the surface low further north and thus the accumulating snow up there too.  Notice the temperatures on the right valid next Monday morning.  You can clearly see the white into southwest Missouri into northern Arkansas.  These are temperatures below zero!  Yesterday, the Euro had the snow further southeast along with below zero temperatures.  It indicated readings next week below zero across eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi where there was a heavy snowpack.  Since that is no longer there on the current model run, the temperatures are not even close to zero.  It's much warmer.

So what are you saying Todd?  A lot actually.  Yes, when there is snow on the ground, under the right conditions, it will be colder than areas without snow.  But the European model lately takes this to the extreme in my opinion.  I brought up an example back in February of 2010 where it was extreme in northwest Arkansas and Oklahoma.  Readings dropped to all time record lows with deep snowpack, BUT that was due to the perfect conditions setting up... NO wind, clear skies, and deep snow.  It doesn't always happen like that in reality.  Clouds and wind can keep temperatures from really dropping off sometimes.  While it is true the snow will make it colder than places without snow, it's not always extreme.  Hope I'm making some sense?  In my opinion, the Euro sees the snow cover, but over estimates the cooling due to it.  This is something I have noticed over the past month or so with this model.  

Now, in regards to the snow.  Will it be north or south (the swath).  It's impossible to know the track of the low this far out so I would expect variations with each model run until we get closer.  Sorry, that's just the reality of forecasting.

This is the morning run of the Euro on Dec. 31st.  See what it's doing with the temperatures under the snowpack in north AR and southern MO?

The is the Euro from Monday morning.  The swatch of snow is much further south (left).  The temperatures on the right indicates below zero temperatures where that deep snowpack is located.  That's in the white and green areas.  So again, I'm not making a forecast here, just showing you what I have a problem with when it comes to the Euro.  Thanks and Happy New Year.

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Every morning I make coffee, sit down, and study the latest data.  During this morning's regular routine, I couldn't help but think, where do I start?  There's a ton to look at, analyze, and compare.  This is the time of year that brings out the weather geek in me. Well, that's all the time, but it's really amplified in the winter.

As I stated yesterday, the Euro is extreme!  It's still bringing in below zero temperatures into Arkansas next week.  At this point, I'm still not buying it.  It has advertised this a couple of times over the past month and it never verified.  The American GFS model is cold, but not like the Euro.  I'm not sure about this, but a friend of mine told me the Euro physics were tweaked a little and it's doing this over North America.  It's way too cold, especially in areas where it sees snow on the ground.  I have noticed that.  So as much as I love cold weather, I'm not going to "wishcast" and use the Euro until I'm more confident in its solution.  Could it end up being correct? Yes.  I'll take you back to February of 2010 when almost 2 feet of snow piled up in northwest Arkansas.  We had about 7 inches here in the metro.  The skies cleared up that night over Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and the winds went calm.  It was the perfect set up for maximum radiational cooling.  The lowest temperature you could possibly have was realized because any warmth at the surface was able to escape.  That night, Oklahoma recorded its lowest state temperature EVER and portions of northwest Arkansas got close to 20 degrees BELOW zero.  I'M NOT SAYING THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN HERE NEXT WEEK, but it seems like the Euro is seeing this on a constant basis where it sees snow/ice on the ground.  So my bottom line, I'm NOT COMPLETELY IGNORING IT.   I would not put much faith in it at this time until I see other models trending in that direction.  I'll of course keep you updated on that.

Now let's talk about the rounds of precipitation we might deal with on Thursday and again early next week.  A new arctic front will arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.  Rain can be expected with a change over to some wintry weather Thursday morning.  There's another chance on Sunday.  The Euro is stronger with a surface low along another arctic boundary Sunday and produces more snow compared to the GFS.  I'll explain all of it below with maps.  I should make it clear, I'm comparing the 00Z run of the Euro with the 06Z run of the GFS with maps below.

Before I get to that.  I hope you have a happy and safe New Years.  Thanks for sharing in my passion for the weather here on the blog.  We're ending December with the biggest month ever here.  It shattered the previous record.  THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!

The top is the GFS and bottom is the Euro valid Thursday morning.  The blue dashed lines is usually close to the rain/snow line.  That's very dependent on surface temperatures too.  The blobs indicate the precip. amounts over the PREVIOUS 6 hours.  While the GFS is stronger with surface low development in the northern Gulf (black circle with "1012"), both are in good agreement the rain may change to a wintry mix as cold air comes in on the back side.  This could bring accumulating snow (not anything huge) to northern Arkansas.

The GFS top and the Euro bottom.  Both are in good agreement Thursday morning with northern Arkansas seeing some light accumulations.  However, the GFS does show a LITTLE across central sections.

This is where we see some disagreement.  This is Sunday afternoon.  The top is the GFS and the bottom is the Euro.  Both show another arctic boundary coming in, but the Euro is more enthusiastic with a surface wave along the boundary.  See that black, closed line labeled 1012?  It's deeper with the upper trough and brings in more moisture within the cold sector.  If the Euro is right, it would bring accumulating snows to much of Arkansas.  The GFS on the other hand, not so much.

The GFS top and the Euro bottom.  This is valid Sunday afternoon.  BIG DIFFERENCE.  Remember, the Euro really gets that surface low cranking and dumps a statewide snow.  The GFS wants nothing to do with that.  So we have problems here in the long range which is very typical.  Many times, neither is correct and it's somewhere in between.  Like I said, there is SO much to look at with our weather and this post doesn't even hit on the very cold air associated with yet another arctic boundary following Sunday's.  WE MIGHT NEED TO BREAK OUT THAT SCHOOL:CON INDEX.... MIGHT.   STAY TUNED.

Top Weather Stories of 2013

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

It was another crazy year in Arkansas Weather.  It would be unusual if it wasn't.  There are several events that stand out as the biggest of 2013.  First, there were many who were either killed or injured because our violent weather.  Our goal each year is to reduce this as much as possible with the best advance warning.  The top 7 weather events of 2013 follows.

2013

7. DECEMBER 20TH-21ST SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING

Severe weather and flooding during the winter months isn't unusual in Arkansas.  Around 5-8 inches of rain fell throughout much of central Arkansas and 3 tornadoes were reported: Redfield, northern Chicot/southern Desha counties, and Hughes.  One woman was killed in Hughes and 3 were injured.

Tornado damage in Haley, AR located in southern Desha county.  Picture courtesy of the National Weather Service office

Flood waters in southeast Arkansas.  Picture courtesy of the National Weather Service office

6. DECEMBER 5TH AND 6TH SNOW/ICE STORM

We got off to a quick start with winter weather in December as almost a foot of snow fell across far northern Arkansas.  Freezing rain fell across portions of the Arkansas River Valley and west central Arkansas.  Pope county was the hardest hit with several thousand without electricity.  A few inches of sleet piled up across central and northeast Arkansas.  The kids were able to get 2 days off from school in many locations.

A thick glaze of ice atop Mount Nebo.

More incredible ice formations on Mount Nebo

Sleet piled up in many locations with 1-2 inches common.

5.   SPRING BREAK SNOW IN MARCH

Some escaped and headed for the beach. If you didn't, you got to play in an early spring season snowstorm across northern Arkansas.  As much as 8 inches fell in Salem.  We thought surely this would be the last snow of the season.  Boy, was that idea wrong.

8'' of heavy, wet snow in Salem.

Accumulating snow made it as far south as Guy, Arkansas

Snow on the spring daffodils

Total snowfall

4. BOTKINBURG TORNADO ON APRIL 10TH

The Botkinburg community in northern Arkansas was devastated by an EF-2 tornado.  with the Foursquare Church taking a direct hit.  4 other tornadoes were reported that day along with several injuries.

Still shot of the EF-2 tornado

 3.   MAY 31ST FLOODING (SCOTT COUNTY)

From the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock,

"Perhaps the biggest headliner was the rain. Two to more than five inches of rain fell from Mena (Polk County) to Hot Springs (Garland County), Little Rock (Pulaski County) and Newport (Jackson County) in the twenty four hour period ending at 700 am CDT on the 31st. Amounts included 7.78 inches at Parks (Scott County), 7.55 inches at Big Fork (Polk County), 6.33 inches at Blakely Mountain Dam (Garland County), 6.25 inches at Lake Poinsett State Park (Poinsett County) and 6.13 inches at Oden (Montgomery County).
Little Rock (Pulaski County) Adams Field received 3.09 inches between 817 pm CDT and 917 pm CDT on the 30th. This broke the all-time one hour rainfall record at the site."

" Unfortunately, raging water claimed five lives close to Y City (Scott County). This included the county sheriff and a wildlife officer who were performing a rescue on the Fourche LaFave River. Closeby, an apparent drowning victim was found in her car. At Little Rock (Pulaski County), a body was discovered in Coleman Creek after water levels dropped."

Brushy Creek.  Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock.

2.  MAY 30TH TORNADO OUTBREAK.

14 tornadoes were reported this day across southwestern and central Arkansas.  There were 11 injuries that day caused by the storms and 1 man died in Tull located in Grant county.  A tree fell on his truck while driving northbound on his way to work.

This amazing home video captured a tornado going over Lake Ouachita.

This tornado hit Oden in Montgomery county.

1.  MAY 3RD SNOW AND RECORD COLD SPRING

The latest snow ever recorded in Arkansas weather history fell on May 3rd across Washington, Carroll, Madison, and Benton counties.  As many had their sights set on summer vacation just a few weeks away, 1-4 inches of heavy, wet snow fell.  The spring of 2013 set all kinds of cold weather records across the state.  While it didn't snow in central Arkansas, our high temperature on May 3rd only made it to 53 degrees with a low of 38 degrees.  That was more than 20 degrees below the average.  With more than 100 years of recorded weather history, this surely was a remarkable event and it's very unlikely we'll ever see May snow fall again in Arkansas in our lifetime.

This pretty much sums up what everyone was thinking on the morning of May 3rd in northwest Arkansas.

This is what you would expect in January or February, NOT MAY!

Siloam Springs on May 3rd.

Springdale on May 3rd.

Will We Have To Use The SCHOOL:CON Index Again?

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

2PM Monday Update... There's a ton of chatter out there about the extreme solution of the morning European.  I'm not buying into it at this point.  We must remember, these are just computers trying to predict a very complex atmosphere.  Let's talk about its track record. Yes, it does better than the American GFS, BUT it has also predicted some EXTREME cold this past late fall and winter that NEVER verified.  I remember its prediction of well below zero temperatures following the December 5th/6th ice event.  It also predicted extreme cold around Christmas time.  How did those forecasts work out?

With that said, it is really amazing when you look at how extreme it is.  The GFS is cold, but nothing like the Euro.  It basically takes the polar vortex and sends it into the northern United States and blasts us with extremely cold, record breaking temperatures.  Again, I'm not buying into that solution at this time. HOWEVER, SINCE THIS GUIDANCE DOES INDEED SHOW IT, I'M NOT GOING TO IGNORE IT COMPLETELY.  Sound wishy washy?  Maybe.  Anyone who tells you they KNOW what will happen next week isn't telling you the truth.  I have seen people get burned time and time again with statements they can't get out of.  I'll go on the record now saying it's going to be a cold week ahead (next week), but how extreme is still up for debate.  Thanks for listening to my little rant.  With all that said, I'll show you what it has next week.

Next Tuesday AM.... Unlikely to verify, but it shows well below zero temps over eastern AR into MS with single digits and teens elsewhere with plenty of snow on the ground.

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Our weather pattern is definitely getting active again with two opportunities for frozen precipitation.  You probably get tired of me saying this, but long range forecasting can become quite tricky so keep checking back.

It seems like the operational long range models keep pointing towards snow and cold in the long range only for it to rarely verify so we must keep that in mind.  

It appears we're going to have a temperature roller coaster over the next week, but the cold air will ultimately win.  After today's (Monday) cold, we'll warm up Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then another very strong cold front will sweep across the state introducing more very cold air.  There might be a little rain with this and that could change to some frozen precipitation before ending Thursday.  Then temperatures will moderate once again going into the weekend, then yet another system arrives!   The models paint a stronger push of cold air and more moisture.  I'll caution you once again.  I have seen this in the long range before only to have the models back off of it.  With that said, the kiddos will be eagerly watching and hoping to extend their Christmas break.  I know I did way back when! LOL!

Below are maps from the Euro on weatherbell.com.  It should be noted the Global Forecasting System (GFS) is not as enthusiastic as the Euro when it comes to winter precipitation.  This is to be expected.  Rarely is there agreement in the long range.

The Euro shows a little snow for northern AR as the precipitation comes to an end on Thursday.

The Euro shows another, but more significant swath of snow across central and northern Arkansas next Sunday.  Once again, long range forecasting is very tricky and I GUARANTEE YOU THIS WILL NOT VERIFY EXACTLY.  IT COULD BE MORE OR LESS.  STAY TUNED!

Top 7 Weather Stories of 2013

It was another crazy year in Arkansas Weather.  It would be unusual if it wasn't.  There are several events that stand out as the biggest of 2013.  First, there were many who were either killed or injured because our violent weather.  Our goal each year is to reduce this as much as possible with the best advance warning.  The top 7 weather events of 2013 follows.

2013

7. DECEMBER 20TH-21ST SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING

Severe weather and flooding during the winter months isn't unusual in Arkansas.  Around 5-8 inches of rain fell throughout much of central Arkansas and 3 tornadoes were reported: Redfield, northern Chicot/southern Desha counties, and Hughes.  One woman was killed in Hughes and 3 were injured.

Tornado damage in Haley, AR located in southern Desha county.  Picture courtesy of the National Weather Service office

Flood waters in southeast Arkansas.  Picture courtesy of the National Weather Service office

6. DECEMBER 5TH AND 6TH SNOW/ICE STORM

We got off to a quick start with winter weather in December as almost a foot of snow fell across far northern Arkansas.  Freezing rain fell across portions of the Arkansas River Valley and west central Arkansas.  Pope county was the hardest hit with several thousand without electricity.  A few inches of sleet piled up across central and northeast Arkansas.  The kids were able to get 2 days off from school in many locations.

A thick glaze of ice atop Mount Nebo.

More incredible ice formations on Mount Nebo

Sleet piled up in many locations with 1-2 inches common.

5.   SPRING BREAK SNOW IN MARCH

Some escaped and headed for the beach. If you didn't, you got to play in an early spring season snowstorm across northern Arkansas.  As much as 8 inches fell in Salem.  We thought surely this would be the last snow of the season.  Boy, was that idea wrong.

8'' of heavy, wet snow in Salem.

Accumulating snow made it as far south as Guy, Arkansas

Snow on the spring daffodils

Total snowfall

4. BOTKINBURG TORNADO ON APRIL 10TH

The Botkinburg community in northern Arkansas was devastated by an EF-2 tornado.  with the Foursquare Church taking a direct hit.  4 other tornadoes were reported that day along with several injuries.

Still shot of the EF-2 tornado

 3.   MAY 31ST FLOODING (SCOTT COUNTY)

From the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock,

"Perhaps the biggest headliner was the rain. Two to more than five inches of rain fell from Mena (Polk County) to Hot Springs (Garland County), Little Rock (Pulaski County) and Newport (Jackson County) in the twenty four hour period ending at 700 am CDT on the 31st. Amounts included 7.78 inches at Parks (Scott County), 7.55 inches at Big Fork (Polk County), 6.33 inches at Blakely Mountain Dam (Garland County), 6.25 inches at Lake Poinsett State Park (Poinsett County) and 6.13 inches at Oden (Montgomery County).
Little Rock (Pulaski County) Adams Field received 3.09 inches between 817 pm CDT and 917 pm CDT on the 30th. This broke the all-time one hour rainfall record at the site."

" Unfortunately, raging water claimed five lives close to Y City (Scott County). This included the county sheriff and a wildlife officer who were performing a rescue on the Fourche LaFave River. Closeby, an apparent drowning victim was found in her car. At Little Rock (Pulaski County), a body was discovered in Coleman Creek after water levels dropped."

Brushy Creek.  Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock.

2.  MAY 30TH TORNADO OUTBREAK.

14 tornadoes were reported this day across southwestern and central Arkansas.  There were 11 injuries that day caused by the storms and 1 man died in Tull located in Grant county.  A tree fell on his truck while driving northbound on his way to work.

This amazing home video captured a tornado going over Lake Ouachita.

This tornado hit Oden in Montgomery county.

1.  MAY 3RD SNOW AND RECORD COLD SPRING

The latest snow ever recorded in Arkansas weather history fell on May 3rd across Washington, Carroll, Madison, and Benton counties.  As many had their sights set on summer vacation just a few weeks away, 1-4 inches of heavy, wet snow fell.  The spring of 2013 set all kinds of cold weather records across the state.  While it didn't snow in central Arkansas, our high temperature on May 3rd only made it to 53 degrees with a low of 38 degrees.  That was more than 20 degrees below the average.  With more than 100 years of recorded weather history, this surely was a remarkable event and it's very unlikely we'll ever see May snow fall again in Arkansas in our lifetime.

This pretty much sums up what everyone was thinking on the morning of May 3rd in northwest Arkansas.

This is what you would expect in January or February, NOT MAY!

Siloam Springs on May 3rd.

Springdale on May 3rd.

A Little Snow Possible For Some Of You

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

It's not going to be much at all, but I think there will be a few flakes flying Sunday night into Monday morning.  This blog goes in-depth and shows you exactly what you can expect using hi resolution model guidance.  Also, I have a sneak peak into 2014.  Thanks and enjoy.

Flakes Could Fly

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

Before I get into this brief post, I just wanted to thank you.  We set a record here on the blog this month and it isn't even over yet!  According to the numbers, we had the most "hits" EVER in a single month.  That's really saying something since this blog is now 7 years old.  I can't release the numbers, but it's well into the hundreds of thousands.  WOW!  I love it you come here for your information. 

We have another shot of arctic arriving late this weekend and there could be a little moisture squeezed out.  This is NOT an ideal set up for anything significant.  The 00Z run of the North American Model went a little crazy with accumulations, but I'm not buying into that at this time since it seems to be well overdone compared to all the data out there.  Again, this is not an ideal set up since moisture is limited.  A northwesterly wind flow in the upper levels is not conducive to any major precipitation amounts in the winter.

With all that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes fly Sunday night into Monday morning with reports of a light dusting in some locations.  Here are the maps from weatherbell.com

The European model shows all amounts well under 1'' for portions of central and southeast Arkansas.

The GFS has shown some accumulations on previous model runs, but the overnight one was DRY!

The NAM has been the most aggressive.  The 00Z run went a little crazy and overboard, but the 06Z run showed much less, but still more than most of the other models.  Notice the target area is southern Arkansas just like the Euro.  According to this, a dusting to 2'' could fall.  HOWEVER, I DON'T SEE THIS AS CREDIBLE AT THIS TIME. I'll let you know if that changes.

The Canadian model shows a general, large area of 1'' or less across a large section of the state.

In summary, like I said, this is NOT the way we get significant snows here in Arkansas.  Moisture is lacking so I'm not putting much stock in the models that show snow accumulations.  At this point, I think it's safe to say we'll have reports of flurries and some light snow.  There could even be a dusting and the favored areas would be central and southeast Arkansas.  IF ANYTHING CHANGES, I'LL LET YOU KNOW!

Thanks again for coming here to the blog!

Christmas Cold and Beyond

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

We went from "Mild to Wild" last week.  What will the next couple bring?  This video blog helps answer that for you.

Saturday Soaker/Severe Update

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I really don't have much in the way of changes this Friday morning.  The track of the surface low looks further south compared to the past few days.  This will bring the heaviest swath of rain right through the metro, IF THE MODELS ARE RIGHT.  The favored area of any severe weather will be southeast Arkansas.  This too is uncertain depending on how much instability develops there.  We want thick clouds and rain to reduce the threat.  However, please prepare there and I'll show you a map below which shows the moderate risk area issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  The main threat for the Channel 7 viewing area is flooding rainfall, then severe weather.

There are differences between the models as to where a sharp boundary will set up.  If you're north of it, the severe weather threat is greatly diminished, if you're along or ahead of it, it's enhanced some depending on instability values.  Once again, the favored area is southeast Arkansas.  Can this still change?  Absolutely.  Below are maps which explains this situation.  Some of the maps are from weatherbell.com

This is a hires model known as the WRF.  Look at that boundary at 6 AM Saturday.  It's sharp!.  Little Rock well into the 60s while Faulkner county is in the 40s.  Look at Hot Springs.  It's 67, but Mount Ida is 44!  WOW!  There are other models which indicate the boundary will be a little further north, but this is a possibility.  The warm sector (SE AR) has the greatest threat for severe.

By noon, the boundary is through LR... according to this 1 model.  It's in the 40s in NLR while Pine Bluff is 73!  Again, there are other models which have this boundary north.  The surface low will ride along this boundary and this will be the focus for the heaviest rainfall, right through central Arkansas.  The severe threat continues to evolve for SE AR

By 6 PM, the threat is decreasing for most of the state with the main severe threat near the MS River.  Rain is ending from west to east at this time.

The Euro shows heavy, heavy rain in a swath from SW to NE AR from 6 AM to 6 PM Saturday.  The surface low is near Hope and it's moving along that boundary to the NE.

By 6PM, the severe threat is focused to the east, especially SE Arkansas.  More heavy rain across central AR and SE AR.  The surface low is near Little Rock moving NE.

Futurecast shows 3-4 inches all throughout the metro for total rainfall.  A flash flood watch is in effect for most of the state.

9AM Futurecast indicates heavy rain except in SE AR.  We need rain and clouds there to minimize the instability.

At Noon, the heavy rain is continuing across much of the state, especially the area in yellow and orange.

By 4 PM, the rain is decreasing across western and central AR.  Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue across the east, but should diminish around 6-8 PM.

A slight risk for severe weather Saturday for much of the SE half of the state including the metro.  Remember, it's areas south and east of that sharp boundary I showed above.  A moderate risk is possible across eastern and southeastern Arkansas, especially if any destabilization occurs.  STAY TUNED!!!!