Saturday, November 15, 2014

Sunday Snow


I think the cold weather this past week has lived up to all expectations.  Several days ago, I mentioned the next week will be even colder and I continue to think Monday and Tuesday could be the coldest days out of this entire cold snap.  Winds will be howling Monday morning into the afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 30s for most of the day.  A new area of cold high pressure settles into the state Tuesday morning and that's when we'll experience the coldest temperatures so far this season with many locations getting into the teens and lower 20s for lows.  After that, temperatures should begin to warm up, but stay a touch below average.

Now let's talk about what you really want to know. SNOW!  We have 2 waves of moisture to watch through Monday morning.  The first one arrives tonight and will affect mainly central and southern Arkansas.  This could begin as a light wintry mix on the northern fringe, then change over to a cold rain.  Temperatures will stay above freezing so we're not expecting this to be anything except wet roads, but we'll watch it.

The more significant system to watch is late Sunday into the overnight as deeper and stronger cold air moves through along with another disturbance.  I think we'll have light rain change to a light wintry mix, then to some light snow for much of northern, then central Arkansas.  This is what I'm calling a "nuisance snow".  It's NOT a major storm whatsoever, so NO need to run out to the store.  There's the POTENTIAL for a few slick spots for only a few hours Sunday night into Monday morning, then temperatures will go above freezing.  Check out the following maps detailing the specific timing from our exclusive model, "Futurecast".

Sunday 4PM we see a wintry mix to snow across NW Arkansas.
By 8PM, the purple indicates a wintry mix and the light blue over NW Arkansas shows snow.  The leading edge is getting into the western areas of central Arkansas.
By 11PM, we have a mix of light rain and sleet over central and NE Arkansas with light snow over western and NW Arkansas.
At midnight... as the stronger and deeper cold air entrenches itself, the mix turns to light snow over western, central, and north central Arkansas with a mix northwest.  Further south, it's just a cold rain.
By 3AM, It's mostly gone with a little lingering snow close to the Mississippi River.
Preliminary snowfall amounts.  This can still change.  It looks like the highest amounts will be over the higher elevations of northern Arkansas with 1-2 inches.  Further south, just a dusting to 1'' mainly west and north of Little Rock.
Lows Tuesday morning will be in the teens and low 20s across the state. BRRRRRRRR
Wind chill readings Tuesday morning could be in the single digits north to teens elsewhere.

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