Wednesday, October 01, 2014

BIG Storms, Then A BIG Chill



2PM Wednesday Update... newest data detailing timing of storms, threats, and the cold air following.




After weeks of quiet weather, mother nature is about to wake up.  I really have no changes to what I have been discussing over the past several days.  It continues to look like a line of storms will traverse the state late Thursday into Thursday evening.  The main threats will be wind and hail.  An isolated tornado can't be ruled out, but the threat is low.

The air mass behind the front will likely turn out to be the coldest so far this season.  We may even be wearing jackets during our coverage of "Race For The Cure".  The overnight run of the GFS even indicates a strong north breeze Saturday morning will create our first "wind chills" of the season!  Chili anyone?  Without beans of course.  I think that will be a popular dinner come Saturday night!  Here are a few maps explaining the situation and the timing.  Some of these maps are courtesy of weatherbell.com

As I always say, simulated radar will not be perfect, but it does give us a good idea what radar should look like.  By 7PM Thursday, a line of storms will be entering the western portion of the state.  The main threats will be wind, hail, and heavy rainfall.
By 10 PM, the line is entering central Arkansas according to this one model.  It could be a little faster so keep that in mind.
By 4AM Friday, the line is mostly out of Arkansas and is likely weakening.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Arkansas under a slight risk for severe weather.  The highest threat will be across western and central Arkansas.
Rainfall amounts will generally average around 1-2 inches.
Lows Saturday morning according to this one run of the GFS will be in the 40s!  If that happens, it will be the coldest morning so far this season.
A strong north wind behind the front will usher in wind chill values in the 30s and low 40s.  Remember, the wind blowing between buildings around downtown Little Rock could reduce the wind chill reading further.
Afternoon highs Saturday will only make it into the 60s and 70s.  Saturday night temperatures will drop well into the 40s and 50s.  Chili?  Sounds good for dinner!!!!

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