Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Clash Of The Air Masses Thursday



You may remember last Thursday my post about the active weather on the horizon and the possibility for at least some severe weather this Thursday.  Since our weather has not been active lately, I thought it was important to start raising awareness.  I know many are probably not in the mode of thinking about severe weather at this time, but it's a reality as we head into October and especially November and December.

Remember the winter forecast post with meteorologist Joe Bastardi's prediction?  He says this winter will be similar to 2002/2003 and 2009/2010.  Each of those falls brought an active severe weather season.  There have been cases when the fall is actually more active than spring.  If you take the Mayflower/Vilonia tornado out of the equation (and I know we all wish we could), last spring would have gone down as one of the quietest severe weather seasons in a long time!

It's really tough to go from warm/humid to cool/dry without an eruption of thunderstorms.  At this time, we're expecting storms to sweep across the state Thursday afternoon and evening.  The main threats will be wind and hail.  The tornado threat will not be high, but it will need to be watched.  The other threat is heavy rainfall.  We could actually use some!  Amounts could easily exceed 1 inch in spots.

This is a very fast moving system so it will out of here early Friday morning.

Surface weather map at 7AM Thursday.  The front is still off to the west.  This will allow instability to develop ahead of it during the heating of the day.
The GFS indicates significant instability Thursday afternoon across much of the state, especially the west and southwest.
Simulated radar from the NAM indicates a line of storms around 7PM moving into central Arkansas. THIS WILL CHANGE. THE TIMING AND STORM EVOLUTION CAN STILL BE DIFFERENT AS WE'RE  A COUPLE DAYS OUT.
We need a little rain!  Amounts will be highest across the west with 1-2 inches possible.
Here's some good news.  Look at these lows Saturday morning from the latest GFS (Tuesday AM).  That's right!  Upper 40s!!!!!!!
The SPC has placed all of Arkansas in a slight risk for severe weather Thursday.

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