Thursday, April 03, 2014

Severe Weather Thursday PM Update


Live streaming video by Ustream We had a little taste of the severe weather early this morning as an upper air disturbance moved over an unstable air mass.  You could really feel how unstable it was this morning with lots of humidity and lows only around 70 degrees.  I still believe the main action will arrive late this Thursday afternoon and into the evening.  The only good news about it coming in later is the fact instability levels won't be quite as high, however, I still fully expect severe weather with the main threats being high winds and hail.  Tornadoes will also be possible.

Below is the early afternoon run of the HRRR model.  I really like this thing.  It's doing a great job.  It's NOT perfect, but no model is!  

Remember what I have been saying, there is no need to panic, just prepare!!!!

By 6PM, a line of individual cells could be going over western and northern Arkansas.  All modes of severe weather will be possible.  Remember, this will not be exact, but it does give you a good general idea.
By 7PM, the line looks nasty over NE AR with cells across central and southwest.
By 9PM, the cells continue from SW to NE Arkansas.
10PM Simulated radar
Midnight simulated radar.

3 comments:

Denise said...

So it will be doing a train effect for hours and hours?!

Anonymous said...

Channel 7 was right on this storm front. First round Wednesday night and storms, rain, hail, chance of tornado for Thursday. You may need to get a better source for info.

Anonymous said...

Well, looks like the forecast was pretty much busted.