Once again there's so much to discuss in the long range, I keep asking myself "where do I begin?" Yesterday (Wednesday), we first discussed the possibility for not 1, but 2 episodes of wintry weather. The first arrives Sunday as a wave of low pressure develops along the arctic boundary. This should bring rain changing to snow Sunday, especially across northern Arkansas. The big weather story will then turn to the very cold air which engulfs the region, including Arkansas.
Remember in the video I talked about the retreating arctic air next Wednesday and a moisture plume moving northward out of the Gulf? Once again the models are indicating that scenario. Usually arctic air is tougher to dislodge than the models suggest. Here's why. Arctic air is very heavy like a brick. Try moving that brick with the force of a garden hose (the Gulf moisture). The warm, moist air from the Gulf usually begins to override the dense cold air at the surface and this produces clouds and precipitation. The time it takes to scour out the arctic air is usually slower than the models indicate. Also, due to the warming aloft and the cold air at the surface, ice can become a problem. While this is still in the long range, it must be watched carefully.
HERE'S WHAT I'M ASKING YOU TO THINK ABOUT OVER THE NEXT WEEK: PETS, PIPES, AND PEOPLE! This type of cold will take its toll on all three! Also, with the cold weather today (Thursday) and into Friday, then the plunge of colder air next week, small ponds will begin to freeze over. They will be very tempting for kids to play on. DO YOUR BEST TO KEEP THEM OFF. Knowing the thickness of that ice is very difficult and it may be easy to fall in. It can become a deadly situation. A similar outbreak of arctic air happened years and years ago and this became a problem. Let's do our best to keep the kiddos safe too!
Check out the model maps below from weatherbell.com
|The GFS wind chill forecast Monday morning shows readings well below zero for the northern 1/3 of the state. This may warrant a WIND CHILL ADVISORY.|
|Tuesday morning temperatures will continue to be very cold with lows in the single digits and teens.|